hazwoper Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Haz the 6z and 12z GFS have the most snow for Philly, they are strengthening the shortwave. With a storm like this, there will be a tight gradient however...but on overrunning types you always have a strong band of precip on the northern edge. 6-12" for the city looks like a fair call. leaning towards 8-12" I don't disagree about the band, but the models were all along far to broad with the extent of that band (see yesterday's run for instance as they all had nearly all of PA in a massive 12-18" area). As we get closer to the event my belief is this shrinking of the heavy band will continue and rates will be reduced. But, we shall see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Haz the 6z and 12z GFS have the most snow for Philly, they are strengthening the shortwave. With a storm like this, there will be a tight gradient however...but on overrunning types you always have a strong band of precip on the northern edge. 6-12" for the city looks like a fair call. leaning towards 8-12" as I alluded to earlier this sort of reminds me of 12/8/13 in that models are signaling a death band setting up nearby. Gonna have to watch the hires models as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't disagree about the band, but the models were all along far to broad with the extent of that band (see yesterday's run for instance as they all had nearly all of PA in a massive 12-18" area). As we get closer to the event my belief is this shrinking of the heavy band will continue and rates will be reduced. But, we shall see.... I agree, I think C/N PA and northern burbs are in danger, but I personally feel Philly could make it up with snow through the night Sunday with the first band as that has trended colder. I also feel the heavy stuff will clip Philly Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Am I the only one who thinks it is funny we were begging the PV to hold firm so it was cold enough for snow early in the week, and now New Yorkers are upset because it is too strong pushing the precip south? I'd say those who like snow and live in the northern suburbs of Philly (and north of that) are none-too-happy to see how far south the QPF max has gone on most of the modeling since yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thank god the storm isn't going to be just one big ice storm here like it was expected to be earlier in the week. I'm a bit scared about the snow here though because in some model runs, the snow is south of my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd say those who like snow and live in the northern suburbs of Philly (and north of that) are none-too-happy to see how far south the QPF max has gone on most of the modeling since yesterday morning. I'd say those who like snow and live in coastal South Jersey are absolutely thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd say those who like snow and live in the northern suburbs of Philly (and north of that) are none-too-happy to see how far south the QPF max has gone on most of the modeling since yesterday morning. I'd say you're right, John. Add to that, this winter has been so similar to 2010 (for me anyway) in that except for one decent storm (2/13), most every storm has hit basically the same regions over and over again. If the NWS would have put out a single contour map for the winter, they could have used it for multiple storms and just adjusted the numbers as needed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd say those who like snow and live in coastal South Jersey are absolutely thrilled. Sure...I'm just stating that it shouldn't seem "funny" that those snow-lovers who looked to be getting good snow amounts the previous few days are somewhat displeased that the snow amounts have been reduced by quite a bit in recent modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This storm still has some surprises up it's sleeve IMO. I'm leery about the strength of the cold as modelled as we are getting late in the season. The warm push from the south is fairly strong and will likely provide a good amount of resistance. There is still time for the heaviest snow area to shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I agree, I think C/N PA and northern burbs are in danger, but I personally feel Philly could make it up with snow through the night Sunday with the first band as that has trended colder. I also feel the heavy stuff will clip Philly Monday. no one knows what is going to happen for sure obviously, but the area that has probably had the most model consensus for a solid snow event is PHL region. Now, given the trends I would probably expect DC/Balt to do as well if not better, but my point is there really havent been too many "bad" runs for PHL region for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd say those who like snow and live in coastal South Jersey are absolutely thrilled. I'd say but of course. Ideally a shift north of about 25-50 miles of the center of the precip. axis would make a lot of people happy between DC and NYC. Edit: Maybe not make DC happy, but they could still get snow while up north does also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Usually on the front edge of tight gradients you can get mesoscale bands that help increase rates on the northern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd say those who like snow and live in coastal South Jersey are absolutely thrilled. Absolutely. It's comforting, albeit rare, to be sitting in such a good position at this point in the game. Much rather be on the northern side of the max forecasted snow then on the southern side (typical) wondering how much is going to be lost to sleet and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I could be wrong, but i'd expect another bump or 2 northward the next few runs. Just because it's #1 March. #2 No strong high in the north to suppress and cutoff precip rates from N and C NJ. #3 Models typically showing a deeper system 24 to 36 hours before the event. #4 Strong high almost in bermuda high location...to prevent a more suppressed solution. so...the NYC crowd shouldn't be crying....just yet. The storm has the ingredients for a nice QPF bump the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well I've been thinking a north trend will start anytime now for about a week and I'm still waiting for it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any ski areas in Delaware I can hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Where models have this I think being in north Delaware is in good spot whatever happens at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I could be wrong, but i'd expect another bump or 2 northward the next few runs. Just because it's #1 March. #2 No strong high in the north to suppress and cutoff precip rates from N and C NJ. #3 Models typically showing a deeper system 24 to 36 hours before the event. #4 Strong high almost in bermuda high location...to prevent a more suppressed solution. so...the NYC crowd shouldn't be crying....just yet. The storm has the ingredients for a nice QPF bump the next few runs. I think that the initial overrunning wave ends up better than depicted, but the 2nd wave ends up more south than is currently shown because the stronger first wave may further suppress the thermal gradient as a whole and I'm still not sure that vort lobe isn't being underestimated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Absolutely. It's comforting, albeit rare, to be sitting in such a good position at this point in the game. Much rather be on the northern side of the max forecasted snow then on the southern side (typical) wondering how much is going to be lost to sleet and rain. I agree with this, although the continual southward trend is a little disconcerting. I'm hoping for a last minute adjustment north which is something you'd normally expect, but first I'd like to see the southern trend be done. Hopefully the polar vortex part of the equation is well handled now, if that is attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 but the 2nd wave ends up more south than is currently shown If true, i'd be surprised...of that much suppression without a strong push from the north. A couple millibars stronger with the bermuda high = more of a push north. But kinda dicey either way, with so many mini-factors / phases in play here. Quite a squeeze-play. Not the typical winter storm by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For Jersey shore folks Mt Holly map 8-10* now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 JMA total moisture, most of it looks good for snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 JMA backed off last run by 1" qpf and more down to earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Did anything not sink south this run? Besides the yet to be revealed EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ray... What's your thinking at this point for Trenton and Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 12z GFS and NAM included Trended a bit colder and a bit drier but still a solid 9" to 12" of snow with 1.00" of qpf Lite mix late afternoon tomorrow Heaviest snow in wee hours of Monday thru late PM should be all over by 7pm If we receive more then 10" we would move into 2nd place here in Chester County for snowiest season replacing the 86.6" of snow that fell back in 2009/10. The only season with more snow....which conceivably could be in reach is 1899/1900 when 95" of snow fell here in Chester County PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ray... What's your thinking at this point for Trenton and Philly? My thinking is that I'm glad I don't forecast for Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd say those who like snow and live in coastal South Jersey are absolutely thrilled. As you see I am in coastal South Jersey, been WAITING for real snow, and I am ready!!! The snow lovers "up north" have certainly had plenty to enjoy, we deserve a chance. Right now it is just that: a chance. The trend has been good so far but we all know how quickly that can change. Let ya know in 48 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 My thinking is that I'm glad I don't forecast for Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Although not saying it, sounds like from Matts PBP it went S...not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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