Harbourton Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I have been checking the radar, and I'm not unconcerned, but it seems as the 2nd wave comes north there is the expectation for the precip to overspread the Mason Dixon line again, and that's where most of our snow should come from. We've had a great year. Just have to accept what comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not attacking. You are just wrong when compared to forecasts. Period You really have no idea of the difference between interpreting a model run and a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_ne.gif For those that want to believe...I give you the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_ne.gif For those that want to believe...I give you the HRRR ah HRRR i've missed you so! all kidding aside there should be a nice period of snow tonight into tomorrow...may not get the big event from a few days ago but tomorrow should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You really have no idea of the difference between interpreting a model run and a forecast.forecasts are way over what is being modeled as far as qpf AND the fact that qpf is not all snow and for some of the event light and not accumulatingSo are you telling me you were just interpreting the model? If so, you were interpreting it poorly. If not, then what is YOUR forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ahh if only it wasn't the HRRR. Wouldn't it be something if that sim radar verified? Here's to hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest Wxsim has around 4" of snow for NW Chesco before ending by 1030am tomorrow....matches latest HRRR with heaviest snow between 4 and 7am tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Round 1 ... fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Lots of negativity. In the grand scheme of things, does 3-4 inches of snow really provide that MUCH less enjoyment than say 8 or 9 inches? You track it, it falls, it whitens the ground, you shovel it off and move on. Its just a bit less to shovel. It might not look quite as deep. God forbid. Cheer up. Its March. We had a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Round 1 ... fail I think most of us knew Round 1 wasn't going to work out for a few days now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Round 1 ... fail I don't think recently it was ever supposed to succeed? Maybe a coating or so. Temps are down...wait for the second batch. Things will be white in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Lots of negativity. In the grand scheme of things, does 3-4 inches of snow really provide that MUCH less enjoyment than say 8 or 9 inches? You track it, it falls, it whitens the ground, you shovel it off and move on. Its just a bit less to shovel. It might not look quite as deep. God forbid. Cheer up. Its March. We had a great winter. I think most on this board would be very happy with 3 or 4 inches lol. I agree though, there's no use bickering over a few inches, it's just depressing to think what this storm could have been. What an amazing turn of events from 24 hours ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Round 1 ... fail Partly cloudy up north. Still looking for my 2-4 inches.... Edit my post. Mt Holly NWS is calling for less than an inch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Round 1 ... fail What happens if Rd 2 fails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Glenn's totals just now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What happens if Rd 2 fails? Great winter...oh well. Life goes on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Glenn's totals just now... Should be interesting tomorrow morning, will be in the low 20's (if that) and snowing, don't see that in March very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 forecasts are way over what is being modeled as far as qpf AND the fact that qpf is not all snow and for some of the event light and not accumulating So are you telling me you were just interpreting the model? If so, you were interpreting it poorly. If not, then what is YOUR forecast? So your saying forecasts should be based merely on model output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 So your saying forecasts should be based merely on model output? No it should be used as a tool. This was always an overrunning event and the high totals I always thought were over the top. I also can clearly see that the rates are going to be very low and light snow (regardless of time of day) will have a tough time accumulating in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think most of us knew Round 1 wasn't going to work out for a few days now...agreed but just noting that rd 1 sucked anyway :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Should be interesting tomorrow morning, will be in the low 20's (if that) and snowing, don't see that in March very often. Exactly. A couple/several inches w/a couple days of nice cold. Solid. Oh yeah, it's March. Some of us think it's early Jan/Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Exactly. A couple/several inches w/a couple days of nice cold. Solid. Oh yeah, it's March. Some of us think it's early Jan/Feb... It may feel like January tomorrow though! Hopefully we end up with a nice 3-6 inch event, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 New NWS map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Lots of negativity. In the grand scheme of things, does 3-4 inches of snow really provide that MUCH less enjoyment than say 8 or 9 inches? You track it, it falls, it whitens the ground, you shovel it off and move on. Its just a bit less to shovel. It might not look quite as deep. God forbid. Cheer up. Its March. We had a great winter. I think the issue is days ago this looked like a major hit for the forum area and then the trend went south. I think forum members disappointment is validated. A 4" snow fall on it's own is not disappointing, but the potential of getting 8" or more and then reduced to 4", how could you not be bummed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think the issue is days ago this looked like a major hit for the forum area and then the trend went south. I think forum members disappointment is validated. A 4" snow fall on it's own is not disappointing, but the potential of getting 8" or more and then reduced to 4", how could you not be bummed. I think we knew there were a lot of potential hiccups with this storm....many mets warned that the PV could be stronger than modeled, and lead to a more suppressed solution. Speaking for myself, I get frustrated when people cry bust before the event is done. We've known for a few days now that the real action would be with the 2nd wave. (not saying you did this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think we knew there were a lot of potential hiccups with this storm....many mets warned that the PV could be stronger than modeled, and lead to a more suppressed solution. Speaking for myself, I get frustrated when people cry bust before the event is done. We've known for a few days now that the real action would be with the 2nd wave. The irony of all of this is expectations were based off models(not everyone's) and now the told you so crowd is using models to support their argument. Arm chair quarterbacking at it's best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 RAP and HRRR look terrible, though with their performances recently that might be a good thing for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah HRRR looks unenthusiastic to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 RAP and HRRR look terrible, though with their performances recently that might be a good thing for us do you have a link to HRRR? Last run i saw looked decent. NVM, i see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The irony of all of this is expectations were based off models(not everyone's) and now the told you so crowd is using models to support their argument. Arm chair quarterbacking at it's best... I certainly hope u r not talking about me. Go back and look at my posts. They have never been bullish. This storm was modeled as a two wave system days ago with low rates for a long duration. It was only ever modeled as a large foot + event for a short period. Assuming overrunning storm was going to produce those types of rates was not very wise imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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