Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 On 2/24/2014 at 9:52 PM, Highzenberg said: If less energy escapes the ULL in SE Canada we'll be fineI agree with this I just don't see it right now tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 With the retreating polar vortex, the chances of a significant storm is diminishing. There always a chance of a rogue March storm but the initial projections of the cold into March look muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Well, we ARE talking about March. Lots of storms we have gotten lucky with ( and not so lucky with in terms of precipitation.....I'm looking at you ice storm of 2/11/14. ) this year, but it seems like our frenzy is over. It would be interesting to see more snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 On 2/24/2014 at 10:48 PM, wiiluigi2002 said: Well, we ARE talking about March. Lots of storms we have gotten lucky with ( and not so lucky with in terms of precipitation.....I'm looking at you ice storm of 2/11/14. ) this year, but it seems like our frenzy is over. It would be interesting to see more snow though. ??? Almost all the long range data has us going way below normal temps with an active STJ, we are far from over just because one week didn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 18z gfs confirms our fears...has cutter written all over it. It does transfer but a little late. You can see where this is trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 On 2/24/2014 at 10:55 PM, Highzenberg said: ??? Almost all the long range data has us going way below normal temps with an active STJ, we are far from over just because one week didn't work out.way below normal? Looks about 5 - 10 degrees below normal. If it was last month that would be significant but not so much for march since the avg high temp is in the mid 50s by months end with a mean of 44. I think its about time to stick a fork in it. It was a great winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 If nothing comes outta this next 10 day period than it's pretty much over. And I will see you sick twisted freaks again in dec! A lot can happen in 10 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 On 2/24/2014 at 10:56 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z gfs confirms our fears...has cutter written all over it. It does transfer but a little late. You can see where this is trending. I'm not really seeing what you're seeing. There was a nice PNA ridge and a decent 50/50. It's 7.5 days away, not sure how anyone can be definitive about this storm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 On 2/24/2014 at 11:33 PM, NEchestercountydude said: I'm not really seeing what you're seeing. There was a nice PNA ridge and a decent 50/50. It's 7.5 days away, not sure how anyone can be definitive about this storm yet.I'm not definitely sure what will happen...no one is. I just notice a stronger primary and temps inching warmer already with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 On 2/24/2014 at 11:41 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not definitely sure what will happen...no one is. I just notice a stronger primary and temps inching warmer already with each run. Come on Ralph it's a week away. I remember Ken asking about the euro run for next weekend when it went from off the southeast coast to a lakes cutter then it was gone next day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 If we had a MOD actively here, I'd have argued that this thread shouldn't have been started until today or tomorrow, we should keep individual storm threat threads within 7 days of reality. That said, this threat isn't dead yet. I wouldn't say its likely either. Its "potential". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 On 2/24/2014 at 11:41 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not definitely sure what will happen...no one is. I just notice a stronger primary and temps inching warmer already with each run. I gotcha. I'm willing to take my chances with a more moisture loaded storm albeit it be a miller b rather then these sheered out storms occurring this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Not really talking about individual storm threats but overall pattern. We have had a great winter mostly without great teleconnections. Not sure this last pulse of the polar vortex can produce at this point. But I'm not against a last gasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 On 2/24/2014 at 11:01 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: way below normal? Looks about 5 - 10 degrees below normal. If it was last month that would be significant but not so much for march since the avg high temp is in the mid 50s by months end with a mean of 44. I think its about time to stick a fork in it. It was a great winter! why are you discussing the highs at the end of march? how is that relevant to the weather over the next two weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 On 2/25/2014 at 12:23 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: On 2/25/2014 at 12:11 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Well said. I am guilty of being way too definitive at times...something I'm working on trying to be more open minded towards different solutions. I'm having a tough time with this 'potential'. That said, can someone please point out what this system has going for it? Aside from the mjo in phase 8 and the +pna? This is, I think, the third time the Euro blew something up in the far extended (beyond day 7). The first two have gone "whif" (certainly Wednesday and it sure looks like Saturday too, though minor accumulations are still possible with both). