Capt. Adam Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Maybe time for subtitle for the thread so people know what is currently being discussed...guessing the 3/24-27 timeframe is on some folks minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Maybe time for subtitle for the thread so people know what is currently being discussed...guessing the 3/24-27 timeframe is on some folks minds. The will almost assure of it being suppressed south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Somebody should keep an archive of 1 week, 3 days, and 1 day model forecasts for big potential events. And then the actual verified storm track/intensity. It'll be interesting to see how far off the SLP is from 964 mb approaching R.I. next Wednesday as per the 18/12z ECMWF. It'll serve to illustrate how whacky some of these operational models can be sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 If the models are correct with the ULL in the Northeast Pac and resulting west coast ridge spike, I think we're looking at a pretty sizable threat for a significant east coast storm next week. Whether or not it amplifies in time to bring us significant precipitation/effects will depend on the details and exact evolution of the individual disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 If the models are correct with the ULL in the Northeast Pac and resulting west coast ridge spike, I think we're looking at a pretty sizable threat for a significant east coast storm next week. Whether or not it amplifies in time to bring us significant precipitation/effects will depend on the details and exact evolution of the individual disturbances. The Euro ensemble mean is about as good a signal for a storm for at least some portion of the East Coast that you are going to get at day 8. If it comes out suppressed again, then just the MA will see another anomalous late season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean is about as good a signal for a storm for at least some portion of the East Coast that you are going to get at day 8. The WSI graphics have a sub 1000mb low near the 40/70 benchmark. It has been awhile since I have seen a signal like that at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GFS @ 180 has a really potent wave swinging through the Lakes. Lets see if it it'll spin up a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 The WSI graphics have a sub 1000mb low near the 40/70 benchmark. It has been awhile since I have seen a signal like that at this range. currently and I emphasize currently this looks like one of the best day 8 threats this season and im not going to talk p-types either. most models are indicating some type of cyclogenesis on the EC next week so that is a GREAT start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Nice trough to allow this storm to dig! Hopefully it doesn't change the last minute like 3/3 and 3-17. I'd rather see a rain storm or a miss 5 days ahead and not tease us cause this month was hard on the weenies including myself. It kept me going and I was almost ready to give up but next weeks threat looks like a fun storm to track since it probably will be the last winter storm of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GFS @ 180 has a really potent wave swinging through the Lakes. Lets see if it it'll spin up a coastal. You get the sense of the potential despite looking at a 180 hr GFS panel. The mid level energy is extremely energetic and poised to close off over the Mid Atlantic at 186hours. Despite being a bit sloppy, this isn't just fantasy. Most global models are throwing up red flags for a potential significant system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Nice trough to allow this storm to dig! Hopefully it doesn't change the last minute like 3/3 and 3-17. I'd rather see a rain storm or a miss 5 days ahead and not tease us cause this month was hard on the weenies including myself. It kept me going and I was almost ready to give up but next weeks threat looks like a fun storm to track since it probably will be the last winter storm of this winter this pattern with the influence the PV has on the NE in SE Canada more resembles a February not a march pattern where there will be more wrapped up and westerly storm tracks over more coastal tracks. suppression would also be a threat with this of course like the past two storms but at this point the only thing we can seriously look at till the weekend is the pattern setting this potential storm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I wish the GFS run didn't truncate at 192, it would have blown the hell up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We have a storm to track on March 18th, a storm which the EURO has blowing up to 954mb....Could you ask for anything else as a weather weenie at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 So what's the main focal point, is it the stuff off the SE coast or the storm swinging through the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We have a storm to track on March 18th, a storm which the EURO has blowing up to 954mb....Could you ask for anything else as a weather weenie at this range? It's a weather weenies dream let me tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 So what's the main focal point, is it the stuff off the SE coast or the storm swinging through the lakes? I don't think that is a known yet. GFS kind of kicks that southern energy out to sea and then sets up a new baroclinic zone with the energy diving from the Lakes... Earthlight, question...Does the change in season with regards to wave lengths play a role in this storm? I wish I could explain myself with "meteorological words" better, but could the time of year actually help slow down a wave diving down from the Lakes, so that it could close off even without a block etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I don't think that is a known yet. GFS kind of kicks that southern energy out to sea and then sets up a new baroclinic zone with the energy diving