Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM continues to show a great hit for the NNE with this most recent storm, with a very nice Norlun tough setup. This is the only model that I am aware of though that has shown this much precep for the area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 For what it's worth (not much), the NAM 84hr is much deeper with the Xmas storm shortwave (and slower) and pumping the ridge much more out ahead of it over the western Plains vs the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 so would that bring the low more south like the ukie or more north like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 For what it's worth (not much), the NAM 84hr is much deeper with the Xmas storm shortwave (and slower) and pumping the ridge much more out ahead of it over the western Plains vs the GFS. i saw that, i just dont know how reliable the NAM is 84 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 i saw that, i just dont know how reliable the NAM is 84 hrs out After 48 hours, generally the NAM isnt all that reliable....But Not discounting what it would show, it would just be another thing that adds agreement to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowlover Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18Z GFS going north..way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z dgex at 156 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 and dgex at 162... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 <br />Not so sure. Confluence in the NE is stronger. Surface features are further north, but may not end up that way.<br /> Going to be too far north for you and me however, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowlover Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Going to be too far north for you and me however, I think. looks north to me, but maybe I'm missing something..could be an inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Going to be too far north for you and me however, I think. Agree. All other models are south and 18z goes north. Here goes our consensus models. Let the teeth grinding begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 not many cities staying all snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 first west then a inland runner hope this isnt a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Based on this kind of storm track, this is what I thought the model SHOULD look like. However, I don't think the GFS's storm track is correct. However, for 6 hours this sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 this run looks totally fooked.. no way goes from northen kentucky to va nc boarder dont think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I wonder how many people are going to panic over the 18z GFS @ 132hours? 850 low position is a killer on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 <br />and why would you guys be paying attention to the 18zgfs blows my mind<br /> It has no better or worse verification stats than any other run of the GFS... This run sucks for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 its try to form on the east coast, I think. Just like hpc forecast progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS only model this wound up. I wouldn't worry about it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowlover Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I wonder how many people are going to panic over the 18z GFS @ 132hours? 850 low position is a killer on this run some of us in NE dont think it is a killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 and why would you guys be paying attention to the 18zgfs blows my mind Because its a weather model? Anyway, more upstream ridging out ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 this run looks totally fooked.. no way goes from northen kentucky to va nc boarder dont think so Actually if u look at previous model runs o GFS a lot of them show a ESE jump, maybe not to this extent, but because of confluence they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I wonder how many people are going to panic over the 18z GFS @ 132hours? 850 low position is a killer on this run yea way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 im hoping it goes back to the coast at 00z, or it could be a north western trend we dont want The GFS was already the western outliner to begin with, the 18z just takes it to an extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Major event for Upstate NY and western PA on this run. It actually doesn't seem to get that warm in eastern areas, and the low sticks around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This is just a weird run to me. The ESE hop is quite drastic and then the storm takes off on a due north run leaving the I95 corridor with coal in their stockings to keep them warm in the cold rain on their doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It looks like it puts the brakes on right over camden NJ for the 25th and 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The model has the storm and that 's what is important this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 some of us in NE dont think it is a killer If it cuts west like this, its not good for CT either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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