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 On 2/24/2014 at 11:53 PM, famartin said: If we had a MOD actively here, I'd have argued that this thread shouldn't have been started until today or tomorrow, we should keep individual storm threat threads within 7 days of reality. That said, this threat isn't dead yet. I wouldn't say its likely either. Its "potential".Well said Ray. I am guilty of being too definitive at times in terms of these storm solutions. I am working hard on having more of an open mind. However, I'm struggling to remain positive with respect to the outcome of this storm. What positives beside the mjo and pna does this have going for it? (Sorry for the dual posts...tapatalk acting up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 On 2/25/2014 at 12:27 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Well said Ray. I am guilty of being too definitive at times in terms of these storm solutions. I am working hard on having more of an open mind. However, I'm struggling to remain positive with respect to the outcome of this storm. What positives beside the mjo and pna does this have going for it? (Sorry for the dual posts...tapatalk acting up) A sprawled out 1037-1040HP to the north? EURO ensemble support GEFS support 18z GFS support 12z GGEM support 12z JMA support? What else.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This storm isn't going to be a cutter with all the confluence to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 On 2/25/2014 at 1:19 AM, Highzenberg said: A sprawled out 1037-1040HP to the north? EURO ensemble support GEFS support 18z GFS support 12z GGEM support 12z JMA support? What else.... HM support, Katodog support.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I think this will be a classic miller b which cuts to the OV the redevelops off the delmarva. I'm not against this storm developing at all...I actually feel this will be an important late winter storm for some parts as the mjo and pna point to this. However, I want to see more data supporting a SE PA hit before I'm all in. Looks a litle toasty for my liking but that's just me. With that said, 0z should be interesting :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 On 2/25/2014 at 2:26 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: I think this will be a classic miller b which cuts to the OV the redevelops off the delmarva. I'm not against this storm developing at all...I actually feel this will be an important late winter storm for some parts as the mjo and pna point to this. However, I want to see more data supporting a SE PA hit before I'm all in. Looks a litle toasty for my liking but that's just me. With that said, 0z should be interesting :-) You can be the voice of reason, it was just painful seeing you throw in the towel so soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 On 2/25/2014 at 1:44 AM, KamuSnow said: HM support, Katodog support.... Now were talking quality post, especially the Katodog reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 On 2/25/2014 at 3:34 AM, Violentweatherfan said: Now were talking quality post, especially the Katodog reference. lol, their date ranges are very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 On 2/24/2014 at 10:56 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z gfs confirms our fears...has cutter written all over it. It does transfer but a little late. You can see where this is trending. First post on this board but 18Z GFS was not a classic cutter at all. It was primarily frozen for all of SEPA until after 186 when there was suspect interaction between energies as the coastal was departing that brought in some random warm air. Basically WAA snow moved into the area around 168. It stayed all snow with a very solid front end thump for all of SEPA through 177-178. From there there was a prolonged period of sleet/snow/ZR until around 186. Basically a 18 hour all frozen event until some weirdness at the end. The confluence to the north held its ground and fed the low level cold. It was the classic warm air attacking the cold high scenario that produces some of the area's most epic storms. Still a long way out and a lot can change but i would take the 18Z GFS scenario in March any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Welcome to the Philly Forum and thanks for your input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 0z GFS phases with the PV and creates a great flood, no thank you Staying up for the euro to see what it is doing after this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 00Z gfs is fugly for this threat. Looks warm all the way up to the Poconos for the entire event. Looks like that H that was anchored at 18Z exits stage right and doesn't lock the cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 On 2/25/2014 at 4:52 AM, MattMal88 said: 00Z gfs is fugly for this threat. Looks warm all the way up to the Poconos for the entire event. Looks like that H that was anchored at 18Z exits stage right and doesn't lock the cold in. It was talked about that we had a -NAO going for us with this event, but it is absent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 0z euro is a trainwreck. Spring please... j/k but need too see a reversal in todays trends 12z tomorrow. Once cutter tracks get locked in they don't like to change for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 All is not lost! EC has a little snow on the 5th still! And the GGEM has a bomb on the 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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