Jersey Shore snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREFs ticked north a bit. .50 line from just north of Trenton to around Sea Bright. 03z run had it right along 40N from south of Trenton to Brick. 1.00 line has entered NJ for the first time way down along southern Salem/Cumberland and Cape May Counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Agreed it is probably a long shot, but models are never perfect, the 6z run before the lions-eagles game, all of the models had like .1-.2 total precip for Philly, we know what happened....In my lifetime, I'd say 75% of the storms, there is always 2 good ticks north before a storm. I'm not talking about giant shifts or anything, but I think the first batch could over perform, and if we get that 2nd in to our area, enough to clip it, we could see 4-8" totals....Honestly, a week ago if someone told you we'd get 4-8" you'd lock that up in a heart beat ralphy.Here hoping for a few ticks north! And 4-8" is not a bad call attm for extreme southern pa imo. Could still bust either way tho. That death band will likely be narrow like december 8 so we're gonna be nowcasting tomorrow and willing that band northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Here hoping for a few ticks north! And 4-8" is not a bad call attm for extreme southern pa imo. Could still bust either way tho. That death band will likely be narrow like december 8 so we're gonna be nowcasting tomorrow and willing that band northward. Hell, the 18z runs before the 2nd part of the MECS were too far SE....things can change, we're right on the cusp. Are you still going to Cape May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For kicks and giggles the sref has a fair amount of spread to the north of the surface wave. So perhaps this does have a tick or so north in it? I shall try and remain positive regardless of result of 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hell, the 18z runs before the 2nd part of the MECS were too far SE....things can change, we're right on the cusp. Are you still going to Cape May?going tonight as of now yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Still think that PHL is on the NCAA tournament bubble with this storm. For those not into basketball (very close call). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 a lot of now casting with this one. eyes will be glued on radar's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Found this to be an odd headline in the Mt. Holly AFD: LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... **WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTH OF I78 AND ADVISORY ALONG I78 NORTH** Clearly as per their county map, the warnings are only for counties well south of 78 (Mercer-Monmouth and south of there) and per the snowfall map, I-78 looks to be coincident with the 4" snowfall line, well below the 6" needed for warnings; plus, nowhere else in the AFD discusses snow that heavy near 78. Almost makes me wonder if they were going to include Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex (and the Lehigh Valley) in their warnings and then decided not to, at the last minute, but forgot to delete that text. I know sometimes the NWS guys post here - just wondering if anyone can elaborate on this. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Based off of nam initialization the pv is flatter and not nearly as much of a south pressing look as of this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Still think that PHL is on the NCAA tournament bubble with this storm. For those not into basketball (very close call). Need to do well in the 12z conference tournament. Won the SREF round in a close game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For anyone that would like to believe the 24hr 11z ruc, we are very much in the game. 5H heights aren't quite as suppressive as the nam or gfs show. Has 3-4 inches of snow overspreading sepa by 6 am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think the current WWA for northern Bucks, Montco and the Lehigh Valley for 3 to 6 inches of snow for this event is solid. Even with all of the south movement of the precip the past few days, I don't think this area ends up with less than 3 inches of snow. Plus, it seems the south trend stopped overnight so it's also possible it could end up a bit north of current modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM still has the main snow axis from central KY through central VA into the Delmarva, northern edge gets to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As I thought last evening a very slight north jog in precip did occur with the Wxsim now up to 0.55" for NW Chesco.....as before I expect this to increase a bit more with the 12z runs but it would appear I will not be correct with it getting back to the 1" qpf mark. Clearly as the RUC shows this will need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The gradient on this storm is incredible 20-30 miles could double or half your snow totals I wonder how many march snowstorms have happened where south of the m/d line does better than north. Im sure its happened before but with march climo I'd imagine its gotta be a pretty rare occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The gradient on this storm is incredible 20-30 miles could double or half your snow totals I wonder how many march snowstorms have happened where south of the m/d line does better than north. Im sure its happened before but with march climo I'd imagine its gotta be a pretty rare occurrence. March 1980 comes to mind. And there was a Miller B in the late 90's (I think) that hit Balt/DC pretty good but missed us. But you're right, suppression in March isn't something I'm usually too worried about -- I'm more concerned with the r/s line at this time of year. I'm thinking 3" is the over/under imby for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 March 1980 comes to mind. And there was a Miller B in the late 90's (I think) that hit Balt/DC pretty good but missed us. But you're right, suppression in March isn't something I'm usually too worried about -- I'm more concerned with the r/s line at this time of year. I'm thinking 3" is the over/under imby for this event. The models still support 6". Are you thinking that they are going to stop the northern progression and restart trending back south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The models still support 6". Are you thinking that they are going to stop the northern progression and restart trending back south? Yeah, there are still some models (including the latest Euro and it's ensembles) that are closer to 6" than 3" for central Montgomery County. I think 3 to 6 inches sounds good, with a slight chance of a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm sure 6" is possible for central Montco. I'm just keeping my expectations low for this one and hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12 GFS prcip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The models still support 6". ? Wrong, especially where you live and points north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12 GFS prcip totals.Looks good for 4-8 in Philly maybe some ratios will get the 6-8 forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 At this point just want 3" snow topper to cover all the dirty old snow up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks good for 4-8 in Philly maybe some ratios will get the 6-8 forecasted Nope. About half of that is a mix at PHL. 850s above freezing until at least 03Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM... darkest blue is 0.20-0.30, darkest green is 0.30-0.40, middle green 0.40-0.60, yellow-green 0.60-0.80. Congrats DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM... darkest blue is 0.20-0.30, darkest green is 0.30-0.40, middle green 0.40-0.60, yellow-green 0.60-0.80. Congrats DC. and .80" is not in the same ballpark of qpf we were talking for up here 48 hours ago. It failed in two ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 and .80" is not in the same ballpark of qpf we were talking for up here 48 hours ago. It failed in two ways Well keep in mind this is snow QPF only, per the RGEM algorithms. Not total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 They took the 15-20 mm area away from SEPA looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I am in the dumps after todays 12z' runs. Didn't expect another bump south after 6z....This storm might bust big time here in Philly, especially if the first part doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Most important part of the storm is how fast we change over this evening...because we could see like .4-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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