RedSky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A tick drier than 12z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Got up around 4:15, lost power a couple minutes after. Of course I had to see how the Euro did, lol. So far so good it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Enough confidence for winter storm watches for this afternoon's package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looked to me like the 850's ticked colder this run. Also of note is that its faster... for most the storm is done by 18Z Monday on this run. QPF still pretty good, widespread ~1". Well, then. If the faster scenarios verify with the still rather high qpf, it looks like some fols are going to see some pretty heavy snow at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ratios get up to 12:1 perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Enough confidence for winter storm watches for this afternoon's package? We are still 60 hours out from any impact. Good to see the euro get on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM is still actin funny though. not liking how it brings everything in, in 2 broken pieces. Euro seems like a blend between GFS and NAM...so it's got some weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 06 gfs shifted north about 60 miles. Quite a bit of sleet and freezing rain south of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 hope there is no repeat ice storm for anyone in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 06 gfs shifted north about 60 miles. Quite a bit of sleet and freezing rain south of the turnpike. with all the snowcover, frozen great lakes, and models typically under-doing the level of cold a day or 2 before the event...my money's still on a colder trending event. The worry might eventually be too cold, and a storm out to sea. But since it's an early march storm, the odds go slightly against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM is still actin funny though. not liking how it brings everything in, in 2 broken pieces. Euro seems like a blend between GFS and NAM...so it's got some weight. WNEP must be going with the NAM then. Noreen was on this morning and mentioned up to 5 inches for the northern tier from wave one, and 10 inches farther south for wave two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 with all the snowcover, frozen great lakes, and models typically under-doing the level of cold a day or 2 before the event...my money's still on a colder trending event. The worry might eventually be too cold, and a storm out to sea. But since it's an early march storm, the odds go slightly against that. Model tendency is generally to be not aggressive enough with low level cold air or mid-level warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Model tendency is generally to be not aggressive enough I haven't seen the models being aggressive enough with the deepening of the Lows yet either...which seems to happen a day or 2 before as well. Still many unknowns. Everything needs to be perfect for an all-snow event. Best case : Colder and deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 6z data GFS/NAM blends shows about a 50/50 split between Sleet early and Snow late with 1.50" of qpf.....verbatim it paints 6" to 9" of snow and sleet. Arriving Sunday late evening and ending by Monday early evening. Temps in the 20's during precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM slightly colder at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 still looking good at 48. High off the shore position further north, similar to GFS. (it's trending..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 still looking good at 48. High off the shore position further north, similar to GFS. (it's trending..) Trended farther Nortth this run. Still has the warmth on Sunday then we finally get the push of the PV which is also positioned farther North this run. We'll see what happens after 72 hours which is critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Trended farther Nortth this run. Still has the warmth on Sunday then we finally get the push of the PV which is also positioned farther North this run. We'll see what happens after 72 hours which is critical. Its extremely warm, +4 at 800 mb all the way to TTN 12Z Monday. Not that we should trust the NAM this far out. Especially given it just went from way south to way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Its extremely warm, +4 at 800 mb all the way to TTN 12Z Monday. Not that we should trust the NAM this far out. Especially given it just went from way south to way north. The useless (as everyone calls it) CRAS supports this and is leading the way with the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I would think that the hi-res models tend to over phase especially when taken verbatim outside of its useful range. I believe they are probably displaying a little too much interaction with the s/w and the PV therefore portraying a much different solution than the GFS and EURO. I am not sure what their track records are with over running setups outside of 48 hrs but I would think especially in this type of setup they shouldn't be considered until the tomorrow night. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Probably ignore it, NAM is a weird run, it does something way different with the PV, however Philly still manages to get decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Its extremely warm, +4 at 800 mb all the way to TTN 12Z Monday. Not that we should trust the NAM this far out. Especially given it just went from way south to way north. It somehow ends up showing snow though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It somehow ends up showing snow though lol What shows that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM qpf total from NCEP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM has a lot of sleet. Warm layer above 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It somehow ends up showing sleet though lol Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM more beefed up on QPF, and more wintry with 2nd wave. That is a good sign. Little evidence of sleet. Should be mostly snow. Correct me if i'm wrong, but March storms also seem to have higher chances of Rain or Snow. (compared to sleet and frz rain) Due to typically / historically colder higher up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The useless (as everyone calls it) CRAS supports this and is leading the way with the warmth. Let's not hop in bed yet with either the CRAS or the NAM beyond 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM more beefed up on QPF, and more wintry with 2nd wave. That is a good sign. Little evidence of sleet. Should be mostly snow. Are you referencing PHL proper or is this an IMBY post? If you are talking about PHL I respectfully disagree based on this run and thermal profiles just glancing at thicknesses and 2m temps. Havent seen soundings yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 10M's and 850's are both well below freezing. should be good enough, to drag it down with heavier QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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