Birds~69 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think the issue is days ago this looked like a major hit for the forum area and then the trend went south. I think forum members disappointment is validated. A 4" snow fall on it's own is not disappointing, but the potential of getting 8" or more and then reduced to 4", how could you not be bummed. Here's an analogy. You're at the casino and up a $1000 and put $150 on your last hand and lose. Yeah it stings a bit BUT you are still up $850...this is good! I'd drive home w/a shiet eating grin on my face... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I certainly hope u r not talking about me. Go back and look at my posts. They have never been bullish. This storm was modeled as a two wave system days ago with low rates for a long duration. It was only ever modeled as a large foot + event for a short period. Assuming overrunning storm was going to produce those types of rates was not very wise imo They fooled most of the local mets though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Here's an analogy. You're at the casino and up a $1000 and put $150 on your last hand and lose. Yeah it stings a bit BUT you are still up $850...this is good! I'd drive home w/a shiet eating grin on my face... I don't gamble, but if I did and won $1000, I'd cash out right away...lol. You get my point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 They fooled most of the local mets though. True and I sorta bought in as well, but without a true coastal following up the overrunning moisture, not sure how those numbers could be realized over such a large area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 True and I sorta bought in as well, but without a true coastal following up the overrunning moisture, not sure how those numbers could be realized over such a large area Yeah, all the media went too big too far out for this setup and now are unable to walk it back enough. It looks like the backlash could be ugly tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah, all the media went too big too far out for this setup and now are unable to walk it back enough. It looks like the backlash could be ugly tomorrow. the moisture was there to work with, it is just suppression became more and more of an issue as the event drew near. The strength of the PV was not modeled well a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 If someplace south of here winds up with 10 or 12", it will tend to validate that it's not the qpf for this event that was off, but the path of the storm, which as of Thursday had the axis of heaviest precipitation over Pennsylvania, and as we know too well shifted slowly south by 100 to 150 miles since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 If someplace south of here winds up with 10 or 12", it will tend to validate that it's not the qpf for this event that was off, but the path of the storm, which as of Thursday had the axis of heaviest precipitation over Pennsylvania, and as we know too well shifted slowly south by 100 to 150 miles since then. For the sake of this model hugging forum, the modeling is what needs to be validated. Weenies stay up night after night for it, weenies question why certified mets ride it or reject it. This was horribly modeled to the point that respected mets had to channel down. New thread idea... What is the real world benefit of LR models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think the issue is days ago this looked like a major hit for the forum area and then the trend went south. I think forum members disappointment is validated. A 4" snow fall on it's own is not disappointing, but the potential of getting 8" or more and then reduced to 4", how could you not be bummed. I understand that I guess, but this wasn't that sudden. Its been trending south for awhile now. People also put WAYYYY too much trust in the models. How many times do you seriously have to burned to learn that models are ALWAYS wrong.....sometimes even 24 hours out. Really, models should be used for entertainment purposes only when it comes to snowstorms. This hobby is very fickle. Busted forecasts happen more often than not. I think people should understand that by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I wrote this back on Friday, shortly after I made my "5-10" initial call for TTN (which is going to bust). "this has always felt unstable to me. The path of heavy snow has been narrow and a mild shift in track can have large repercusions. The interaction between the southern stream shortwave and the "polar vortex" is critical." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I understand that I guess, but this wasn't that sudden. Its been trending south for awhile now. People also put WAYYYY too much trust in the models. How many times do you seriously have to burned to learn that models are ALWAYS wrong.....sometimes even 24 hours out. Really, models should be used for entertainment purposes only when it comes to snowstorms. This hobby is very fickle. Busted forecasts happen more often than not. I think people should understand that by now. Awesome post. I love snowfall and the workings of the atmosphere... But it's fascinating that people choose to lose nights of sleep for such computer generated fallacies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 For the sake of this model hugging forum, the modeling is what needs to be validated. Weenies stay up night after night for it, weenies question why certified mets ride it or reject it. This was horribly modeled to the point that respected mets had to channel down. New thread idea... What is the real world benefit of LR models? LR Models are a valuable tool to a forecaster. The problem isn't with the models, but with people who don't know how to properly weigh model output. A well-trained met knows that in both long and medium range, models are a guide, a clue to how things may develop. The problem is anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of reading models can now see if the GFS is modeling a snowstorm 7 days out. This kind of information in the wrong hands can lead to crazy facebook snow forecasts and the like. Sometimes when information is widely available, you have to take the good with the bad. It is no accident that every year on these boards, people continue to insist that the models are doing worse than ever, when in fact they are getting better. I really think a lot of the problem here is perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 BTW, remember that old saying I brought up about being in the bullseye several days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 LR Models are a valuable tool to a forecaster.How so because the rest of your post failed to outline it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 BTW, remember that old saying I brought up about being in the bullseye several days out? We're paying for that one aren't we, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Awesome post. I love snowfall and the workings of the atmosphere... But it's fascinating that people choose to lose nights of sleep for such computer generated fallacies. Thanks! Yep, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR looking a little better in latest run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 How so because the rest of your post failed to outline it. I guess I thought it was self-evident....do you contend that LR models do not benefit forecasters in any way? For example, a few weeks prior to the February 12-13 storm, I recall several Mets commenting on how the pattern was favorable for a possible EC storm. The Euro, for example, really locked into that storm from a week out. Another example-We have known for a few weeks now that early March would be cold w/storm chances. Perhaps Ray or another Met could elaborate more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 A well-trained met knows that in both long and medium range, models are a guide, a clue to how things may develop. Are they a clue like having the bp from LAX, temp from FTW and the cloud cover in BWI? I get the possibility aspect but what's the practicality benefit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Are they a clue like having the bp from LAX, temp from FTW and the cloud cover in BWI? I get the possibility aspect but what's the practicality benefit? Ask a successful energy forecaster if there is any practicality benefit! beyond the financial though, there is a societal benefit to being able to anticipate any type of severe weather event in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We're getting OT here, but I do think long range models have value. They are more likely to get the overall pattern right, than not. At least out 7-10 days. But people were harping on the details of this one 5 days ago. That was a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_ne.gif HRRR for those that want to believe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We're getting OT here, but I do think long range models have value. They are more likely to get the overall pattern right, than not. At least out 7-10 days. But people were harping on the details of this one 5 days ago. That was a mistake. yup, it is just the case of people having access to these tools and not knowing how to correctly use them. Anyway, we can have this convo another time, although I'm happy this forum is civil enough where we can have these kind of discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_ne.gif HRRR for those that want to believe.... Per the HRR some moderate to near Heavy Snow just in time for rush hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_ne.gif HRRR for those that want to believe.... there would be a nice period of pretty heavy snow in the am per the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 NAM ticked north a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 NAM ticked north a tad Not sure about Phillly but its actually a bit drier at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think TTN will be hard pressed to see 3 ". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 New nam not good for Philly imop. Less qpf. Time to drop the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Nam got wetter on its northern side, ticked a bit, but is such a sharp cutoff its crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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