from the Lakes... Earthlight, question...Does the change in season with regards to wave lengths play a role in this storm? I wish I could explain myself with "meteorological words" better, but could the time of year actually help slow down a wave diving down from the Lakes, so that it could close off even without a block etc? Perhaps it's a combination of the two that need to phase to produce a huge storm. That sounds like a cut off type low scenario which are very common around this time of year but it's not like the lows are cut off from the jetstream at this point. Would like to know the answer to this too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 this pattern with the influence the PV has on the NE in SE Canada more resembles a February not a march pattern where there will be more wrapped up and westerly storm tracks over more coastal tracks. suppression would also be a threat with this of course like the past two storms but at this point the only thing we can seriously look at till the weekend is the pattern setting this potential storm up I just really hope this doesn't become a rainstorm or a suppressed storm cause I'll be so pissed. All my life I wait for big snowstorms like the one projected to hit us and bang we miss it somehow x I refuse to believe this will miss us. I hope this will be a triple phaser that moves slow and drops at least a foot of snow. Still wouldn't be 96 but at least we'll go out with a bang! I know this should go on a banter but you can delete if you want, I had a dream a few days ago about the GFS model showing a triple phaser that dropped massive amounts of snow from DC to Boston! God I hope it happens! Us weenies need it! Just like California needs the rain which I'm sure they'll get in spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 this pattern with the influence the PV has on the NE in SE Canada more resembles a February not a march pattern where there will be more wrapped up and westerly storm tracks over more coastal tracks. suppression would also be a threat with this of course like the past two storms but at this point the only thing we can seriously look at till the weekend is the pattern setting this potential storm up I just really hope this doesn't become a rainstorm or a suppressed storm cause I'll be so pissed. All my life I wait for big snowstorms like the one projected to hit us and bang we miss it somehow x I refuse to believe this will miss us. I hope this will be a triple phaser that moves slow and drops at least a foot of snow. Still wouldn't be 96 but at least we'll go out with a bang! I know this should go on a banter but you can delete if you want, I had a dream a few days ago about the GFS model showing a triple phaser that dropped massive amounts of snow from DC to Boston! God I hope it happens! Us weenies need it! Just like California needs the rain which I'm sure they'll get in spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 If the GFS didn't truncate at 192 it would have shown one sick storm, look at the VVs just EXPLODING, these are insane for a global model like the GFS. screen capture freeware screen shot in windows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We have a storm to track on March 18th, a storm which the EURO has blowing up to 954mb....Could you ask for anything else as a weather weenie at this range? yeah, I could have asked that this came back in January not the end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The WSI graphics have a sub 1000mb low near the 40/70 benchmark. It has been awhile since I have seen a signal like that at this range. I think the ensembles are picking up on the stronger ridge out west than yesterday with a deeper low scenario somewhere along the EC rather than a strung out system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The 0z Euro ensemble mean was opening the cut off and moving into West coast faster. Need more consistency with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO D+8 NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES CNTRD OVERNEW ENGLAND/SERN CANADA SUPPORT A VERY COLD PERIOD OVER THE ERNSTATES. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RANKING CORRELATIONS FROMCOMPOSITE ANALOGS FOR SOME D+8 MEANS INCLUDE MULTIPLE YEARSNOTABLE FOR MARCH COLD EVENTS/PERIODS IN THE EAST INCL THE YEARSOF 1993/1984/1974/1960. Guest View http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/m7_zpsff95e88d.gif http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr500.shtml http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/allmaps_f192_us.html How much more credence could be given to a report backed up by ' visual evidence ' ? http://youtu.be/Q1809vqz3zA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Number of 6.0"+ snowstorms in Central Park post March 25th since 1870: Two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Number of 6.0"+ snowstorms in Central Park post March 25th since 1870: Two NYC has actually had 7 such snowstorms: 4/12-14/1875: 10.0" 4/3-4/1915: 10.2" 4/8-9/1917: 6.5" 4/1/1924: 8.5" 4/6-7/1938: 6.4" 4/5/1944: 6.5" 4/6/1982: 9.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Don what are your thoughts on this possible storm next week. I read your forecast prediction for the upcoming cold snap and you did mention the potential for a big storm, anything else to add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 NYC has actually had 7 such snowstorms: Foiled again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Don what are your thoughts on this possible storm next week. I read your forecast prediction for the upcoming cold snap and you did mention the potential for a big storm, anything else to add. anybody who thinks they have any idea what may or may not happen with this especially after what has happened this month and the crappy performance of various models at this range is fooling you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=hemi-wv-24 the pac is moving some air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.