RU848789 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Should a new thread be opened every time the day ten GFS shows a hurricane hitting our area? The models have been especially bad this year post day 7 thanks to a very volatile setup. Moreso than the setup, meteorology simply isn't advanced enough right now to provide deterministic forecasts of much accuracy beyond 7-8 days, which is why the NWS forecasts don't go beyond 7 days. Due to weather being chaotic in nature, combined with the inaccuracy of the initial conditions, the error bars on possible outcomes beyond 7 days simply become too large for any certainty. I wouldn't advocate not allowing threads beyond that timeframe, but I think they're largely useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 True but it's your choice if you want to post in it or not. No one is forcing anyone to post in threads where a storm is more than a week out. Well whether I choose to post in it or not it creates some confusion. You have the same storm being discussed in two separate threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Sheared out mess for Saturday on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Sheared out mess for Saturday on the GFS It's pretty easy to see what happens. The PV doesn't split off a piece of energy. Instead the southern stream vort gets shunted harmlessly OTS while getting sheared out in the process. Unless the PV miraculously shows signs of splitting that's the likely end result. A few days ago I thought we could get away with more of a SWFE type event but the influence from the PV is too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It's pretty easy to see what happens. The PV doesn't split off a piece of energy. Instead the southern stream vort gets shunted harmlessly OTS while getting sheared out in the process. Unless the PV miraculously shows signs of splitting that's the likely end result. A few days ago I thought we could get away with more of a SWFE type event but the influence from the PV is too strong. Yep. The confluence kills the system. Snow showers/light snow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Moreso than the setup, meteorology simply isn't advanced enough right now to provide deterministic forecasts of much accuracy beyond 7-8 days, which is why the NWS forecasts don't go beyond 7 days. Due to weather being chaotic in nature, combined with the inaccuracy of the initial conditions, the error bars on possible outcomes beyond 7 days simply become too large for any certainty. I wouldn't advocate not allowing threads beyond that timeframe, but I think they're largely useless. IMO, this is a key point. One can discuss general patterns, keeping in mind uncertainty, in the extended range. However, specific solutions and detail have very high uncertainty in the extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 EURO 0Z>>Tot. Sn. shows 8-10" for NYC on March 03! Is that part of the same complex as 3/1-2? A week ago the EURO had 20" here in NYC for one run on March 01! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yep. The confluence kills the system. Snow showers/light snow at best. The setup behind this one looks interesting. But again it looks to come down to whether or not the PV decides to split off a piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 EURO 0Z>>Tot. Sn. shows 8-10" for NYC on March 03! Is that part of the same complex as 3/1-2? A week ago the EURO had 20" here in NYC for one run on March 01! Is this a serious post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 EURO 0Z>>Tot. Sn. shows 8-10" for NYC on March 03! Is that part of the same complex as 3/1-2? A week ago the EURO had 20" here in NYC for one run on March 01! Seems legit....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The weenie is strong in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Lets be frank and factor in psychology of this forum right now : vast majority, like me, are snow lovers. We just missed yesterday, about to, largely, miss tomrw night/ Wed. Chances are Sat ( which was intially BECS according 2 Euro) will fizzle as well. Lo& behold we are now latching on to the next one (7 days away) . Can anyone spell ADDICTION ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 IMO, this is a key point. One can discuss general patterns, keeping in mind uncertainty, in the extended range. However, specific solutions and detail have very high uncertainty in the extended range. don - thanks. Just curious if you saw my long thread/post I started on chaos and uncertainty in meteorology a week or so ago in the NYC forum. Given your knowledge in this area, I thought you might find it of interest (it's on the 2nd page of the NYC forum now)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The weenie is strong in this one. good one - another regular from the RU football board - what have I wrought (lol)? Welcome - if I recall correctly, didn't you get a degree in meteorology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Lets be frank and factor in psychology of this forum right now : vast majority, like me, are snow lovers. We just missed yesterday, about to, largely, miss tomrw night/ Wed. Chances are Sat ( which was intially BECS according 2 Euro) will fizzle as well. Lo& behold we are now latching on to the next one (7 days away) . Can anyone spell ADDICTION ? It's getting late in the ballgame now....figure we're in the top of the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 12z GGEM has some light snow next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 12z GGEM has some light snow next Saturday. It looks like it improved for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 good one - another regular from the