March Forecast Discussion

[JC-CT]

Foiled again!

I hate facts.

[Doorman]

latest WPC 500mb

DAY 7

highlighted for clarity

 

I guess Schichtel thinks the Jamaica High is a good one ,,,,,,,,

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr500.shtml

 

 

 

 

 

 

[REDMK6GLI]

The Euro ensemble mean is going with the March snow potential over the MA region

as the trough looks pretty broad so it goes neg tilt too late. It would be something if we

had a March with three suppressed snow events on the EC. So nobody would be surprised

if the late seasonal pattern continued.

MSLP_North32America_168.gif

Its amazing that we're seeing this kind of suppression this late in march, this is very unmarch like as far as your typical march pattern goes chris

[bluewave]

Its amazing that we're seeing this kind of suppression this late in march, this is very unmarch like as far as your typical march pattern goes chris

 

It's certainly a very anomalous pattern for March. The trough going negative tilt faster and being situated a little

further west would be better than what the 0z runs had.

 

[REDMK6GLI]

It's certainly a very anomalous pattern for March. The trough going negative tilt faster and being situated a little

further west would be better than what the 0z runs had.

f168.gif

For all intents and purposes we are really in more of a february pattern that is just extended deep into march. Guess the only sign that we are in march that shows is when the cold air relaxes temporarily the temps are warmer than what we'd see during a warm up in february compared to average

[Doorman]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014

VALID 12Z SAT MAR 22 2014 - 12Z WED MAR 26 2014

...AN INTERESTING LATE COLD SEASON WEATHER PATTERN...

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS...

ALASKAN RIDGING AS PART OF A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK OVER THE NE PAC
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK LEADS TO INCREASED FORECAST SPREAD
WITH A DOWNSTREAM WRN US RIDGE AND ERN NOAM MEAN TROUGH COUPLET.
THE 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER A LESS PROGRESSIVE/MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAN THE 12 UTC GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT
WITH THE 18 UTC GFS/GEFS TRENDING LESS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS/GEFS
TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH AMPLIFIED FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF CAN BE
OVER-AMPLIFIED AT TIMES. HOWEVER...GIVEN UPSTREAM BLOCKING PREFER
A SOLUTION ON THE LESS PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS.

ACCORDINGLY...WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB
PROGS ALONG WITH OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN DERIVED
PRIMARILY FROM THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
ONLY LIMITED INPUT FROM THE 18 UTC GEFS MEAN WAS USED AMID GROWING
UNCERTAINTY. THIS BLEND KEEPS REASONABLY GOOD WPC CONTINUITY EVEN
THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE HAS LATELY BEEN OFFERING LESS THAN STELLAR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BY DAYS 5-7.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE NEXT COLD SURGE TO AFFECT THE CNTRL-ERN STATES WILL INITIALLY
BE LED BY THE SURFACE LOW REACHING THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST. A BAND OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE N OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WHILE RAINFALL OF VARYING
INTENSITY MAY FALL ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT. UPSTREAM WAVE
TRACKING INTO SWRN CANADA WILL BRUSH THE VERY NRN PARTS OF THE
WEST WITH LIGHT PRECIP EARLY AND THEN ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND E-SE
WITH TIME OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN US. AT THE VERY LEAST
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF SOME WINTRY
PCPN FOR LATE MARCH...GIVEN COLD SECTOR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF
10-25F BELOW NORMAL. AT THE VERY MOST THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SRN/NRN STREAM INTERACTION TO FORM A LATE SEASON MIDWEST TO ERN US
WINTER STORM DAYS TUE/WED.
UPSTREAM ON THE OTHER HAND...RELATIVELY HIGH HGTS ALOFT OVER THE
WEST WILL SUPPORT WARM TEMPS OF AT LEAST 5-15 F ABOVE NORMAL.
MSTR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LURKING OVER THE ERN PAC SHOULD BEGIN TO
BRING ORGANIZED PCPN BACK INTO THE CNTRL/NRN WEST COAST TUE THAT
WORKS SLOWLY INLAND MIDWEEK.

