White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Likely made that call before 18z GFS, well see what happens I expect nothing less from Glenn...The best OCM in this market doesn't waffle like weenies between model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I expect nothing less from Glenn...The best OCM in this market doesn't waffle like weenies between model runs. I didn't mean it like that, just latest data did move slightly south, we'll see. Earl Barkers snow maps look pretty good for 18z NAM in the city and NW... I am still on the 6-10" for our area with pops to 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 the models are going to vacillate as they hone in on a solution, it is to be expected. This morning, prior to the 12z GFS people were discussing a north trend. Seems like a long time ago, already. While I do agree that suppression may be an issue, some of the changes from run to run are just noise I think PHL still in a pretty good spot here for a moderate storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z gefs were north, more than half of the members north of operational, .75" upto sandy hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I wonder which model is influencing CNN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I wonder which model is influencing CNN... Getting your weather from CNN is almost as bad as the 40+ day Accuweather "forecasts". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I wonder which model is influencing CNN... Looks like the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFs just went way south, huge hit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 00z NAM thus far the PV is slightly slower but more intense on the southern side, its a tad colder, also the storm out west looks stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The EPAWA seems to think that based of some of the water vapor data they have supports a strengthening of the southern jet, hence weakening of the PV although its a hard call right now. I feel like this storm is in its "awkward middle school years." I like the more Northern Solution, its hard to image so much cold blockage so late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The EPAWA seems to think that based of some of the water vapor data they have supports a strengthening of the southern jet, hence weakening of the PV although its a hard call right now. I feel like this storm is in its "awkward middle school years." I like the more Northern Solution, its hard to image so much cold blockage so late in the season. In almost every winter storm threat some blog comes out and goes crazy on how the storm out in the ocean is 2mb stronger than the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 In almost every winter storm threat some blog comes out and goes crazy on how the storm out in the ocean is 2mb stronger than the models are showing. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The EPAWA seems to think that based of some of the water vapor data they have supports a strengthening of the southern jet, hence weakening of the PV although its a hard call right now. I feel like this storm is in its "awkward middle school years." I like the more Northern Solution, its hard to image so much cold blockage so late in the season. Perhaps you should look at the radar from Feb. 6th, 2010, while I watched Philly get dumped with 15+ inches . That storm stalled like it hit a brick wall 35 miles from Staten Island. Don't for a second doubt the strength of the Polar Vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any idea on how Philly does on the NAM? Looks pretty good. Maybe 4-7" after some sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know you said that earlier @mookiemike, but you have to wonder when the resolve of the PV will finally wear down. Some might call this wishcasting: but I'm hoping the snow weenies get a win on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like 4-8" for the city on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any idea on how Philly does on the NAM? Looks pretty good. Maybe 4-7" after some sleet? Its just changing to snow at 12Z Monday @PHL. I'd say approximately 5" on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like 4-8" for the city on the NAM? Yep... http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kphl.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yep... http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kphl.txt That looks overdone. The sounding clearly indicates non-snow at 9Z Monday, yet it ascribes almost all the precip from 9Z-12Z as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know you said that earlier @mookiemike, but you have to wonder when the resolve of the PV will finally wear down. Some might call this wishcasting: but I'm hoping the snow weenies get a win on this storm. I don't think the polar Vortex has a resolve at all, which is "personification", assigning a human quality to a non-human object. What it does have is cyclical power, strongest in the Winter. At that time, it might as well be a Category 2 hurricane, spinning around the North Pole , until, a piece drops away and hurls itself at North America for a short while. But it causes havoc, and the coldest temps, because you aren't getting just arctic air, but the coldest of the arctic, the Polar Vortex. It will retreat back, it is a thing ruled by physics, the underpinning of all meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes I will concede that resolve is in fact a word generally used to describe humanistic traits, however I was of course using it the describe the physical interaction between the north and south streams. I am hence not willing to accept that a northern solution being ruled out at this time, especially when many of the vendor forecasts seem to favor it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 0Z GFS is slightly north compared to 18Z but still much further south than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't think the polar Vortex has a resolve at all, which is "personification", assigning a human quality to a non-human object. What it does have is cyclical power, strongest in the Winter. At that time, it might as well be a Category 2 hurricane, spinning around the North Pole , until, a piece drops away and hurls itself at North America for a short while. But it causes havoc, and the coldest temps, because you aren't getting just arctic air, but the coldest of the arctic, the Polar Vortex. It will retreat back, it is a thing ruled by physics, the underpinning of all meteorology. Agreed but the timing is critical. We need that PV to retreat slowly as that Southern energy is pulling thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Local Philly news going wild about the storm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Most going with a solid 6"-10", some higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This one is not done yet. I would not be surprised to a 25-50 mile shift north, putting PHL burbs back into the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 UKMET is a big hit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 UKMET is a lone bastion of hope for the big storm crowd on the 0z runs with .75-1.00" qpf in SEPA. last up ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAVGEM is usually about 100-150 miles too far suppressed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Southern New Jersey Jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.