wasnow215 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Seems like it's been pretty consistent now on most models last few cycles. Even the beaches a decent amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't think the polar Vortex has a resolve at all, which is "personification", assigning a human quality to a non-human object. What it does have is cyclical power, strongest in the Winter. At that time, it might as well be a Category 2 hurricane, spinning around the North Pole , until, a piece drops away and hurls itself at North America for a short while. But it causes havoc, and the coldest temps, because you aren't getting just arctic air, but the coldest of the arctic, the Polar Vortex. It will retreat back, it is a thing ruled by physics, the underpinning of all meteorology. Hey now wait a minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Who has the GGEM qpf for philly? Maps i see in mid atlantic look like they get 1.00" qpf near philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hey now wait a minute... my-polar-vortex-2014b.jpg That deserves some Internets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hey now wait a minute... my-polar-vortex-2014b.jpg Look at that face who couldn't love the vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GEFS .75-1.0" qpf in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 JMA ground zeros philly 1.25-1.50" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 JMA ground zeros philly 1.25-1.50" qpf This is a huge Euro run coming. Need it to maintain it's general 12Z look with no major shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is a huge Euro run coming. Need it to maintain it's general 12Z look with no major shifts. NAM and GFS OP were a real buzzkill to start the 0z runs, other guidance has improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ECM south a bit. Still .75" qpf for philly , good for SJ and DE and bad for northern crowd GFS and ECM now with 5-6" snow northern bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ECM south a bit. Still .75" qpf for philly , good for SJ and DE and bad for northern crowd GFS and ECM now with 5-6" snow northern bucks Half a foot of snow nothing to sneeze at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Half a foot of snow nothing to sneeze at 12z tomorrow more changes think we get a bump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 JMA bumps QPF to 1.50-2.00" in SEPA lol my experience is JMA can be 2X too heavy, but no complaints with .75-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 03 SREFs have a vast area of .5+ from south of cape may upto northern Connecticut. Wetter than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I believe as we get closer we'll start to see the storm out west trend stronger and stronger. The cold looks like it gets here on time (though the NAM is still having issues), but the 2nd part is the whole key. I like that the EURO trended wetter overall. SNJ does really well on EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Right on que, the NAM is colder, and looks better for part II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Meh, NAM tried, but it couldn't find enough separation from the cold front and the shortwave...it'll look better (towards GFS/EURO) by 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Winter Storm Watch Statement as of 4:02 AM EST on March 01, 2014 ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. * Locations... southeastern Pennsylvania including Philadelphia through central and coastal northern New Jersey. * Hazard types... mostly snow and sleet. * Accumulations... snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches... along with around a trace of ice. * Timing... any rain that occurs Sunday afternoon should change to sleet... or freezing rain for a short time before changing to all snow late Sunday night. Snow will end Monday afternoon. * Winds... north 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Temperatures... falling through 20s late at night and to near 20 by noon Monday. * Impacts... while there is still uncertainty regarding the amounts of snow... sleet and freezing rain that will occur Sunday night... there is little doubt that Monday morning will be snowy and cold. This is projecting to be a high impact winter storm for Monday morning. * Following the storm... near record cold is possible Monday night as temperatures drop to between zero and 10 above. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Anyone have RGEM out to 54 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Anyone have RGEM out to 54 hours? http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS has a strong vort out west, looks really good thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS has a strong vort out west, looks really good thus far do you sleep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 do you sleep? Sometimes, how about you?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 250mb jet was also much more favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The best part about the runs tonight is they brought back the higher precip totals in general. 12z runs should be fun, back to sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sometimes, how about you?! Not during storm mode :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 one headache of a storm forecasting all the shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 06 gfs keeps southern system a little more consolidated as it reaches the east coast. Good trend if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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