Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Damnit Ray! LOL....Yeah the 3rd now looks bad, I told myself if 00z went too far west on the data I'd give in, it has : / Still could get some front end snow we'll see too far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 6z GFS shows a scenario that might unfold, front end thump; 00z Euro ensemble hinted at this as welll FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 6z GFS shows a scenario that might unfold, front end thump; 00z Euro ensemble hinted at this as welll FWIW thump.gif this is a very likely scenario and more realistic than an all snow bomb. Gotta side with climo on this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yikes, just saw the pna will now be negative for this one. Cutter or inland track likely coming on future model runs if the teleconnection holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Could also produce ice with CAD. Still many runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yikes, just saw the pna will now be negative for this one. Cutter or inland track likely coming on future model runs if the teleconnection holds. IMO it isn't the PNA that is keeping this inland, its the confluence. Runs a few days ago had a really nice 50/50, but now the models dump a lot of that energy into the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 IMO it isn't the PNA that is keeping this inland, its the confluence. Runs a few days ago had a really nice 50/50, but now the models dump a lot of that energy into the west.its also the fact that there is a full phase on the euro which causes it to cut. However the ens mean paints a more snowy picture fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z GFS running, colder, 32 surface hanging around PHL and tad N/W with 0 line further north. Long duration of stuff falling. 120hr-159 so far Poconos ski areas should do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 As depicted on GFS looks like one of the 1994 ice storms. Don't get too many ice storms in march however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z GFS makes a lot more sense given the set up. We get a good amount of WAA precip ( not all snow but not important now) and the main low is pushed father south by the PV. If this storm trends colder, someone is going to get crushed around here, *if* the key word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 As depicted on GFS looks like one of the 1994 ice storms. Don't get too many ice storms in march however true, but keep in mind it is March 2nd, and a pretty good cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 As depicted on GFS looks like one of the 1994 ice storms. Don't get too many ice storms in march however Yeah, would definitely have to be below 28 degrees for much daytime accretion. JB has mentioned a daytime icestorm in Atlantic City in April - I think back around '72. That must have been something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Per GFS and now Gem, whoever stays all snow does real well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Interesting long-duration storm showing up on the models, you rarely see it play out like this, but that would be very cool to see. Could you imagine 20" in a 2 day span of light to moderate snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Interesting long-duration storm showing up on the models, you rarely see it play out like this, but that would be very cool to see. Could you imagine 20" in a 2 day span of light to moderate snow lol i've experinced this on ski trips in VT, Rockies and Canada but yeah rare locally. It would be cool but a pain for traveling around this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This is too far out still and will likely change countless times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This is too far out still and will likely change countless times. No way! It's lock and loaded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Canadian is a huge hit for Philly and the burbs, 10+" for our region...lets see if EURO joins the fray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 come on euro.... GFS for ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Interesting long-duration storm showing up on the models, you rarely see it play out like this, but that would be very cool to see. Could you imagine 20" in a 2 day span of light to moderate snow lol The GFS (as depicted) is vitually no snow from LV south for the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GFS gives DYL .5"+ of ZR... 1.8" total QPF. Perhaps 4"-6" of a paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Canadian has a MECS Day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 1.8" total QPF. Perhaps 4"-6" of a paste job. huh?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 interesting map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 EURO is a very nice front end thump thus far at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 interesting map Remember thats including the MECS/HECS it has at 200+ hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 6-10" for the city and more for the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 weenies will happy with euro 12z run, big shift from 0 run into the area. still many runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Euro and GGEM are quite similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Actually its around a foot for the city, and stormvista is usually conservative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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