DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think 12z GFS holds. Jackpot should be around all of us. Good 8"-12" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Current Wxsim with 6z GFS/NAM combo has the following for NW Chester County PA Light Sleet/Snow mix by early PM tomorrow becoming steady snow late evening by Midnight 1" of snow temp 28.4 3am - Moderate Snow with 3.0" so far 27.2 7am - Heavy Snow 6.0" 10a - Heavy Snow 9.0" 1pm - Heavy Snow 11.0" 4pm - Heavy Snow 13.0" 730pm - winding down with 14.0" of total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z NAM finally has the right idea for the storm, in line for the globals. It is still a tad south compared to GFS/EURO, but this increases my confidence for the NWS call of 6-10 for our area with maybe more for N DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .8" KDYL. 1" PHL. 12z NAM. Mix of SN/IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd still ignore NAM until tonight, however like I said it finally got the whole idea of how the storm evolves in line with the globals. Now that it has done that, I fully expect the next few runs to bump north a tad. Unless we see southern trend on the globals which I don't believe will happen based on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Still out of NAM range but fwiw southern counties of Jersey getting absolutely crushed at hour 57. Beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We're going to see some NAM weenie runs before this over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM is all over the place because it seems to suck at handling the confluence. NAM is placed on ignore until it can have two consistent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Atleast the NAM is starting to line-up with the other models on the initial cold push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:45 PM, Rib said: NAM is all over the place because it seems to suck at handling the confluence. NAM is placed on ignore until it can have two consistent runs. But the NAM has consistency. Its consistently inconsistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:51 PM, famartin said: But the NAM has consistency. Its consistently inconsistent 18z nails Toronto... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I go from a high fever to this. This winter alone is making me sick. Why do I agree with Brett about the 18z NAM. It's famous for it's weenie runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam is showing quite a banding signal imo...reminds me of 12/8/13. Whoever gets under the death band is going to get smoked! Lets see if other hires guidance picks up on this as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nobody bothered to post the 4KM Nam but I'm going to ride the 9z ARW since it's so awesome. Okay, because we get the most qpf lol. This reeks of a sharp cutoff line to the north so lets get in it, only if barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:58 PM, Rib said: Nobody bothered to post the 4KM Nam but I'm going to ride the 9z ARW since it's so awesome. Okay, because we get the most qpf lol. This reeks of a sharp cutoff line to the north so lets get in it, only if barely. 4K NAM looks good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hi res nam is a nightmare for Philly north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:19 PM, hazwoper said: Hi res nam is a nightmare for Philly north Nightmare in what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Haz, What does the 4KM show? 12KM showed ZR to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I can tell thru 18 hours GFS will look probably a tad better than 6z, the shortwave down south is more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Spoke too soon because the PV is a bit stronger....BIG hit for DC, Philly still does okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Stormvista has a blip of 12" over Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teflon Beamer Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sounds great, thanks for the PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like 10-12" for SE PA and most of SJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS. That's solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z gfs is between 00z and 6z so starting to get some consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:23 PM, DiehardFF said: Haz, What does the 4KM show? 12KM showed ZR to start.Just shows a sharp cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Seems like a lock for 6"+ for DYL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:50 PM, NEchestercountydude said: GFS. That's solid Do you realize how much this has dropped off in just the past 24-48 hrs? This does not surprise me at all as overrunning events (just overrunning, no coastal to follow) do not typically drop a foot of snow. I expect this to continue to cut back on totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:58 PM, hazwoper said: Do you realize how much this has dropped off in just the past 24-48 hrs? This does not surprise me at all as overrunning events (just overrunning, no coastal to follow) do not typically drop a foot of snow. I expect this to continue to cut back on totals. Haz the 6z and 12z GFS have the most snow for Philly, they are strengthening the shortwave. With a storm like this, there will be a tight gradient however...but on overrunning types you always have a strong band of precip on the northern edge. 6-12" for the city looks like a fair call. leaning towards 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Am I the only one who thinks it is funny we were begging the PV to hold firm so it was cold enough for snow early in the week, and now New Yorkers are upset because it is too strong pushing the precip south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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