REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 FWIW the 00z GGEM was very close to a big hit for the day 8 storm and the 00z GGEM ensemble mean was a really big hit. Assuming there is more cold air and little p-type issues ( i know its 8 days out ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't see the storm after Mondays storm being a snow maker, huge disconnect between northern and southern stream that fails to provide cold air. Looks like a strong niño type system, and it could actually cause a lot of flooding if we see substantial snowfall from the coming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't see the storm after Mondays storm being a snow maker, huge disconnect between northern and southern stream that fails to provide cold air. Looks like a strong niño type system, and it could actually cause a lot of flooding if we see substantial snowfall from the coming storm. Sort of clique but I like this system as a comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't see the storm after Mondays storm being a snow maker, huge disconnect between northern and southern stream that fails to provide cold air. Looks like a strong niño type system, and it could actually cause a lot of flooding if we see substantial snowfall from the coming storm. That's if the northern stream doesn't phase in. If it does, we will get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS = FAIL for next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS = FAIL for next Friday. Shocker the 12z GFS has a brain fart in the 5-7 day range The storm is there on other globals so thus far that is all you can for honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM is really interesting for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM is really interesting for next week it's a major hit if you ignore the nonsense that it shows post hour 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 it's a major hit if you ignore the nonsense that it shows post hour 168. Yea a big snowstorm for PHL-NYC-BOS. Far out but nice to look at though yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 HR 276 12Z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any updates on this potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any updates on this potential? The March 8th thing? I dunno; as long as this poor excuse for a storm on Monday is still upstream, there's not going to be much discussion about the next couple threats. The GFS looks impressive with a big low just far enough offshore to avoid throwing moisture ashore, chiefly owing to the Midwestern trough running up its rear. Hopefully we can get some better spacing between the two disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro is looking really interesting with the late week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Does this late week event have a chance to be a 15-20 inch paste job for NYC and LI area ? Feeling this could be a 32 degree F cement (very wet snow) crusher. Is QPF over 1 inch ? 850's right at zero... isothermal 32 degrees ? Mets please discuss a little.. Can this be the classic March HECS ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Does this late week event have a chance to be a 15-20 inch paste job for NYC and LI area ? Feeling this could be a 32 degree F cement (very wet snow) crusher. Is QPF over 1 inch ? 850's right at zero... isothermal 32 degrees ? Mets please discuss a little.. Can this be the classic March HECS ??? Not modeled . You are goin to have to wait and see what happens once you are inside 4 days. It's too far to even discuss . You can just as easily see 40 degrees and 2 inches of rain as you could a major snowstorm. They don't always have to trend you're way. As of right now its plus 1 with 1.5 inches of liquid and 34. It would be a cold break you're heart soaker. Way to early bud , don't look at OP runs 7 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not modeled . You are goin to have to wait and see what happens once you are inside 4 days. It's too far to even discuss . You can just as easily see 40 degrees and 2 inches of rain as you could a major snowstorm. They don't always have to trend you're way. As of right now its plus 1 with 1.5 inches of liquid and 34. It would be a cold break you're heart soaker. Way to early bud , don't look at OP runs 7 days out . Mikehobbyist always going for those grand slams. This storm has "some"'legs and i use that in the most general legs, talking about rain/ snow and track at this point is futile. Lets come back monday then investigate this threat right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 For those tracking end of next week storm the 12z GFS has it but is S&E so taking its "bias" into account ill take that. Want to see what the 12z EURO and especially its ensemble members have to say about this threat at 1 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nonstop strong troughs diving in past mid March and no end in sight. Could be a while before we see a prolonged string of warmer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nonstop strong troughs diving in past mid March and no end in sight. Could be a while before we see a prolonged string of warmer weather. How the cold air supply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM If two major storms miss us to the south in march I'm going to pissed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The GGEM has a big snowstorm next week for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 12Z EURO OP has the storm, slow mover albeit it is warm. 7 days off so lots will change still..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12Z EURO OP has the storm, slow mover albeit it is warm. 7 days off so lots will change still..... Any further details on this event? how warm is warm any for where exactly. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any further details on this event? how warm is warm any for where exactly. Best Warm for I-95 DC-BOS looks like but SV map really isnt worth looking into at this point just looking for the storm on the maps in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any further details on this event? how warm is warm any for where exactly. Right now plus 2 at 850 and a 40 Degree surface with about 1.5 inches of liquid . 5- 7 Degrees warmer at the surface than at 0z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Amazing that January was -4.0F at Central Park, February was -3.7F, and now we're staring down the face of one of the coldest stretches of early March weather in recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Temp departures here for Dec-Feb were:+0.1, -5.3 and -4.5 which makes it the 5th coldest winter in 37 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 EURO ens are way colder for the late week event. Winter is far from over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 EURO ens are way colder for the late week event. Winter is far from over Event looks to have more legs than mondays what looks to be light event now in tri state area especially north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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