Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I still believe the models are too wet. I see Philly around 6" tops. That dry air to the North of the precip shield is going to work it's magic in eroding away chunks of moisture and keeping the gradient uber tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Late week system on navgem: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Here's the Canadian. Hope this doesn't get deleted like the RUC I posted, how does arguing stay but model pics get deleted? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As noted...way north from earlier furthest south model... Will euro follow wetter north 0z trend?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 ECM not north or south holds 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Will Mt. Holly drop the WSW in areas north of Philly? Seems like 4-6" might be the best estimate at this point north of the Mason-Dixon. Storm had great potential just 36 hours ago. Shame, but I guess you can't win 'em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thought the euro doesn't start till 1:30? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 ECM not north or south holds 12z Funny..I'm reading that they bumped qpf north quite a bit!!!??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Come on guys, everybody is getting snow. It's going to look better once the 6-10 falls. It's a lot taller than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Will Mt. Holly drop the WSW in areas north of Philly? Seems like 4-6" might be the best estimate at this point north of the Mason-Dixon. Storm had great potential just 36 hours ago. Shame, but I guess you can't win 'em all. No, 4-6 is warning criteria. GFS GGEM RGEM Ukie and Euro all show 5 - 10 from southern Middlesex on south. The 10 15" amounts 36 hours ago we're never going to verify anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Here's the criteria. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterMaps/24%20hour%20snow%20warning%20criteria.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Here's the criteria. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterMaps/24%20hour%20snow%20warning%20criteria.gifThat's 24hrs, try 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Here's the Canadian. Hope this doesn't get deleted like the RUC I posted, how does arguing stay but model pics get deleted? Sent from my iPhone My guess is somebody hit a report button, which is a low move. Heres the RUC again: https://scontent-b-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/t1/s720x720/1380143_656101091114023_1679821869_n.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not sure if low placement bumped north, but overall qpf came north a hair. 12z euro had 3-4" for ABE, now at 00z up to 6-7" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not sure if low placement bumped north, but overall qpf came north a hair. 12z euro had 3-4" for ABE, now at 00z up to 6-7" Sent from my iPhone Lol....seems a 100% increase is much more than a "hair"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Lol....seems a 100% increase is much more than a "hair"! Lol!!! Tapatalks not allowing me to post images Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Three hour increments in inches, ECMWF snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That's 24hrs, try 12hrs. Criteria is average of that amount. 4-6 is an average of 5, not 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Regarding Euro QPF, ABE is very close to the same. It actually went down along the gradient in central PA and increased along the southern New England coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So if I am reading this correctly the 0z runs at least stopped the bleeding for Phila and TTN. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So if I am reading this correctly the 0z runs at least stopped the bleeding for Phila and TTN. Correct? That's what I gather if not improved a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That's what I gather if not improved a bit... I gathered the same thing, as well as with the 6Z NAM and 6Z RGEM. Not sure about the 6Z GFS. After 2 days of painful south trending it is a relief to see things stabilize and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 6z NAM ticked north 20-30 miles, has a slightly better precip orientation (not as flat e to w) and is generally similar to 0Z EURO and 6z RGEM with precip fields and gradients. 6z GFS ticked a bit south and keeps the 0.5" line just above PHL. 6z NAM had the PV as a whole a bit north compared to 0z and the lobe pressing down on the area pinwheeled quicker, plus the vort is more consolidated than the GFS which allowed slightly higher heights ahead of it and more breathing room for the precip field north. Enough time for a subtle bump north to make more of the board happy, one can hope. PHL south appears to be in for a treat at the least, hoping ABE gets some more love on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Lehigh Valley now in a WWA; nudged snowfall amounts down a bit (was 4-6" yesterday, now 3-6"). Still a formidable event sure to cause headaches for AM commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think the first part this evening could surprise some...My feeling is if the "2nd part" stays south Philly gets like 2-5", if Philly gets into some moderate snow tomorrow, 4-8" is fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That arctic hp is really going to be dry on the north side of the precip shield leading many in the LHV to jump from bridges tomorrow. The north trend just never happened with this one. That dry air is going to cause quite the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Still a lot of wobbling around at this late stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That arctic hp is really going to be dry on the north side of the precip shield leading many in the LHV to jump from bridges tomorrow. The north trend just never happened with this one. That dry air is going to cause quite the gradient. Were at the range where the north trend begins...Philly could still do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Were at the range where the north trend begins...Philly could still do well.probably not this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 probably not this go sround Agreed it is probably a long shot, but models are never perfect, the 6z run before the lions-eagles game, all of the models had like .1-.2 total precip for Philly, we know what happened....In my lifetime, I'd say 75% of the storms, there is always 2 good ticks north before a storm. I'm not talking about giant shifts or anything, but I think the first batch could over perform, and if we get that 2nd in to our area, enough to clip it, we could see 4-8" totals....Honestly, a week ago if someone told you we'd get 4-8" you'd lock that up in a heart beat ralphy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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