cast4 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Still looks high from Philly and immediate NW suburbs Yeah, it looks like they are going to do a gradual stepdown to try to save some face. This one was pretty much impossible to forecast for from 48 hours out with the models the way they were. Gotta give credit to the GEM which was the only model initially showing the frontal passage like solution with the second wave suppressed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What basis? Just a feeling? I think we are still a solid 6-10 down here according to guidance and forecasts Just seeing the models continually push things further and further south. Latest NAM has me in the 5" band, GFS a bit more as of now but I expect that to push further south at 18z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ken, I didnt realize you moved to Oklahoma. I hope all is well with you. Even if this one doesnt work, its tough to feel bad about a winter that could still be the 2nd snowiest in history. Tony, Yeah, I moved last June. This is my wife's hometown so it made sense for all the right reasons (but that hasn't made me any less jealous watching you folks get dumped on this winter. Lol.). I still have friends and family in South Jersey so I always have the option of flying home if a particularly awesome bit of weather seems to be bearing down, and, thankfully, this winter has been fairly interesting even down here so the transition hasn't been as painful as I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just seeing the models continually push things further and further south. Latest NAM has me in the 5" band, GFS a bit more as of now but I expect that to push further south at 18z as well. I get it but shouldn't ratios be good w very cold temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Tony, Yeah, I moved last June. This is my wife's hometown so it made sense for all the right reasons (but that hasn't made me any less jealous watching you folks get dumped on this winter. Lol.). I still have friends and family in South Jersey so I always have the option of flying home if a particularly awesome bit of weather seems to be bearing down, and, thankfully, this winter has been fairly interesting even down here so the transition hasn't been as painful as I expected. At least you are now not too far from Norman. It would probably be pretty cool to visit.... Will think of you everytime they bust in with a severe weather statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I get it but shouldn't ratios be good w very cold temps? They should but that only helps really if we are in the heavier snow bands. We really won't get get great ratios if its just continuous light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I am doing my best. Lol. It is insane out here. We've had heavy sleet with thunder and lightning for the better part of three hours.... all with temps hovering around 12 F in my backyard. I don't know where these dynamics are headed, but it sure would be fitting (and awesome for those of you in the path) if they found a way to pass through Cherry Hill. Whatever happens, this transplanted New Jerseyan will be rooting for somebody in the Delaware Valley to jackpot. Good luck and Godspeed, gentlemen (and ladies). Now that sounds pretty cool to experience...The BIG question is...is the storm performing as forecasted out that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gfs looks decent for Phil area esp south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gfs looks decent for Phil area esp south Definitely north of Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gfs looks decent for Phil area esp south Ur kidding, right? It is no better for PHL when compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not sure if the expected 8-10 inches is really going to play out here. Really liked that HRRR radar forecast, but I don't know how accurate it is. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ur kidding, right? It is no better for PHL when compared to 12Z It's 4-6 for the city, that's pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS definitely looks a smidge better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ur kidding, right? It is no better for PHL when compared to 12Z Do NOT start attacking my posts, I said it looked decent for PHL south, did I mention the 12z GFS? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ur kidding, right? It is no better for PHL when compared to 12Z But for those who thought south trend would continue w 18z gfs it absolutely did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Increased QPF in some areas: MIV went up .13 in the frozen portion of the storm. ACY gets roughly another .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Really looks like somebody in S. Jersey is going to do well if the W-E bands setup along the middle/upper reaches of the precip field. I only use minimal science along with my many years of living in the region, but I feel like I have seen these storms surprise people before. Depending on deepening of the secondary and progression North, people from Carney's Point, NJ - Atlantic City, NJ/Tuckerton, NJ may do very well (And points 10-20 miles N. and S.). I can't believe the cold air will win out any further south than that to suppress this thing. WV is starting to really become impressive. Not buying a wide area of 6-10 as depicted on the NWS map, but somebody will luck out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS definitely looks a smidge better than 12z. It's the 18z - no new input. Just extrapolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM and GFS both a tad better at 18z. Looks like models have stabilized. Still like 4-6 near I95 more south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's the 18z - no new input. Just extrapolating. Huh? 18z models definitely do get new data fed into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's 4-6 for the city, that's pretty decent Ur fooling yourself. It may be .4 qpf, but it certainly isn't 4-6" for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Do NOT start attacking my posts, I said it looked decent for PHL south, did I mention the 12z GFS? No. Not attacking. You are just wrong when compared to forecasts. Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 4-6" would still be a great storm this time of year. Hopefully the Mt. Holly office isn't just gradually downplaying the map instead of making drastic leaps out of fear of the public's wrath. I don't know that they would do that. I don't have a crystal ball for this event, but much more often than not this winter the NWS accumulation forecast has verified here. It seems there is an expectation (myself included) of how the details of a storm will evolve, and in reality the details are (often) somewhat different, but in the end the qpf or accumulation seems to verify. They are the experts, and yes forecasts can bust, but my thinking is that the new accumulation map is their best attempt to get it right based on all the information and experience they have. So I find it somewhat reassuring that the totals didn't get knocked down all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ur fooling yourself. It may be .4 qpf, but it certainly isn't 4-6" for the city Just going off IWM, here is the link http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030 Looks slightly better than 12z to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't know that they would do that. I don't have a crystal ball for this event, but much more often than not this winter the NWS accumulation forecast has verified here. It seems there is an expectation (myself included) of how the details of a storm will evolve, and in reality the details are (often) somewhat different, but in the end the qpf or accumulation seems to verify. They are the experts, and yes forecasts can bust, but my thinking is that the new accumulation map is their best attempt to get it right based on all the information and experience they have. So I find it somewhat reassuring that the totals didn't get knocked down all that much. I did have second thoughts about my wording in that post and perhaps it was better left unsaid, but I am still a bit skeptical based on the doom and gloom of the storm cancel being alerted. IMO, it does have model support by purely looking at the model output. Others state otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't know that they would do that. I don't have a crystal ball for this event, but much more often than not this winter the NWS accumulation forecast has verified here. It seems there is an expectation (myself included) of how the details of a storm will evolve, and in reality the details are (often) somewhat different, but in the end the qpf or accumulation seems to verify. They are the experts, and yes forecasts can bust, but my thinking is that the new accumulation map is their best attempt to get it right based on all the information and experience they have. So I find it somewhat reassuring that the totals didn't get knocked down all that much. Check the radar. Most of the heavier precip is paralleling the southern Pa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Check the radar. Most of the heavier precip is paralleling the southern Pa border. I have been checking the radar, and I'm not unconcerned, but it seems as the 2nd wave comes north there is the expectation for the precip to overspread the Mason Dixon line again, and that's where most of our snow should come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 After an hour or so of sleet, now light snow...35.4. Looks about halftime coming soon for Philly N and W. No accumulation (which wasn't expected) but at least the temps lowered. Hopefully Rd 2 pans out for a couple inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Now over to light snow. 34.3. Light NNW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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