March 1-2 Potential Coastal Storm Thread

[jm1220]

I think with the number of dead and structural damage area wide it was historic to be certain but had it, 4 eg. been 75 miles to the north at an angle at the Hudson for example as a cat 3 ( just another 30 MPH) we would ,likely, have been talking about that mythical BECS . Thankfully that didnt come 2 pass.

A storm of Sandy's magnitude and track (the track is a large part of what made the storm so devastating, as the waves and surge hit the coast perpendicularly and not in parallel to the coast as often happens with landfalling storms here) hasn't happened in at least 200 years, so I'd say that's pretty much a BECS if I've ever seen one. Sandy likely couldn't have been much stronger than it was, for there was a significant period of wind shear before the merger with the mid latitude trough over the Midwest, and the energy from that system plus the Gulf Stream helped it to strengthen again-although much of the strengthening went to increasing the storm size rather than the central intensity. The huge size also greatly increased the surge, as it increased the water being funneled into the harbors and bays. Sandy underwent the same processes as the 1991 Perfect Storm but was double its intensity. It's hard for me to think of Sandy in any other meteorological terms-it by far is the most notable meteorological event any of us have ever seen and likely will ever see again in our lives.

[PB GFI]

A storm of Sandy's magnitude and track (the track is a large part of what made the storm so devastating, as the waves and surge hit the coast perpendicularly and not in parallel to the coast as often happens with landfalling storms here) hasn't happened in at least 200 years, so I'd say that's pretty much a BECS if I've ever seen one. Sandy likely couldn't have been much stronger than it was, for there was a significant period of wind shear before the merger with the mid latitude trough over the Midwest, and the energy from that system plus the Gulf Stream helped it to strengthen again-although much of the strengthening went to increasing the storm size rather than the central intensity. The huge size also greatly increased the surge, as it increased the water being funneled into the harbors and bays. Sandy underwent the same processes as the 1991 Perfect Storm but was double its intensity. It's hard for me to think of Sandy in any other meteorological terms-it by far is the most notable meteorological event any of us have ever seen and likely will ever see again in our lives.

I second that , out does anything I`ve witnessed in the NE  - last part , ( Never say never  but  lets just all hope we don`t . )

[Yanksfan]

A storm of Sandy's magnitude and track (the track is a large part of what made the storm so devastating, as the waves and surge hit the coast perpendicularly and not in parallel to the coast as often happens with landfalling storms here) hasn't happened in at least 200 years, so I'd say that's pretty much a BECS if I've ever seen one. Sandy likely couldn't have been much stronger than it was, for there was a significant period of wind shear before the merger with the mid latitude trough over the Midwest, and the energy from that system plus the Gulf Stream helped it to strengthen again-although much of the strengthening went to increasing the storm size rather than the central intensity. The huge size also greatly increased the surge, as it increased the water being funneled into the harbors and bays. Sandy underwent the same processes as the 1991 Perfect Storm but was double its intensity. It's hard for me to think of Sandy in any other meteorological terms-it by far is the most notable meteorological event any of us have ever seen and likely will ever see again in our lives.

While not of magnitude of Sandy as far as destruction or loss of life, the superstorm of 93 ranks up there as well. You already had a triple phased system in the gulf. Heavy snow and wind from georgia to maine. Don't think we'll see that setup again for a long time to come.

[nycwinter]

While not of magnitude of Sandy as far as destruction or loss of life, the superstorm of 93 ranks up there as well. You already had a triple phased system in the gulf. Heavy snow and wind from georgia to maine. Don't think we'll see that setup again for a long time to come.

more people died during the superstorm than in sandy thought it is close..i think the superstorm did more widespread damage than sandy affecting the states..

[USCG RS]

I second that , out does anything I`ve witnessed in the NE - last part , ( Never say never but lets just all hope we don`t . )

I for one hope we never do again (as much as I love weather). The amount of rescues were off the charts and it goes so much further than that.

Someone said earlier that the lack of death and destruction keeps it as historical, but I will agree to disagree on that point. I pulled rescues along Fire Island and Long Beach as well as down the Jersey Shore and into the AC area. I even helped with Breezy Point (though really there was no help to be had there). My point is that the destruction I saw first hand was absolute devastation. Luckily for the most part we had advanced enough warning to have the majority of the public move to safer and less vulnerable areas, yet the amount of infrastructure utterly destroyed or rendered uninhabitable was insane. I even recall pictures and video of the Battery Tunnel and the wall of water just rushing into Lower Manhattan. If memory serves me correctly, we had the Storm Surge equivalent to a Cat 5 hurricane in parts of the Lower Manhattan area.

Lastly, I will say between my study of history and meteorology, I can never recall such a strong system affecting such a wide area of real estate. The evolution of the storm also made Sandy incredibly unique.

[jm1220]

more people died during the superstorm than in sandy thought it is close..i think the superstorm did more widespread damage than sandy affecting the states..

The 1993 Superstorm did not entirely devastate a 100 mile stretch of coast from Atlantic City to Fire Island, or completely paralyze the largest city in the United States. As severe as the 1993 storm was, the effects from it lasted maybe a week. My town is still rebuilding from Sandy and will be rebuilding for years more to come.

