DiehardFF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I am shocked that the EURO shows a 10 degree plus difference in 6 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Alright... I think my early call for TTN is 5-10". Nothing to fly home about. Bust potential rather large of course given some guidance has less and other guidance is near the top end of that. I hate making a call 3 days out. Ray are we seeing things firm up as the storm is in CONUS and better data/initialization is now tuning thing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Alright... I think my early call for TTN is 5-10". Nothing to fly home about. Bust potential rather large of course given some guidance has less and other guidance is near the top end of that. I hate making a call 3 days out. That means TTN will jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Seems to give some credence to the GFS. It is run off of GFS data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ray are we seeing things firm up as the storm is in CONUS and better data/initialization is now tuning thing up? Players aren't all "on the field" until later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Alright... I think my early call for TTN is 5-10". Nothing to fly home about. Bust potential rather large of course given some guidance has less and other guidance is near the top end of that. I hate making a call 3 days out. thats a great call for TTN per my rookie eyes curious to see gfs 0z now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Players aren't all "on the field" until later tomorrow. oh really. im following via iphone while playing outside at 3000ft. I thought otherwise..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Alright... I think my early call for TTN is 5-10". Nothing to fly home about. Bust potential rather large of course given some guidance has less and other guidance is near the top end of that. I hate making a call 3 days out. Hopefully, you didn't jinx yourself Ray wouldn't that be a bummer if this turned out better than expected. Even so a quality, reasoned prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You would take the GGEM over the GFS run? I only ask, because in February 2010, I watched a storm dumping 15" over PHL, with a Polar Vortex so strong, that storm froze in it's tracks and didn't get within 35 miles of Staten Island, the southernmost point of NYC. Living on the UES, it ws 50 miles away, then went due east like a cartoon, and OTS. You're the Pro, not me, but I wouldn't discount the volatility here that would permit the PV to do it's thing. Just my $.02 On another note, I love reading your forecasts at Mount Holly. That was a not a forecast just adding to a question which asked and discussed the GGEM model output. Big difference between that and going with the GGEM for a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That was a not a forecast just adding to a question which asked and discussed the GGEM model output. Big difference between that and going with the GGEM for a forecast. Apparently mentioning guidance that isn't favorable is sacriledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Alright... I think my early call for TTN is 5-10". Nothing to fly home about. Bust potential rather large of course given some guidance has less and other guidance is near the top end of that. I hate making a call 3 days out. Phew! That means we'll get like 15 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 JMA looks REALLY good at 72 hours, cold has come through just about and it is about to DUMP, really stronger shortwave coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Above from Don S in NYC forum..no need for panic down this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Philly always seems to get into the bullseye this year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 1st snowfall map out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Great map. Mt. Holly has been on point this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 the next dilemma : too far offshore and just flurries. surprised the models have been backing off from the deeper storm trends from earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't even know if that 18z gfs can be considered a trend. It was a MASSIVE shift south. I expect it to jog back north a bit before trending one way or the other. There is still a lot of time to go and for the models to do whatever they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't even know if that 18z gfs can be considered a trend. It was a MASSIVE shift south. I expect it to jog back north a bit before trending one way or the other. There is still a lot of time to go and for the models to do whatever they do. Well, its a lot closer to the GGEM now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 the next dilemma : too far offshore and just flurries. surprised the models have been backing off from the deeper storm trends from earlier in the week. The "polar vortex" is showing its muscle. Or at least, the models think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Geez TTN went from maybe 8-12 to like 3-5 all in 24 hours. It is what it is I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well, its a lot closer to the GGEM now... That hasn't worked out well for this season...might want to start ignoring the gfs all together! It seems like the models always waffle back and forth for the most part, then throw out some massive adjustment only to trend back. That is just my observation, nothing scientific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That hasn't worked out well for this season...might want to start ignoring the gfs all together! It seems like the models always waffle back and forth for the most part, then throw out some massive adjustment only to trend back. That is just my observation, nothing scientific. I'm not ruling anything out. After all, I went with a nice wide 5" range for a reason (That reason being, I'm an idiot cuz I'm not sure what will happen exactly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Great map. Mt. Holly has been on point this winter. they have busted a few times up in my area this year. Too much snow or not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Geez TTN went from maybe 8-12 to like 3-5 all in 24 hours. It is what it is I guess. I went from 15 inches to 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not ruling anything out. After all, I went with a nice wide 5" range for a reason (That reason being, I'm an idiot cuz I'm not sure what will happen exactly)[/quote/] Looks like wpvi got you beat Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I went from 15 inches to 1 inch Shades of 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sounds like Glenn isn't buying the south trend. His new foreacast is 6-12 lvh and 6-10 phl Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sounds like Glenn isn't buying the south trend. His new foreacast is 6-12 lvh and 6-10 phl Sent from my iPhone Likely made that call before 18z GFS, well see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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