REDMK6GLI Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 First weekend of march looks to be under the threat of a possible coastal storm for the East Coast. Current US and Global guidance has this storm in varying locations and strength/orientation. Teleconnectors look pretty good going into this period, however underlying changes in the flow could help or hurt this threat as this week goes on such as the pacific wave progged to come on shore, PV strength/orientation etc. Constructive analysis contributed to this thread will be greatly appreciated and PLEASE TAKE PERSONAL ATTACKS/**** measuring to the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 as of right now have to go with HPC that this will also be a light event at best - of course between now and 3/2 there is potential for more or less - as I mentioned in the 2/26 thread that PV coming so far south is NOT good for snow chances here - needs to stay a little further north http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 as of right now have to go with HPC that this will also be a light event at best - of course between now and 3/2 there is potential for more or less - as I mentioned in the 2/26 thread that PV coming so far south is NOT good for snow chances here - needs to stay a little further north http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif The GFS did show the PV actually splitting and trying to phase into the storm. Promising as that looked we have to wait a few more days most likely till wednesday to see where this will head. This thread was worth starting as the POTENTIAL is there for atleast a noteable storm if some things change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Ggem seemed to be coming on board as well last night. Had a huge 1048 hp diving south with hints of a phase on that model as well. We can make out even without a phase though if the pv retrogrades and the confluence ends up in a better spot it could pull the system north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Ggem seemed to be coming on board as well last night. Had a huge 1048 hp diving south with hints of a phase on that model as well. We can make out even without a phase though if the pv retrogrades and the confluence ends up in a better spot it could pull the system north. PV will definetly retrograde and you are right that is when the storm chances increase - PV being so close to us mid and latter week favors storms off the coast a littletoo far east to get a significant event although we could get glancing 1-3 inch events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Fwiw 12z gfs increases precip yet again for this system. Pulls the pv out amd allows the southern energy to drift northward. Temps are marginal attm but verbatim looks like some paste for nyc and phl on this run. Plenty of time to work things out but the key is this system continues to be progged stronger and farther north affecting most of the EC in one form or another. I'm at work now with no access to the ukie or ggem...can someone please report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Fwiw 12z gfs increases precip yet again for this system. Pulls the pv out amd allows the southern energy to drift northward. Temps are marginal attm but verbatim looks like some paste for nyc and phl on this run. Plenty of time to work things out but the key is this system continues to be progged stronger and farther north affecting most of the EC in one form or another. I'm at work now with no access to the ukie or ggem...can someone please report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 12z Navgem for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I am not sure if i would say that this image looks very promising for a big storm.. As long as the Polar Vortex remains south..I think we will be dealing with cold and a suppressed storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Nice trend W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro has 4 threats 2/24, 3/1, 3/3, and again 3/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro looks nice for next weekend and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Gfs looks nice for next weekend as well. Takes a low out of the gulf up the coast to hatteras and ne from there. Weak low but plenty of qpf for the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Next weekend may not be a very big snow threat for the coast as temps look marginal at best.. looks like the pv might retrograde to far north.....And I've seen forecasters saying that they believe the low will then hug the coast. And we all know what that means for NYC east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Next weekend may not be a very big snow threat for the coast as temps look marginal at best.. looks like the pv might retrograde to far north.....And I've seen forecasters saying that they believe the low will then hug the coast. And we all know what thay means for NYC east....agreed...coastal areas would be in trouble verbatim this run. Lets get some consistency on guidance then we can begin to discuss temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 agreed...coastal areas would be in trouble verbatim this run. Lets get some consistency on guidance then we can begin to discuss temps. We'll see about that if it CAN bomb that can overcome a great deal of BL issues down to the coast. WAYYY too far out but it is something to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro control has a nice snowstorm for the area on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This Threat is gone, storm a couple days later could b the real deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This Threat is gone, storm a couple days later could b the real dealkeeps getting pushed back...will believe it when I see it. I havent given up on the weekend system just yet tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 From UPTON: HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRES APPROACHES ON SATURDAY... POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND THEN A STRONGER LOW APPROACHES FOR MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...AN EVEN COLDER AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 keeps getting pushed back...will believe it when I see it. I havent given up on the weekend system just yet tho. It isn't the same system, it's not getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It isn't the same system, it's not getting pushed back.I know this. ..just saying the big threat is always just 7-10 days away it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 We really need to quit opening threads on every weenie threat a week+ out... it's killing our mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 We really need to quit opening threads on every weenie threat a week+ out... it's killing our mojo. I started this because it did have some legs and who know it may still produce a few inches of snow for the area. This was legit threat thus why the thread was started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I started this because it did have some legs and who know it may still produce a few inches of snow for the area. This was legit threat thus why the thread was started. The Euro had a big storm for our area several runs in a row. A thread was needed for this. As of right now, it doesn't look good but things can still change. We need the PV to relax if we want to see a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I started this because it did have some legs and who know it may still produce a few inches of snow for the area. This was legit threat thus why the thread was started. I agree with him, this could have easily been covered by a general March discussion thread. At least get it inside 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 We really need to quit opening threads on every weenie threat a week+ out... it's killing our mojo. Agree, It's like starting a new thread on a GFS 240 hour weather porn image. Let them get a little bit closer than that. Say 7 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The Euro had a big storm for our area several runs in a row. A thread was needed for this. As of right now, it doesn't look good but things can still change. We need the PV to relax if we want to see a big storm. Should a new thread be opened every time the day ten GFS shows a hurricane hitting our area? The models have been especially bad this year post day 7 thanks to a very volatile setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 I agree with him, this could have easily been covered by a general March discussion thread. At least get it inside 7 days. Well i did start one yesterday and it could've but either way yank we would've still talked about it. Julian colton does have a point but its not like it was not worth it at all to start a thread. Anyway still bears watching and in a winter like this truly anything goes till nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Should a new thread be opened every time the day ten GFS shows a hurricane hitting our area? The models have been especially bad this year post day 7 thanks to a very volatile setup. True but it's your choice if you want to post in it or not. No one is forcing anyone to post in threads where a storm is more than a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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