monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 15z SREF mean is pretty significantly south of 9z, the .5 line just gets to NYC, it was well well north of there at 9z. It looks pretty similar to the rest of the guidance from the maps I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't think that is the issue. Going from 15 inches--8 inches to nothing in 24 hours is a kick in the nutz. Case in point is my backyard. I have made peace with this storm. It happens. After all the storms which have gone bonkers this year beyond expectations, you guys should be prepared for a kick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Based on the complaining in some parts of the forum, you'd think it had been a poor snow season or something... Yeah it's kind of lost that PHL has been the jackpot on a lot of storms this winter and ABE on the storm a few weeks back. Only justice that the snow wealth gets spread south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Going with the trend the last 3 or 4 model runs the other side of the coin is that it could go even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah it's kind of lost that PHL has been the jackpot on a lot of storms this winter and ABE on the storm a few weeks back. Only justice that the snow wealth gets spread south a bit. I was thinking of... well, a place to the north with its own little subforum, not this one per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Going with the trend the last 3 or 4 model runs the other side of the coin is that it could go even further south. Yeah if the trend continues much more my forecast will be in the trash tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I was thinking of... well, a place to the north with its own little subforum, not this one per se. yeah i was going to say i dont think this forum has really been bad with that stuff, unlike... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Based on the complaining in some parts of the forum, you'd think it had been a poor snow season or something... I was thinking the same thing, I know Im satisfied with how this winter has played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I was thinking of... well, a place to the north with its own little subforum, not this one per se. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Going with the trend the last 3 or 4 model runs the other side of the coin is that it could go even further south. The majority of the MA forum would need mental help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah if the trend continues much more my forecast will be in the trash tomorrow. Your decision to stay in Elko is looking pretty good at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For once glad to be on the southern end of the region. I think Wilmington/Newark Delaware is in a good spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Your decision to stay in Elko is looking pretty good at least I was debating it overnight as I noticed a rather inexpensive flight, but decided to wait until today's 12Z guidance. Glad I did, though this could make an unexpected shift still. Getting less and less likely to do that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Going with the trend the last 3 or 4 model runs the other side of the coin is that it could go even further south. At this rate it is tempting to assume that it will and be pleased if it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For once glad to be on the southern end of the region. I think Wilmington/Newark Delaware is in a good spot for this one. Yes you are, as am I, barely across the Mason Dixon line, but for this latitude I think we've spent most of our south trending cushion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes you are, as am I, barely across the Mason Dixon line, but for this latitude I think we've spent most of our south trending cushion. Agreed, the trend has me a bit concerned as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For once glad to be on the southern end of the region. I think Wilmington/Newark Delaware is in a good spot for this one. Seems like it, though today's runs made me kind of nervous. Another shift south and we might be out of the significant snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF mean snowfall. Would not be my first tool for picking out the hvy snow band because it's likely in a different spot on each member. This at least gives us indication this storm isn't going to miss us totally south with no snow. NYC 4.4 ABE 4.8PHL 5.7 GED 6.0ACY 6.1ILG 6.2 DOV 6.7BWI 6.7GED 6.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks good for my area. :3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Agreed, the trend has me a bit concerned as well. And most of that "spending" is based on the idea we had of a 6" to 12" event. Mitchell Gaines' nightmare of an area that misses out on the first wave due to temps, and is too far north to get much from the 2nd wave, would be the worst case scenario at this point. I'm preparing myself for the possibility that we wind up with less than 6" if the trends continue. The next level after that is something to shovel. If we get more, great, if not then as everyone has been saying it has been an amazing winter. I don't think this is the last hurrah, either. And I'm still watching this one of course... For you and everyone south of Philly including South Jersey, yes, you're due to be in the jackpot zone! I hope you get 12" or more! I still think the jackpot axis just north of the Mason Dixon line would be good for all, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM appears to continue the south trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM appears to continue the south trend... for some reason i cant seem to get past 42 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow philly is dry slotted. Round 2 even further south! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If this trends any more south it may completely miss DC as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow philly is dry slotted. Round 2 even further south! Sent from my iPad Yup, round one is a mix and then round two PHL just gets clipped. Good thing it's the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm surprised nws hasn't dropped Abe to wwa yet Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm surprised nws hasn't dropped Abe to wwa yet Sent from my iPad Because they will just keep the watch. WWA don't come out until 24hrs before event just like warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You can see the cold air from the polar vortex pouring into the country. This is probably why the models are going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Look at the 18z NAM, look at 250mb jet...I can't believe for a second that more precip shouldn't be N of where it is. NAM does this a lot close to storms. I'm not saying the S trend isn't winning out, but unless we see the GFS go entirely south at 18z, the NAM is likely way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 New WSW for Abe still 4-8" Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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