RedSky Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Lets do a breakdown of ABE on the Euro, shall we? Sunday 18Z, surface temp 42, above freezing up to 925 mb. Sunday 18Z to Monday 0Z QPF is 0.05" (rain). Monday 0Z, surface temp 34, 925 mb temp +2C. Monday 0Z to 6Z QPF is 0.17" (rain). Monday 6Z, surface temp 33, +1C all the way up to 800 mb. Monday 6Z to 12Z QPF is 0.21" (rain changing to sleet). Monday 12Z surface temp 30F, +2C at 800 mb. Monday 12Z to 18Z QPF is 0.47" (sleet changing to snow). Monday 18Z surface temp 26F, finally down below freezing at all levels, but still just -1C at 800 mb. Monday 18Z to Tuesday 0Z QPF is 0.21" (snow). 0.01" falls after Tuesday 0Z. By my estimation that might be 0.40" of liquid-equivalent that falls as snow. If you want to be generous you could say 0.5 or 0.6" liquid-equivalent. But its no foot, that's for sure. The voice of reason. But sleet is not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Lets do a breakdown of ABE on the Euro, shall we? Sunday 18Z, surface temp 42, above freezing up to 925 mb. Sunday 18Z to Monday 0Z QPF is 0.05" (rain). Monday 0Z, surface temp 34, 925 mb temp +2C. Monday 0Z to 6Z QPF is 0.17" (rain). Monday 6Z, surface temp 33, +1C all the way up to 800 mb. Monday 6Z to 12Z QPF is 0.21" (rain changing to sleet). Monday 12Z surface temp 30F, +2C at 800 mb. Monday 12Z to 18Z QPF is 0.47" (sleet changing to snow). Monday 18Z surface temp 26F, finally down below freezing at all levels, but still just -1C at 800 mb. Monday 18Z to Tuesday 0Z QPF is 0.21" (snow). 0.01" falls after Tuesday 0Z. By my estimation that might be 0.40" of liquid-equivalent that falls as snow. If you want to be generous you could say 0.5 or 0.6" liquid-equivalent. But its no foot, that's for sure. When would the changeover from rain to sleet occur at TTN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6z GFS is WAY colder, and snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 When would the changeover from rain to sleet occur at TTN? About 6 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The voice of reason. But sleet is not bad Sleet is awful from a plowman's standpoint. You cannot salt sleet because it doesnt melt through the sleet to get to the road, and you cannot plow it because it sticks to the road. To me, either full out snow, or full out rain. Feb-March of 07 was a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sleet is awful from a plowman's standpoint. You cannot salt sleet because it doesnt melt through the sleet to get to the road, and you cannot plow it because it sticks to the road. To me, either full out snow, or full out rain. Feb-March of 07 was a nightmare. I've been mentioning this for the last few days...Even if we only had 2-4" of snow, with sleet underneath it would be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Windvane You certainly have a right to your thoughts but a PM to Ray might be more appropriate than a post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow....................Ray is and has been one of the most knowledgeable posters on these boards going back to at least 10 years ago when i started following these things........Is he infallible.......No............but I appreciate everything he has contributed here and I have learned a ton......and while he is not immune to criticism I think you should choose your words carefully when you have a dispute with him......I believe he has earned that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Having a conversation -- even disagreeing with -- a pro met is fine, as long as it's done respectfully and constructively. But attacking will not be tolerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Having a conversation -- even disagreeing with -- a pro met is fine, as long as it's done respectfully and constructively. But attacking will not be tolerated. Thanks for being on the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I've been mentioning this for the last few days...Even if we only had 2-4" of snow, with sleet underneath it would be a nightmare. The real troubling thing about sleet is that it gives a great base for snow to accumulate on. If this ends up being an all snow event or rain to snow event, the snow might have trouble accumulating on roads. If you get a layer of sleet down first, though, and THEN get the snow on top, that snow will immediately start piling up even on busy roads and highways. Just sleet, isn't so bad. It is kind of like driving in sand, but, yeah, have that sleet followed by some snow and things will quickly get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The voice of reason. But sleet is not bad The only thing that bums me out about the potential sleet-fest is the fact that it would probably cost PHL any (slim) chance it had to break the seasonal snowfall record. It is too difficult to get 20" of snow in March (and early April) if we go about it the usual way March storms evolve for us... which is to give us dribs and drabs in 2" or 3" slush or sleet events. To have any shot at the record, we were going to need at least one more big (i.e. 10"+) event along with several more of the more typical flizzards and slush/sleet storms. This upcoming event seemed like the last, best hope for the "big event". If this one ends up being 2" of sleet followed by 2" of snow, the record is safe for another year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z GFS continues to look good. All snow north of the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 regarding Windvane's post....famartin's one of the coolest guy's here. A respectful moderator that doesn't abuse his power. I've been moderating forums for years, and he rightfully allows alot of stuff to fly here...and allows mini-debates to be ironed out in-thread. But if you attack him for no reason, of course your posts will be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12z gfs a little warmer tha 06z but cooler than 00z. Mainly snoiw near phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ray although conservative with his forecast does his best to educate and inform the readers of this sub forum. His archival web page on NJ is probably one of the best around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 i forget...........when does the canadian come out?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ray although conservative with his forecast does his best to educate and inform the readers of this sub forum. His archival web page on NJ is probably one of the best around. Indeed, and I forgot to mention that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 i forget...........when does the canadian come out?? Starts around now, should be totally out by noon... This is going to be a real tough system to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GGEM looked warmer at first, but its actually slower, cold is entrenched at 96 hours, its about to show a huge hit IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GEM is suppressed with round 2. heaviest snow in De + SJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GEM is suppressed with round 2. heaviest snow in De + SJ Yeah it slowed down the system, actually could work out a LOT better that way for us...This is what the NAM was hitning at as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GEM is suppressed with round 2. heaviest snow in De + SJ PHL area still does pretty well, actually this may be a snowier solution for us overall. I hate trying to read those GGEM black and white maps though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I wish the GFS would stop targeting SEPA for heaviest snow so far out... Like the GGEM suppressed look as a counter balance to the ECM northern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GEM is moderate event region-wide. Roughly 4-7" from trenton south and 2-4 north. Highest in SJ and De. Good snows all the way down to just below Salisbury Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If you combine the GFS and the Canadian, we're in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gee, a lot happened while I was on the road. Thanks for the defense, guys, appreciate it. there were a few comments made that I'd have liked to reply to but they're gone now. Probably for the best. I'm certainly open to criticism if anyone has it. Back on topic, definitely looks snowy on the latest guidance. Very interested in what the EC will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 When all is said and done this will likely be a 4-8 / 5-10" storm for se pa imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Are we looking for less further north into Berks/Lehigh/Poconos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 When all is said and done this will likely be a 4-8 / 5-10" storm for se pa imo.What does KPHL need to overtake #2 and get to #1 as of current numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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