[USCG RS]

The 1993 Superstorm did not entirely devastate a 100 mile stretch of coast from Atlantic City to Fire Island, or completely paralyze the largest city in the United States. As severe as the 1993 storm was, the effects from it lasted maybe a week. My town is still rebuilding from Sandy and will be rebuilding for years more to come.

And unfortunately, some houses and businesses will never be rebuilt. Sandy not only took lives, it took livelihoods. I can't tell you how many people I have encountered that have lost virtually everything because of Sandy. The superstorm of 1993, while paralyzing to business for a period of time, was not livelihood ending.

[Juliancolton]

I'm of the opinion that the atmosphere will continue to find ways to impress us in the coming years, potentially by the mechanics of a warming/changing climate. We may not see another triple-phased trough spawn a 970 mb low in the Gulf, or another 1,000-mile-across warm-secluded post-hurricane barrel into NJ, but it's hard to imagine Sandy being the most significant storm event of our lives (assuming many of us live at least another 40 or 50 years).

 

On another note, there's really no way to objectively categorize one natural disaster over another of arguably similar magnitude. I'm sure to the families of the 300+ people who died in the superstorm, the effects lasted more than a week.

[USCG RS]

I'm sure to the families of the 300+ people who died in the superstorm, the effects lasted more than a week.

fair point.

[bluewave]

I would say that Sandy was one of the most anomalous and damaging large scale weather events in the

history of the United States. 

 

 

http://www.ldeo.colu...l_submitted.pdf

 

http://www.climatece...tudy-says-15505

 

 Abstract  Hurricane Sandy’s track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to  perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record. This steep angle  was one of many contributing factors to a surge-plus-tide peak-water level that  surpassed 4m in parts of New Jersey and New York. The lack of precedent in the  historic record makes it difficult to estimate the rate of Sandy-like events using solely historic landfalls. Here we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricane tracks. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions a hurricane of Sandy’s intensity or greater (category 1+) is expected to make NJ landfall at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy at an average annual 35 rate of only 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 yr (95% confidence range 1429 to 435).Thus, either Sandy was an exceedingly rare storm, or our assumption of long-term average climate conditions is erroneous.

[PB GFI]

And unfortunately, some houses and businesses will never be rebuilt. Sandy not only took lives, it took livelihoods. I can't tell you how many people I have encountered that have lost virtually everything because of Sandy. The superstorm of 1993, while paralyzing to business for a period of time, was not livelihood ending.

As lovers of meteorology and weather  many people are easily desensitized to how dangerous  93 , Sandy or storms of that ilk are .

You are talking life changing and life ending events .  Kudos to you for putting you`re own life in danger to rescue people .  

Most of us were lucky to be hunkered down .  I love anomalous events , but as I get older I start to think  what`s severe  to me may be life threatening to others , so I am hesitant to root them on anymore .

[jm1220]

And unfortunately, some houses and businesses will never be rebuilt. Sandy not only took lives, it took livelihoods. I can't tell you how many people I have encountered that have lost virtually everything because of Sandy. The superstorm of 1993, while paralyzing to business for a period of time, was not livelihood ending.

Yup, I certainly know a lot of those people. As bad as it was for me personally, it was much worse for a lot of other people. There are probably hundreds of homes just in my town that are still waiting to be torn down, and families living with relatives still, etc.

[jm1220]

As lovers of meteorology and weather  many people are easily desensitized to how dangerous  93 , Sandy or storms of that ilk are .

You are talking life changing and life ending events .  Kudos to you for putting you`re own life in danger to rescue people .  

Most of us were lucky to be hunkered down .  I love anomalous events , but as I get older I start to think  what`s severe  to me may be life threatening to others , so I am hesitant to root them on anymore .

I'll never root on a devastating storm like Perfect Storm Sandy, that's for sure. As much as I like extreme weather, I don't want an outcome that destroys people's lives and property. And unfortunately, the storm tracked and timed itself in such a way to make itself catastrophic. The surge also hit at the worst possible time.

[USCG RS]

As lovers of meteorology and weather many people are easily desensitized to how dangerous 93 , Sandy or storms of that ilk are .

You are talking life changing and life ending events . Kudos to you for putting you`re own life in danger to rescue people .

Most of us were lucky to be hunkered down . I love anomalous events , but as I get older I start to think what`s severe to me may be life threatening to others , so I am hesitant to root them on anymore .

Your words are kind, thank you. Yes, there is a part of most who love this science that love to see the larger storms. But I think I can speak for many people when I say, Sandy was never something I rooted for or will ever root for.

[IsentropicLift]

For those following a long at home the 18z GFS is dry for the March 1st-2nd threat.

[Ralph Wiggum]

This threat is just about as dead as winter. We had a great run tho.

[Heisy]

This threat is just about as dead as winter. We had a great run tho.

 

 

Damn Ralph one week of missed storms and you are ready to throw in the towel? Have you seen the CFS2/Weeklies? MJO?....Winter has 2-3 more weeks in him.

[BlueSkiesFading]

Damn Ralph one week of missed storms and you are ready to throw in the towel? Have you seen the CFS2/Weeklies? MJO?....Winter has 2-3 more weeks in him.

Can you (or someone) post the CFS2? I know it nailed the February cold/wet anomolies from this range. I'm curious to see what it's showing for March, but I don't have the link.