SCHICHTEL

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

[bluewave]

For all intents and purposes we are really in more of a february pattern that is just extended deep into march. Guess the only sign that we are in march that shows is when the cold air relaxes temporarily the temps are warmer than what we'd see during a warm up in february compared to average

 

Yeah, the Jan-Mar pattern featured an even stronger PV anomaly over NOAM than we saw back in 1994. 

The pattern was so powerful that it flipped the -PDO/+AMO to +PDO/-AMO.

 

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

The NAO has essentially been in positive territory since early January, that's a pretty impressive stretch.

 

[bluewave]

The NAO has essentially been in positive territory since early January, that's a pretty impressive stretch.

 

 

It shifted positive after that record breaking blocking event last March with only a single negative month in the mix.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[Heisy]

Really frustrating with the NAO, for example this potential storm upcoming would benefit so much with even a small block. Ugh 

[IsentropicLift]

The latest ensemble guidance continues to hint at the polar vortex being the dominant player in this part of the globe. The Euro is hinting at the possibility of cross polar flow from Siberia while the GFS is much further northeast with the vortex. In both cases, lower heights in the NAO region continue and the lack of blocking near the Davis Strait.

 

[Stormlover74]

The gfs looks nice starting the 28th after 5 cold dry days. A nice early spring warmup.

Also remarkable how dry its been. If we manage to get .5" tonight it'll be our first such day in 5 weeks

[Allsnow]

The gfs looks nice starting the 28th after 5 cold dry days. A nice early spring warmup.

Also remarkable how dry its been. If we manage to get .5" tonight it'll be our first such day in 5 weeks

Yep! I more interested now in the warm-up. Those temps look nice

[Stormlover74]

Yep! I more interested now in the warm-up. Those temps look nice

Yeah even though the next run will probably flip to cold again with a teaser snowstorm

[jm1220]

Really frustrating with the NAO, for example this potential storm upcoming would benefit so much with even a small block. Ugh 

It'll be easy for the trough to be progressive with the +NAO, it was bound to come and bite us at some point.

[Allsnow]

Yeah even though the next run will probably flip to cold again with a teaser snowstorm

It's getting kind of annoying at this point. Want to start landscaping and outdoor activities I have planned. Guess this is pay back for all the nice Marches we have had. Last year was no gem either during March and April. I believe Duluth had 51 inches of snow in April 2013 lol

[REDMK6GLI]

It's getting kind of annoying at this point. Want to start landscaping and outdoor activities I have planned. Guess this is pay back for all the nice Marches we have had. Last year was no gem either during March and April. I believe Duluth had 51 inches of snow in April 2013 lol

When march gets here i want it to start warming up, this cold has more than worn out its welcome.

Next week progression may very well screw the pooch with this storm as well. Not having any sort of transient blocking in the davis straight region and the PNA expected to maybe spike to neutral it doesnt exactly give me a warm fuzzy feeling for a snowstorm possibility next week

[bluewave]

It's getting kind of annoying at this point. Want to start landscaping and outdoor activities I have planned. Guess this is pay back for all the nice Marches we have had. Last year was no gem either during March and April. I believe Duluth had 51 inches of snow in April 2013 lol

 

The swing between this March and 2012 was as extreme as you are going to get.

 

2014

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

845 AM EST MON MAR 03 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT FLINT MI...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -16 DEGREES WAS SET AT FLINT MI TODAY.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -11 SET IN 2003. THIS ALSO SMASHES

THE ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORD LOW BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF -12

DEGREES SET IN 1978.

 

 

2012

 

All-Time Highs for March Broken

 

Flint 86 degrees on 3/21/2012

[Stormlover74]

It's getting kind of annoying at this point. Want to start landscaping and outdoor activities I have planned. Guess this is pay back for all the nice Marches we have had. Last year was no gem either during March and April. I believe Duluth had 51 inches of snow in April 2013 lol

I know. And just like that it started sleeting

[cut]

Hmm, out of curiosity I just checked accuwx almanac and see we only have recieved .34 inches of precip in March in Trumbull CT.  It looks like what ever happens on Monday may put some more in the bucket, but I had no idea we are so far below for March.

[Stormlover74]

Hmm, out of curiosity I just checked accuwx almanac and see we only have recieved .34 inches of precip in March in Trumbull CT. It looks like what ever happens on Monday may put some more in the bucket, but I had no idea we are so far below for March.

Monday? You mean tonight?

