Alpha5 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 wonder what dt will say The GFS blows and is overphasing everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I wonder how many people are going to panic over the 18z GFS @ 132hours? 850 low position is a killer on this run the euro was further south... nuff said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Would be nasty ice storm for Shanendoah Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 wonder what dt will say Cliche city....lol....waiting for "throw it out" these model threads have been a little too lax lately.. these comments are pointless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 I can't see this verifying this west, especially considering what DT and other mets have been saying regarding the storm taking such a west track. This track though provides a really nice middle ground between it and the other models. If you take the middle between this and the Euro everyone is golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 What factors in this run caused the weird low movement? Is this a one time solution or the start of a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS only model this wound up. I wouldn't worry about it yet. Agreed. Good to see the Euro a little further off the coast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the consistency of the GFS over the previous 9 runs almost made this storm look like it was going to be easy I guess we should have known otherwise like several of the mets have said, this is a mod NINA and its hard to get a great storm on the east coast in one we're just gonna' have to wait on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs at 150 I'd say classic case of the GFS overamplifying the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 quite honestly this is the kind of situation where we may not want a phase. Rather, a strong low bowling west to east. We get any kind of phase west of the apps and it could be ugly for many of us, yes even the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 quite honestly this is the kind of situation where we may not want a phase. Rather, a strong low bowling west to east. We get any kind of phase west of the apps and it could be ugly for many of us, yes even the OV. absolutely those bowling balls are often good for 3-6", and in a mod NINA, that's really all we should expect 90% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GFS blows and is overphasing everything REALLY folks there is REASON why I avoid the GFS with its extreme super BOMB crap this far out what you can not do is have snow sex fantasy over the GFS for the last 8 or 10 rusn and Love the GFS then the 18z comes along and say well the GFS isnt right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 considering the placement of the ridge, is this even possible/? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the 18z GFS for RIC is a fooking nightmare looking at the 132 to 144 hr RH fields and 850 temps ric would get a smal periof od snow then rain then DRY slot and its over all the precup would break/ develop well N and W of RIC the 18z GFS says it would be snowing in CHO and DCA before it ever reached ric but like I said I dont have any love for the GFDS past 72 / 84 hrs and I never will... not with east coast snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Major event for Upstate NY and western PA on this run. It actually doesn't seem to get that warm in eastern areas, and the low sticks around for a while. the 18z GFS has as Much chanceof being right as the giants beating the eagles in todays game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 considering the placement of the ridge, is this even possible/? The ridge axis seems to be too far east for a storm track as west as the GFS has it. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS would still be good for a few inches of snow for DC-PHIL corridor Xmas eve into pre-dawn Xmas day. Then changeover and dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 not to toot my own horn but this is exactly what I was cautioning against in the 12Z thread. the energy looks much more consolidated this run and in typical GFS too much emphasis on front runner fashion. normal correction would be weaker out front and slightly slower with more of a neutrally tilted trough (as opposed to negative) at this time, with the second shortwave being slightly deeper. I have a feeling this will hug the coast and could cause some anxious moments for I-95. I do not yet see the explosive cyclogenesis the GFS is seeing tho, mainly because it has almost no support from any other model. Compromise the 12Z and 18Z positions I think is a fair track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS would still be good for a few inches of snow for DC-PHIL corridor Xmas eve into pre-dawn Xmas day. Then changeover and dryslot. The dryslot would be good as it would limit the amount of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 some of us in NE dont think it is a killer Looks pretty good here too Only...well....20 runs to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 suspense has just started. 5 days to go and mucho model runs to go. Maybe vinylfreak is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the 18z GFS has as Much chanceof being right as the giants beating the eagles in todays game Post of the day! DT FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Ensemble mean is MUCH further south and east and looks like previous runs and the ECMWF, so you can pretty much throw the 18z GFS out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Post of the day! DT FTW! priceless !!!Have to laugh at that statement!!! Its perfect/ !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just wondering if this is actually realistic to expect the 500 to close off this rapidly in 12 hours from such a broad trough. Any met's care to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z GEFS is southeast of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 156 on the 18z GFS mean. Nothing like the op run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z GEFS is southeast of the benchmark RED FLAG!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just wondering if this is actually realistic to expect the 500 to close off this rapidly in 12 hours from such a broad trough. Any met's care to chime in? Not a met but it looks realistic and very possible to me. You have 2 major vorts ready to phase while the epic Central Canada block essentially joins with the +PNA to cause a massive ridge out West helping to dig the trof / phase farther West. Is it right? Likely not, the GFS is often extreme, especially at off runs, but the PNA ridge is certainly real. That had been a big question going into this. Maybe too much of a good thing this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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