RU football board - what have I wrought (lol)? Welcome - if I recall correctly, didn't you get a degree in meteorology?No sir.. I'm a Computer Science graduate.I do have to blame you though for making me check this site (and NOAA) every couple hours. Never heard of this site until you mentioned it couple of years ago on a Scarlet Nation weather thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 No one should be giving up on the weekend system. ..could be the biggest snowfall this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I'm not, but the March 3-4 threat does show more promise. Let's see what the EURO shows later on. Hope it shows a snow bomb. We need to wake up the weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 I'm not, but the March 3-4 threat does show more promise. Let's see what the EURO shows later on. Hope it shows a snow bomb. We need to wake up the weenies! Doubt we see that but this threat may still produce atleast some measurable snows. The days of this storm showing a BECS on the EURO are all but past ( barring a miracle ), however a better placed PV should help bump this thing north some. 5+ days out anything can and will most likely change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Lets be frank and factor in psychology of this forum right now : vast majority, like me, are snow lovers. We just missed yesterday, about to, largely, miss tomrw night/ Wed. Chances are Sat ( which was intially BECS according 2 Euro) will fizzle as well. Lo& behold we are now latching on to the next one (7 days away) . Can anyone spell ADDICTION ? Where to start here? What in the world did we miss last night? When was last night ever an event? As for this weekend, there is no such thing as a BECS, and the Euro never even portrayed a HECS. The fact is that the pattern is more conducive to a possible event next week....it is fair to wonder if we might be getting too late in the season, but it is hard to listen about these alleged misses, when most of the area has cashed in big time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Where to start here? What in the world did we miss last night? When was last night ever an event? As for this weekend, there is no such thing as a BECS, and the Euro never even portrayed a HECS. The fact is that the pattern is more conducive to a possible event next week....it is fair to wonder if we might be getting too late in the season, but it is hard to listen about these alleged misses, when most of the area has cashed in big time this winter. First of all the term BECS is used humorsely, 2ndly Euro did indeed for 5 straight runs aproximatly 6 days ago showed 20+ inches for RDU- Maine and that would most definitly count as an HECS. Thirdly, multiple models showed 1-3 inches after some rain for yesterday and it was sliced down to c-1 and even THAt didnt happen. Finally, Wed. for s tretch, particularly on the Euro was showing 4-8 inches until it started to fizzle. No one is complaining , read the post carefully & you'll understand Im commenting on the rampant weenism- nothing more & nothing less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 12z Euro looks like it will have some light snow for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro moves the pv further west for Saturday. Looks to be some light snow. But it shall remain suppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 First of all the term BECS is used humorsely, 2ndly Euro did indeed for 5 straight runs aproximatly 6 days ago showed 20+ inches for RDU- Maine and that would most definitly count as an HECS. Thirdly, multiple models showed 1-3 inches after some rain for yesterday and it was sliced down to c-1 and even THAt didnt happen. Finally, Wed. for s tretch, particularly on the Euro was showing 4-8 inches until it started to fizzle. No one is complaining , read the post carefully & you'll understand Im commenting on the rampant weenism- nothing more & nothing lessI would say Sandy was a BECS, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro moves the pv further west for Saturday. Looks to be some light snow. But it shall remain suppressive Keep getting that PV to not be so overwhelming it may be a better outcome. We shall see as the week goes on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The Wiggum Storm still has some legs. Might not be a mecs but we all get a little something out of it so it seems. The timing of the PV retrograding is critical in getting precip up this way. Methinks we'll make out fine and this is likely our bigger snowmaker for the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I would say Sandy was a BECS, imho. I think with the number of dead and structural damage area wide it was historic to be certain but had it, 4 eg. been 75 miles to the north at an angle at the Hudson for example as a cat 3 ( just another 30 MPH) we would ,likely, have been talking about that mythical BECS . Thankfully that didnt come 2 pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I think with the number of dead and structural damage area wide it was historic to be certain but had it, 4 eg. been 75 miles to the north at an angle at the Hudson for example as a cat 3 ( just another 30 MPH) we would ,likely, have been talking about that mythical BECS . Thankfully that didnt come 2 pass. Hard to say because a cat 3 hurricane would've had its strongest winds near the center and on the right side meaning much lower impact for nj with a track like that..also much shorter duration for he strongest winds. IMO sandy can't be compared to any true tropical storm or hurricane in this area...just a totally different animal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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