[cut]

Monday? You mean tonight?

Ahh, that is right.  It is supposed to rain tonight, and then Monday/Tuesday maybe - although looking more doubtful (shocker) as we get closer.  Still, being 3+ inches below we should end March with a deficit.

[Stormlover74]

Ahh, that is right. It is supposed to rain tonight, and then Monday/Tuesday maybe - although looking more doubtful (shocker) as we get closer. Still, being 3+ inches below we should end March with a deficit.

If anything it would mid week but too far away and models don't look promising. We should get around a half inch this evening and then dry out for a bit

[NEG NAO]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1158 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014


VALID 12Z SAT MAR 22 2014 - 12Z WED MAR 26 2014


...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...


MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ABOVE AVERAGE

CONFIDENCE IN AN AMPLIFIED ERN NOAM TROUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM AN ERN

PAC/ALASKA REX BLOCK AND RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WRN CONUS/CANADA.

 HOWEVER IMPORTANT DETAILS WITHIN THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE

EVOLUTION APPEAR FAIRLY SENSITIVE AND WILL REQUIRE TIME TO BE

RESOLVED.  THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FEATURES OF INTEREST

THROUGH DAY 4 SUN... FAVORING A BLEND OF 06Z GFS-GEFS MEAN/00Z

ECMWF-ECMWF MEAN SOLNS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE OPERATIONAL RUNS.

 THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUES BY DAYS 5-7 MON-WED INVOLVE TIMING OF

THE ERN PAC TROUGH ALOFT HEADING TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND

EVOLUTION OF ERN CONUS TROUGH ENERGY WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE

STRENGTH/TRACK OF PSBL WRN ATLC SFC LOW PRESSURE.  CONSIDERATION

OF TYPICAL MODEL BIASES AND THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD FOR THE ERN

PAC TROUGH RECOMMEND A SOLN CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN THAT IS

ABOUT 2/3 TOWARD THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.  A SLIGHTLY

STRONGER VERSION OF THE ECMWF MEAN IS LIKEWISE FAVORED NEAR THE

EAST COAST BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD.



...GUIDANCE EVALUATION...


SPREAD WITH THE ERN PAC TROUGH/EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW BECOMES

INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE AFTER DAY 4 SUN... WITH 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS

AND GEFS ENSEMBLES RUNNING AHEAD OF THE ECMWF AND GENERALLY A

MAJORITY OF 00Z ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLES.  THE 00Z ECMWF IS ACTUALLY

SLOWER THAN SOME PREVIOUS RUNS AND IN THE SLOWER PART OF THE

ENSEMBLE SPREAD BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF BEING EXTREME.  TENDENCY

FOR GFS/GEFS GUIDANCE TO BE TOO EAGER TO BREAK DOWN BLOCKING TYPE

PATTERNS RECOMMENDS SLOWER TIMING.  UPSTREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE

PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME AND THE 00Z CMC MEAN BECOMES A LITTLE FASTER

THAN THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD... SO FOR NOW

PREFER A SOLN CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF MEAN RATHER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.


WITH RESPECT TO ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ERN TROUGH ALOFT...

IMPORTANT DETAILS WILL HINGE ON BOTH THE TIMING OF ERN PAC/WRN

CONUS EVOLUTION AS WELL AS EXACT HANDLING OF FLOW ON THE E/SE SIDE

OF THE UPR HIGH OVER/NEAR ALASKA.  THIS COMBINED SENSITIVITY AND

TYPICAL GUIDANCE ERROR IN THE DAYS 6-7 TIME FRAME TEMPER

CONFIDENCE IN A SPECIFIC SCENARIO.  OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS THE

HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS HAS BEEN POINTING

TOWARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SERN COAST AS OF EARLY

DAY 6 TUE AND REACHING NEAR OR JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY

EARLY DAY 7 WED... CONTINUING TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES

THEREAFTER.  A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERSION OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN

FITS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE PRIMARY ENSEMBLE CLUSTER AND AS OF

EARLY WED LIES BETWEEN THE NWRN 00Z CMC AND SERN 00Z/06Z GFS.  THE

00Z ECMWF IS QUESTIONABLE FRAGMENTED WITH ITS SFC EVOLUTION.


NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH

SFC LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHEAST.  TRENDS OVER THE PAST DAY

HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE MIDDLE TO NRN HALF OF THE SPREAD. 

CONSULT THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION PMDHMD FOR LATEST INFO

REGARDING DIFFS/PREFS THROUGH 00Z SUN.


COMPOSITE ANALOGS BASED ON D+8 MEAN CHARTS CONTINUE TO BRING UP

COMPARISONS TO OTHER COLD MARCH EVENTS INCL 1993/1984/1974/1960 AS

WELL AS EARLY APRIL 1982... THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DETAILS

OF THE CURRENT FCST AND THOSE EARLIER YEARS ALL DIFFER IN VARYING

WAYS.



...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...


OVER THE WEST... MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE EXTREME NORTH

SHOULD SEE TEMPS 5-15F ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.  EXPECT DRY

CONDS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PACIFIC MSTR

LIKELY REACHING THE WEST COAST AND FILTERING INLAND TO SOME DEGREE

BY TUE-WED.  CURRENT PREFERENCE FOR 00Z ECMWF MEAN TIMING OF THE

UPR TROUGH WOULD LEAD TO SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF MSTR/COOLING

RELATIVE TO GFS/GEFS MEAN SOLNS.


FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EAST ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH BROAD

COVERAGE OF TEMPS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL WITH LOCALLY GREATER

ANOMALIES PSBL.  SUCH DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT

MORE EXPANSIVE FOR MAX TEMPS VERSUS LOW TEMPS GIVEN WINDS AND SOME

CLOUDS/MSTR AWAY FROM TWO COLD SFC HIGHS DROPPING SWD FROM

CANADA... ONE DURING THE WEEKEND AND A SECOND AROUND TUE.  LOW

PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND ON SAT SHOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW

JUST N OF ITS TRACK WITH RELATIVELY LGT RNFL EXPECTED ALONG THE

TRAILING COLD FRONT.  ONE OR MORE UPSTREAM SHRTWVS MAY SUPPORT

POCKETS OF SNOW WHERE AIR IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD WHILE MSTR/IMPULSES

EMBEDDED IN SRN STREAM FLOW MAY GENERATE AREAS OF RNFL OVER THE

EXTREME SOUTH.  DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD THERE REMAINS

POTENTIAL FOR UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF SOME WINTRY PCPN

FOR LATE MARCH.  BEST CONSENSUS FOR WRN ATLC SFC DEVELOPMENT NEXT

TUE-WED WOULD GIVE THE NORTHEAST THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR

MEANINGFUL SNOW/WIND BUT THE RANGE OF POTENTIAL SOLNS THAT WOULD

STILL FIT WITHIN THE EXPECTED MEAN PATTERN STILL MAINTAINS A LOWER

THREAT OVER AREAS FARTHER S/W.


RAUSCH

[IsentropicLift]

That system for Sunday needs to be watched, 18z GFS gets measurable precip almost up to Philly and the south shore.

[SnoSki14]

It does look intriguing, very similar to events we saw this winter that trended better as we got closer.

[Doorman]

OPC Vis  Upstream Block

https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/photos/a.180411835350889.44604.175404839184922/661230823935652/?type=1

 

 

PAC WV Loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=goes-west_16km_psir3

 

West Coast Ridge...  will build up steadily

 

 

 

WPC Day 6

500mb

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/d6500wbg.gif

 

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2014031912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

 

Hang In an Hold On!!!

[uncle W]

KNYC  needs 0.41" to prevent this March from being the driest on record...I checked Accwx long range April forecast for the park and they don't have one day above 66 for a max temp...That would set a record for the lowest max for any April...That's not happening but it shows how the models are delaying Spring...the storm next week could be another DC crusher and p'cldy around here...TWT...

[Stormlover74]

KNYC needs 0.41" to prevent this March from being the driest on record...I checked Accwx long range April forecast for the park and they don't have one day above 66 for a max temp...That would set a record for the lowest max for any April...That's not happening but it shows how the models are delaying Spring...the storm next week could be another DC crusher and p'cldy around here...TWT...

Is that including tonight's 0.53"?

[uncle W]

Is that including tonight's 0.53"?

if we got 0.53" already then its above the 0.80" in 2006...we went into today with 0.40"...