March Forecast Discussion

[SnoSki14]

Event looks to have more legs than mondays what looks to be light event now in tri state area especially north

That's impossible to say at this point. Even if a storm happens, chances are we'll see much more rain than frozen. I'm ready for milder weather after all this cold, even seasonable weather would be welcomed. 

[green tube]

Does this late week event have a chance to be a 15-20 inch paste job for NYC and LI area ? 

 

 

i say this is the most friendly way possible: you are a crazy person.

[Momza]

i say this is the most friendly way possible: you are a crazy person.

He has been good………go with him…he is hot!

[Saturn510]

Is there any northern stream interaction to get cold air into the system?

[IsentropicLift]

Is there any northern stream interaction to get cold air into the system?

Not as currently modeled.

[MJO812]

GFS is really stormy and cold throughout the run.

[IsentropicLift]

GFS is really stormy and cold throughout the run.

Yup, another parade of snow storms in the long range. I'm honestly hoping for the pattern to break, tired of the cold at this point and need a break watching the models for awhile.

[Thunder7842]

Yup, another parade of snow storms in the long range. I'm honestly hoping for the pattern to break, tired of the cold at this point and need a break watching the models for awhile.

A few weeks from now, you'll get a break that will last for about 8 months. So i'm sure you can hang in there and watch snow threats on models for the next couple weeks.

[Morris]

Not so fast. Soon come the hurricanes...

[IsentropicLift]

What a beast of a storm down south for the end of the week, too bad we really don't have any northern stream phasing.

[IsentropicLift]

Nasty ice storm hour 126 for NW North Carolina. Snow extreme southern VA.

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 132 light snow up to Richmond.

[IsentropicLift]

It cuts off over the southeast at hour 138. Really don't think it will end up as modeled.

[MJO812]

GGEM for late next week

 

[snow1]

Maybe we need another thread for this

[REDMK6GLI]

Maybe we need another thread for this

Not just yet. Last time i started one the threat went to dust, POOF!

[uncle W]

March snowstorms since 1956...April also...(Some dates could be a day or two off)

..6.7" 3/16-17/1956

11.6" 3/18-19/1956

..4.2" 4/8/1956

..4.1" 3/13/1958

11.8" 3/20-21/1958

..5.5" 3/13/1959

14.5" 3/3-4/1960

..4.9" 3/21-22/1964

..3.0" 3/17/1967

..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

..2.8" 3/3/1969

..2.8" 3/8/1969

..4.0" 3/29/1970

..3.2" 3/29/1974

..4.2" 3/9/1976

..5.0" 3/3/1978

..4.6" 3/13/1980

..8.6" 3/6/1981

..9.6" 4/6/1982

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

..3.3" 3/28-29/1984

..3.0" 3/6/1990

..6.2" 3/18/1992

..3.2" 3/22/1992

10.6" 3/13/1993

..5.0" 3/2-3/1994

..2.8" 3/18/1994

..4.6" 3/2/1996

..4.5" 3/8/1996

..4.1" 3/29/1996

..5.0" 3/22/1998

..4.5" 3/15/1999

..3.5" 3/5/2001

..3.5" 3/6/2003

..4.0" 4/7/2003

..4.0" 3/16/2004

..5.5" 3/16/2007

..8.3" 3/1-2/2009

..4.0" 3/8/2013

..3.0" 3/18/2013

it's been 21 years since March had a 10" snowfall...One year over 6" during that span...

[MJO812]

Cold and potential stormy pattern on the GFS.

[REDMK6GLI]

bump ladies and gentlemen. we have more to talk about it here other than fantasy land storms that are keeping weenie dreams alive by a hair

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Any word on next weeks threat since the thread was locked

[REDMK6GLI]

Any word on next weeks threat since the thread was locked

nothing as of now. only thing I can tell you is that it is a "threat"

[NEG NAO]

Any word on next weeks threat since the thread was locked

18z GFS is suppression city - next week we might have the opposite problem we had this week - cold enough but little precip if that verifies

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014031018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

[IsentropicLift]

Some of the 12z ECMWF members are off the charts. 20 members showing in excess of 1.5" QPF post day 4.

[SnoSki14]

Which model first showed this weeks storm.

[codfishsnowman]

rip st patty day storm thread pt 1

[NEG NAO]

From WPC :

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 14 2014 - 12Z TUE MAR 18 2014

...OVERVIEW...

UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE SPLIT RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA... ONE PIECE NEAR BANKS ISLAND IN FAR NORTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER NOSING INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A BREAK IN THE
"WALL" AND ALLOWS ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE PAC NW AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES... THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS LARGE. IN
THE EAST... TROUGHING IS STUCK IN PLACE BETWEEN ABOUT 95W-75W AND
WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND THEN PERHAPS A
MORE MENACING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM... BUT AS IS THE CASE IN THE
WEST... ENSEMBLE SPREAD RAPIDLY INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD NEAR THE EAST COAST.


...GUIDANCE EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES...

FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD... FRI/D3 THROUGH SUN/D5... WILL
CARRY THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND DYING SECONDARY BOUNDARY TO
ITS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD PAST THE OH RIVER VALLEY
AND TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE STALLING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE
MOST RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS... GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET... AND THE
GEFS/ECENS MEANS FORMED A GOOD CLUSTER TRACKING THE LOW EASTWARD
BUT THE 18Z GFS WAS DISCOUNTED IN THE SOUTHWEST AS IT WAS QUICKER
THAN THE REST TO BRING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF AZ AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD.

THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS A MESS FROM THE GET-GO... THOUGH MOST OF
THE DISAGREEMENT LIES WELL OFFSHORE AS ENERGY HEADS INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. BY ABOUT SUN/D5 ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH
140W AND LIKELY SPLIT NE-SW... BUT WHERE THAT HAPPENS HAS BEEN AND
CONTINUES TO BE A POINT OF CONTENTION AMONG THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES. GFS/CANADIAN AND MOST GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE SOUTHERN
PORTION PROGRESSIVE AND BRING IT INTO CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHILE THE ECMWF AND MOST EC MEMBERS LEAVE IT BEHIND WEST OF
140W... AND CARRY THE NORTHERN PORTION INTO WASHINGTON STATE. THE
GFS/CANADIAN CAMP SHOWS A WEAKER VERSION OF THAT NORTHERN
ENERGY... AND FARTHER NORTH. NO CLEAR TREND HAS EMERGED AS OF
YET... AND CANNOT RULE OUT MUCH OF ANYTHING THOUGH AM HESITANT TO
BRING A CLOSED LOW INTO CALIFORNIA AS THEY HAVE SEEMINGLY BEEN
REPELLING MOST SYSTEMS THIS WINTER. INSTEAD SHOWED A MODEST
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEST PER A GEFS/ECENS BLEND WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING AHEAD OF DIGGING MID-LEVEL
ENERGY THOUGH THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE BEEN
A BIT DIZZYING. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND IN PARTICULAR THE EC
MEAN.. HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STABLE. THE GEFS MEAN HAS TRENDED BACK
FROM A FARTHER OFFSHORE /WIDE RIGHT/ SOLUTION TO A CLOSER-IN
COASTAL STORM BY MON-TUE/D6-7 LIKE THE EC MEAN HAS BEEN
DEPICTING... BUT THIS IS NOWHERE NEAR CAST IN STONE. BUYER BEWARE.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
EXPECT A RETURN TO MID-WINTER TEMPERATURES NEAR MICHIGAN. PAC NW
WILL SEE SOME PRECIP...MAINLY IN WA... AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES
BY. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED SHOULD THE SECOND SYSTEM
MOVE THROUGH AS PROJECTED. IN THE EAST... WHERE A SUSTAINED WARMUP
ELUDES US... TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO WITH A
COLDER SHOT OF AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT
WEEK... THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD MODEST TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD. TRANSITION TO SNOW IS LIKELY ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD BUT THAT IS DEPENDENT ON DETAILS WHICH
ARE FAR FROM KNOWN. FROPA SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA BY TUE/D7 EAST OF THE SFC HIGH.

MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY DURING THE PERIOD.
EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE S-CNTRL AREAS THAT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LGT PCPN
IN ASSOC WITH AN EJECTING UPR LOW EARLY IN THE FCST... AND THE PAC
NW/NRN ROCKIES WHICH MAY SEE AN AREA OF LGT-MDT PCPN MOVE THROUGH
AROUND FRI-SAT. THE SRN 3/4 OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE ONE OR MORE
DAYS WITH HIGHS OF AT LEAST 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL.

OVER THE EAST THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A VERY WINTRY FEEL ON THU
BEHIND A DEPARTING DEEP SFC LOW... WITH WINDY CONDS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS 15-25F BELOW NORMAL. SOME LINGERING SNOW IS PSBL OVER NEW
ENGLAND. RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DATE THU ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT A RAPID
MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL THEREAFTER. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW
PRESSURE ALONG/N OF THE US-CANADIAN BORDER THU-SAT SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY LGT RNFL AND PERHAPS SNOW EXTREME N.
EXPECT THE PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER CNTRL-ERN AREAS BY
SUN-MON BUT WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN TYPE/COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF PCPN AT ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
PCPN AT THAT TIME EXTENDS FROM THE SRN TIER INTO THE NORTHEAST.


FRACASSO

[IsentropicLift]

A lot of really bit hits for the area post day 6 on the 00z ECMWF individual ensembles.

[NEG NAO]

A lot of really bit hits for the area post day 6 on the 00z ECMWF individual ensembles.

that basically only tells part of the story - individual members by themselves in the means mean very little what does the mean itself show ? Also what percentage of them show big hits ?

[IsentropicLift]

that basically only tells part of the story - individuals by themselves in the means mean very little what does the mean itself show ?

10 day precip is > 1.00". 75% + of that falling post day 5.

 

As far as next week goes, the majority of the cluster is offshore, looks like the OP.

[IsentropicLift]

We'll have that potent northern stream wave crossing the lakes region around day 7 and if that doesn't phase in I can see any long range threats staying well southeast.