CONUS Cold This Week

[vortex95]

Is this week's cold really as big as it is being hyped as?   Looking at the 00z GFS, it

seems the brunt of the extreme cold is held in Canada, and only the Northern Plains/

Great Lakes/Northeast get into it well.  Looking at the 516 thickness at 132 hr, that

only encompasses about 10% of the CONUS.  Same goes for the -21 contour at 850. 

Through 192 hr,  the zero line at 850 never makes to the the Gulf Coast.  As has

been the case all winter, FL escapes any real significant cold and I see no threat
to the citrus crops there.  See 132 hr GFS maps attached.

Point is it looks nothing like anywhere near some of the big historical cold outbreaks

that has affected the CONUS in the past.  Those swept all the way through the Gulf

of Mexico and FL.  Yes, it is later Feb, but it is still meteorological winter, and bigger
cold outbreaks have occurred in this month before.  Heck, the Blizzard of 93 two

weeks later than this coming week drove accumulating snow to the Gulf Coast with

3" in Mobile AL with snow falling in Jacksonville FL.  Record cold temps behind the

storm spread into South, including most of FL.

Here's more historical perspective:

The coldest I see it get at 850 in the next week in the CONUS is -30
across nrn MN and the U.P. of MI.  -27 across northern New England.
Although very cold, let's keep things in perspective as to how far
extreme this really is.  On April 7, 1982, the day after a powder blizzard
buried New England, a pool of 850 temps down to -25 spread into NY
and northern New England.

The coldest 1000-500 thk (492) in the next week I see straddles the
Canadian border from the Northern Plains to New England.  On April 5, 1995,
a very strong, brief cold shot moved in the Northeast.  492 thk spread
across northern New England with -20 at 850 as far S as a BOS-NYC line.

See the four panel 1982 and 1995 maps attached.

 

[CoastalWx]

[donsutherland1]

Is this week's cold really as big as it is being hyped as?   ..

 

Great discussion. I fully agree. The cold will be significant relative to seasonal norms, but does not appear to be historic. NYC, for example, will likely see its coldest reading in the teens, not single digits.

[CoastalWx]

It's possible the "coldest" anomalies may be this weekend if a storm does track along the gulf coast and raise the chances of more snow and/or ice.

 

Also, with that arctic high pressure building down, thicknesses won't always tell the story. This will probably be a classic shallow airmass bleeding into parts in the deep south away from the Gulf Coast.

[vortex95]

Great discussion. I fully agree. The cold will be significant relative to seasonal norms, but does not appear to be historic. NYC, for example, will likely see its coldest reading in the teens, not single digits.

Thank you.

Granted the temp anomalies stick around a lot longer for this event, but you'd expect that in

meteorological winter. CoastalWx is big on duration he has told me, but that is not what I was

pointing out here.  Shear anomaly is what I was focusing on.

BOS high on April 7, 1982 was 25 F.  That was lower than the previous record *low* for the

day.  Talk about an anomaly!  -25 C at 850 anywhere in the CONUS in April is truly

remarkable.

 

While on anomalies:

 

903 tornadoes in the U.S. 2013.  That's two years in a row below 1000, not since 1988-89

has that occurred.  When you factor in better technology/detection and chasers/cameras

everywhere now, that is also truly remarkable.

[CoastalWx]

Well the anomalies across the nrn tier are remarkable. Depends how you look at it...but compared to this winter...it's just another cold shot...lol. It is interesting that the cold hasn't penetrated deeply to the Gulf coast or FL for longer periods of time. The Gulf coast had a brief shot, but FL has escaped.

[Ginx snewx]

The anamolies for the time of year will certainly be notable. Today's Euro op brings near record 850s to the NE. I suspect the surface temps will fall well under MOS

[ORH_wxman]

The core of the cold will be lurking close to the border...we'll have to wait and see how far south it ends up advecting.

 

The 12z ECWMF has INL getting down to a -33C 850 temps on Saturday. If that occurred, that would break the record for the lowest 850mb recorded there in the month of March. It is a pretty remarkable airmass, however, we may miss the brunt of it. Some southern Canada will likely set some records with it.

[Harry]

The core of the cold will be lurking close to the border...we'll have to wait and see how far south it ends up advecting.

 

The 12z ECWMF has INL getting down to a -33C 850 temps on Saturday. If that occurred, that would break the record for the lowest 850mb recorded there in the month of March. It is a pretty remarkable airmass, however, we may miss the brunt of it. Some southern Canada will likely set some records with it.

 

It is very possible we could see some big records fall out this way. Some recent euro runs have showed temps failing to reach 10 here for highs and lows of -10 to -20 for the first day or two of March. IF that happened the monthly record ( March-Current record for month is 11 ) for coldest max would fall and as well the coldest ever March temp which at the moment stands at -11. Latest single digit high here currently is Feb 21st. Many areas around here still have a decent snow pack as well which should aid the cold.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The 00z euro/GFS don't look epically cold.

I haven't paid a lot of attention to it but this looks pretty contained in terms of extent of the big time cold getting very far South.

