JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 FROM HM: Man, not only is the PV more assertive this run, shunting all mid-level features south; but, it also strengthens the upper-level jet at 200mb to almost 200kt max over northern New England! That will cause some serious uplift over the Mid Atlantic. Suddenly, this is becoming a more consolidated / shorter-duration heavier system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM took a step towards GFS, its still warmer with the front, but a bit colder, and still suppressed with 2nd part. UKMET only goes to 72 hours, but it looks GFS-like, maybe even wetter. Would need to see next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 By 72 hours the 850mb 0 line is south of the city, and 500mb looks amplified, would be a pretty big hit for most of us (UKMET) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z NAM Bufkit: Warm layer from 720 mb-900 mb that gradually gets eaten away by Monday morning. However almost all of the precipitation is freezing rain (.47) and sleet (.56). PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 By 72 hours the 850mb 0 line is south of the city, and 500mb looks amplified, would be a pretty big hit for most of us (UKMET) Hard to tell without seeing intermediate hours. Slower to bring in cold air than gfs so more ice at start.Second half should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM very suppressed. QPF max looks like its south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM looks like maybe 2-4 for PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Be shocked if the GGEM was right. 12z GFS didnt fold. Doubt the EURO will change. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah GEM has been very different from other globals in all of its runs. Don't know if it's out to lunch or what. If the EC looks anything like it did at 0Z, I'd be willing to go with a blend of that and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Be shocked if the GGEM was right. 12z GFS didnt fold. Doubt the EURO will change. We shall see It might not have folded, but it did shift south, compared to the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM looks like maybe 2-4 for PHL. total qpf was around .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 total qpf was around .5 Yeah but some of that was mix/rain, based on the p-type page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah but some of that was mix/rain, based on the p-type page. yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ray, I guess your right. However, its been switching 25-50 miles the past 4 runs, which is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z euro, 54hr, 32 surface in poconos, 0 line at phl, precip moving into abe, lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 60 hr, precip covers area, 32 surface upper bucks heading west, 0 line ttn heading west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 total qpf was around .5 You would take the GGEM over the GFS run? I only ask, because in February 2010, I watched a storm dumping 15" over PHL, with a Polar Vortex so strong, that storm froze in it's tracks and didn't get within 35 miles of Staten Island, the southernmost point of NYC. Living on the UES, it ws 50 miles away, then went due east like a cartoon, and OTS. You're the Pro, not me, but I wouldn't discount the volatility here that would permit the PV to do it's thing. Just my $.02 On another note, I love reading your forecasts at Mount Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 66hr 32 and 0 line around phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 72 hr everyone snow, 0 and 32 line at cape may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 12z data now back to all snow for NW Chesco with between 12" to 15" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 78 hr, snow, heaveir snow central bucks/mont south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 12z data now back to all snow for NW Chesco with between 12" to 15" of snow Seems to give some credence to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 84 hr lt. precip central bucks/mont to coast, moving out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Seems to give some credence to the GFS. WxSim, as I recall, is based primarily on the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Main theme today is more vortex flex and cold suppression and less qpf and a more ordinary 6-10" SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 per SV Snow total map 10:1, not seeing the large 8"+ numbers so less snow on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro shifted south as with just about all other guidance. (Save the NAM). 0Z run QPF max stretched across southern tier of PA into central NJ. 12Z run is more like Maryland/Delaware/southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 per SV Snow total map 10:1, not seeing the large 8"+ numbers so less snow on this run Bullseye 3-5 days before storm not so good. I can't believe we are getting cold suppressed in March . Plenty of time to go. Real good run for DC'ers that have seen less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Alright... I think my early call for TTN is 5-10". Nothing to fly home about. Bust potential rather large of course given some guidance has less and other guidance is near the top end of that. I hate making a call 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Still gets .9" to KDYL. I am sure atleast 7" of snow , perhaps more with 12:1 + ratios near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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