chubbs Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM has a prounounced warm layer above 850 mb. Profiles show sleet changing to snow for round 2 in SE PA and yes we can get sleet/ice storms in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 10M's and 850's are both well below freezing. should be good enough, to drag it down with heavier QPF. Should look at 800 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A lot of ice on this NAM run for PHL area. Quite a bit of that could be freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 10M's and 850's are both well below freezing. should be good enough, to drag it down with heavier QPF. technically, can't "drag down" cold air if there's warmer air above it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NAM is a bit outside its range, I'm taking this run with a gigantic grain of salt. Its actually the only salt I can find these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 slightly colder is all that's needed for an all snow event. give it a run or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 10M's and 850's are both well below freezing. should be good enough, to drag it down with heavier QPF. A lot of ice on this NAM run for PHL area. Quite a bit of that could be freezing rain. Have a hunch that the GFS is going to come in warm yet again in the thermal layers between 700mb and 925 mb. Done so that past few consecutive runs but some are ignoring this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 For this storm, I am torn between my desire to simply fall back on longer term Philadelphia climatology for a March storm (i.e. PHL will see plenty of snow in the air, some of it impressive, but, in the end, accumulations will be disappointing) or to simply look back on the events of this winter and be certain that somehow, some way, Mother Nature will find a way to jackpot somebody in the immediate PHL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 For this storm, I am torn between my desire to simply fall back on longer term Philadelphia climatology for a March storm (i.e. PHL will see plenty of snow in the air, some of it impressive, but, in the end, accumulations will be disappointing) or to simply look back on the events of this winter and be certain that somehow, some way, Mother Nature will find a way to jackpot somebody in the immediate PHL area. Ground is plenty cold (with a deep frost line) and surface temps in the 20's during the height of the storm will negate the typical March effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm making eggs and onions, so I don't have to sit here hitting the model refresh every minute. anybody want some..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 How about bacon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 how could I forget. thanks for reminding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS coming in colder and farther South than 6Z....snowier solution for the area. Jackpot zone back to the LHV and Eastern PA it appears at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS coming in colder and farther South than 6Z....snowier solution for the area. Jackpot zone back to the LHV and Eastern PA it appears at first glance. Coming in a lot colder. The 540 line is touching DC at hour 72 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 DCA-PHL crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where do I sign up for the 12z gfs as depicted? Phil smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 534 line approaching us at hour 75. Very cold run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Philly 10-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 DCA-PHL crushed So you're saying the GFS isn't following the lead of the CRAS/NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Cold snowy run. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Congrats. It's your winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Congrats. It's your winter. Kiss of Death post.....congratulate us when 24 hours out, not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 thanks..is nyc left out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 thanks..is nyc left out? No. Philly gets more snow though on this run. SNE northward gets shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't expect it to be this good but I'm glad it didn't trend like the NAM. Bi-polar MA forum going nuts...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't expect it to be this good but I'm glad it didn't trend like the NAM. Bi-polar MA forum going nuts...lol. Yeah, they went from weenie suicide to weenie orgasm in 15 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That run was ridiculously cold, snowing in the mid teens. *If* that run is correct we could start talking good ratios, but just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Coldest gfs run yet after a fairly warm run. Hopefully things will settle down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If the 12z euro holds, its a lock for 8"+ IMO. NAM will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 very interesting run there. wherever the gradient decides to setup there are going to be some impressive totals for sure. this run taken verbatim you have heavy snow with crashing mid levels and surface temps that would support higher ratios and not too much wind to destroy the dendrites as they fall. impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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