[Jebman]

Is this week's cold really as big as it is being hyped as?   Looking at the 00z GFS, it

seems the brunt of the extreme cold is held in Canada, and only the Northern Plains/

Great Lakes/Northeast get into it well.  Looking at the 516 thickness at 132 hr, that

only encompasses about 10% of the CONUS.  Same goes for the -21 contour at 850. 

Through 192 hr,  the zero line at 850 never makes to the the Gulf Coast.  As has

been the case all winter, FL escapes any real significant cold and I see no threat

to the citrus crops there.  See 132 hr GFS maps attached.

Point is it looks nothing like anywhere near some of the big historical cold outbreaks

that has affected the CONUS in the past.  Those swept all the way through the Gulf

of Mexico and FL.  Yes, it is later Feb, but it is still meteorological winter, and bigger

cold outbreaks have occurred in this month before.  Heck, the Blizzard of 93 two

weeks later than this coming week drove accumulating snow to the Gulf Coast with

3" in Mobile AL with snow falling in Jacksonville FL.  Record cold temps behind the

storm spread into South, including most of FL.

Here's more historical perspective:

The coldest I see it get at 850 in the next week in the CONUS is -30

across nrn MN and the U.P. of MI.  -27 across northern New England.

Although very cold, let's keep things in perspective as to how far

extreme this really is.  On April 7, 1982, the day after a powder blizzard

buried New England, a pool of 850 temps down to -25 spread into NY

and northern New England.

The coldest 1000-500 thk (492) in the next week I see straddles the

Canadian border from the Northern Plains to New England.  On April 5, 1995,

a very strong, brief cold shot moved in the Northeast.  492 thk spread

across northern New England with -20 at 850 as far S as a BOS-NYC line.

See the four panel 1982 and 1995 maps attached.

Seems reasonable that we will experience seasonable temps for the next 7 days in the Mid Atlantic then a likely warmup. I have always felt that Virginia would see an early spring this year. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

People will rate this essentially using their backyards as a measuring stick.  STL is locked in for the 23rd coldest winter on record here. 

 

Which is the coldest since 2000/01 which is 14th coldest.  and the coldest since 1983/84 before that which is the current 23rd coldest. 

 

Official records go back to 1874.  We just can't compete with the large amount of big cold winters the further back you go.  Outside of the 1972-1984 period almost all of the top 25 coldest here are one hundred years ago or more.  You can extend that to the top 40 coldest and you can throw in 2009-2011 at 30th and 36th coldest and a hanful of years in the 1950s-1980s time period but most are still pre WWII.

 

The hype locally however has been way over the top versus the actual result.

 

The references to the late 1970s are ridiculous.  And they were mostly going on in mid to late January before February which anomaly wise will be the coldest month by far this winter here but about the same as January in absolutes came in and pushed this winter below the recent winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11.

 

2009-10 is less than 1F warmer.  2010-11 is 1.5F warmer.  Hype wise you would think this winter blows them out of the park in terms of cold. 

 

I get why it's easy for folks to think it must be like all time cold when only 2000/01 is colder than 2013/14 unless you go back to 1983/84.  Thirty winters of less persitent and deep cold has probably softened the expectations of folks not well verses in weather history locally. 

 

Persistence is key I think.  The next 10 days at least look pretty damn cold like -5 to -12F for the most part.  But that is highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s except one maybe two days of highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.

 

Don't get me wrong that is some strong persistent cold.  But historically records are in the minus single digits and single digits thru mid March here. 

 

The current forecast calls for one night around 10F with most in the 19-24F range during the next 7 days. The normal lows are in the 30-32F range.  So persistence definitely seems to be driving the hype.

 

 

Essentially for anyone under 35 years old this would be tied for the 2nd coldest winter of their lifetime here.  And if we are being more realistic with decent cogntive recall you push that back to folks that are about 40 years old and that just takes them back to their early childhood. 

 

If you were an adult when it was colder outside of 2000/01 you would be at least 50 years old now.

[bluewave]

The core of the cold will be lurking close to the border...we'll have to wait and see how far south it ends up advecting.

 

The 12z ECWMF has INL getting down to a -33C 850 temps on Saturday. If that occurred, that would break the record for the lowest 850mb recorded there in the month of March. It is a pretty remarkable airmass, however, we may miss the brunt of it. Some southern Canada will likely set some records with it.

 

Yeah, historic cold in that region this winter.

 

Duluth is experiencing the second coldest winter season on record & we have 6 days to go which will be below normal.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Including the fantasy range, 0Z GFS keeps Chicago below freezing for two weeks, into March.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, historic cold in that region this winter.

 

Duluth is experiencing the second coldest winter season on record & we have 6 days to go which will be below normal.

 

BhL42OMCIAA0-p4.png-large.png

 

 

 

Duluth has a legit shot to beat 1874-1875 for their coldest winter on record. The rest of the week is going to bring their average down...but the question is whether it is enough to get another several tenths.

[donsutherland1]

People will rate this essentially using their backyards as a measuring stick.  STL is locked in for the 23rd coldest winter on record here. 

 

Which is the coldest since 2000/01 which is 14th coldest.  and the coldest since 1983/84 before that which is the current 23rd coldest. 

 

Official records go back to 1874.  We just can't compete with the large amount of big cold winters the further back you go.  Outside of the 1972-1984 period almost all of the top 25 coldest here are one hundred years ago or more.  You can extend that to the top 40 coldest and you can throw in 2009-2011 at 30th and 36th coldest and a hanful of years in the 1950s-1980s time period but most are still pre WWII.

 

The hype locally however has been way over the top versus the actual result.

 

The references to the late 1970s are ridiculous.  And they were mostly going on in mid to late January before February which anomaly wise will be the coldest month by far this winter here but about the same as January in absolutes came in and pushed this winter below the recent winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11.

 

2009-10 is less than 1F warmer.  2010-11 is 1.5F warmer.  Hype wise you would think this winter blows them out of the park in terms of cold. 

 

I get why it's easy for folks to think it must be like all time cold when only 2000/01 is colder than 2013/14 unless you go back to 1983/84.  Thirty winters of less persitent and deep cold has probably softened the expectations of folks not well verses in weather history locally. 

 

Persistence is key I think.  The next 10 days at least look pretty damn cold like -5 to -12F for the most part.  But that is highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s except one maybe two days of highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.

 

Don't get me wrong that is some strong persistent cold.  But historically records are in the minus single digits and single digits thru mid March here. 

 

The current forecast calls for one night around 10F with most in the 19-24F range during the next 7 days. The normal lows are in the 30-32F range.  So persistence definitely seems to be driving the hype.

 

 

Essentially for anyone under 35 years old this would be tied for the 2nd coldest winter of their lifetime here.  And if we are being more realistic with decent cogntive recall you push that back to folks that are about 40 years old and that just takes them back to their early childhood. 

 

If you were an adult when it was colder outside of 2000/01 you would be at least 50 years old now.

Overall, the winter has been impressive, both in terms of cold and snow. In some locations such as Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay , Duluth, etc., it has been a near-historic-type winter.

 

On the larger scale, though, I agree with your point about the hype. In the CONUS, this will rank among the coldest winters since 2000. It almost certainly won't be the coldest winter since the 1970s. The cold anomalies also won't be as widespread as the epic 1978-79 winter.

[ORH_wxman]

Overall, the winter has been impressive, both in terms of cold and snow. In some locations such as Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay , Duluth, etc., it has been a near-historic-type winter.

 

On the larger scale, though, I agree with your point about the hype. In the CONUS, this will rank among the coldest winters since 2000. It almost certainly won't be the coldest winter since the 1970s. The cold anomalies also won't be as widespread as the epic 1978-79 winter.

 

 

It will be relatively close, but I do not think February will be cold enough to beat 2009-2010....which is tied with 1984-1985 as the coldest winter since the 1970s in the CONUS. 1983-1984 was very close behind those two winters and we will fall short of that one too. We do have a legit chance to beat 2000-2001 and long with 1992-1993 though and an outside chance at 1981-1982.

 

Through the end of January, the CONUS was -2.03F below the 1981-2010 mean for winter. This year would need a February anomaly of -4.12F to come in at -2.68F which would beat 1981-1982's -2.67F...that looks to be a long shot right now, but plausible. The -2.91F winter anomalies of 1984-1985/2009-2010 and -2.89 anomaly of 1983-1984 look to be out of reach.

 

A February anomaly of -3.22F is needed to come in colder than 2000-2001 which is still a distinct possibility.

[donsutherland1]

It will be relatively close, but I do not think February will be cold enough to beat 2009-2010....which is tied with 1984-1985 as the coldest winter since the 1970s in the CONUS. 1983-1984 was very close behind those two winters and we will fall short of that one too. We do have a legit chance to beat 2000-2001 and long with 1992-1993 though and an outside chance at 1981-1982.

 

Through the end of January, the CONUS was -2.03F below the 1981-2010 mean for winter. This year would need a February anomaly of -4.12F to come in at -2.68F which would beat 1981-1982's -2.67F...that looks to be a long shot right now, but plausible. The -2.91F winter anomalies of 1984-1985/2009-2010 and -2.89 anomaly of 1983-1984 look to be out of reach.

 

A February anomaly of -3.22F is needed to come in colder than 2000-2001 which is still a distinct possibility.

Great data. It will be interesting to see where this winter ranks both since 2000 and also since 1980 once the NCDC data is released next month.

[Ginx snewx]

Impressive cold no doubt and the 16 day anamolies are shown well by GEFS, no poo pooing this.

[Jonger]

I agree with you on the potential with such low departures coming in for the rest of the month. It would be interesting to

get some news from just across the border in Canada which is where the coldest departures have been located. Those

regions must also be having one of their coldest winters, but there hasn't been much news on records there.

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My brother inlaw is from Winnipeg and the word is that it's breaking many all time records. Locals are miserable.