REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Looks like march may continue the theme of the cold being below average for much of the east, JMA looks to continue the cold in march all the way through almost. First week may also feature more snowstorm threats with the PV providing a cold air source and maybe suppression? Only time will tell, discuss here folks and heres to having winter go out with a bang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 12z euro has -20 850's down to North Carolina on the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 12z euro has -20 850's down to North Carolina on the 2nd. YUP! Lets hope this thread doesnt start an allout assault on allsnow like the febraury discussion thread has done This month i think we may have a shot of getting something truly LARGE on the EC. We have alot of ingredients currently progged to come together and in my eyes not a matter of if but when we get that big one the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 12z EURO for those concerned with the 3/1 threat attempted to split the PV for the weekend system. this would help but were still a ways out and things will change, something to keep an eye on however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 At least we have lots of time with this system to trend in our favor. Will the EURO ever bring back the extreme scenario a few days back? We'll see, but if the models do in fact split the PV that'll be a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 End of the week storm for next week a ways off has pretty much vanished. The march 3-4 storm looks poised to deliver a good amount of snow for tri-state area. Still lots of work to do to determine the p types in our area and the areas where heaviest snows could fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 End of the week storm for next week a ways off has pretty much vanished. The march 3-4 storm looks poised to deliver a good amount of snow for tri-state area. Still lots of work to do to determine the p types in our area and the areas where heaviest snows could fall Huh? The 00z EURO showed a big MECS for the mid-atlantic for the end of the week storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Huh? The 00z EURO showed a big MECS for the mid-atlantic for the end of the week storm... Stand corrected i over looked that. Does look pretty good and we'll see next week if this threat does indeed have legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 March weather records for KNYC... March decade averages...decade....temp...high...low...max...min...ave max ave min...precip...snow...B.S.1870's.....37.0....44.1...30.5....na.....3........na.......na.......4.13"....4.2"....6.0"1880's.....35.4....40.4...30.0....72.....5.....60.1.....12.8.....3.32"....5.9"..21.0"1890's.....37.6....45.6...32.6....71.....7.....61.2.....16.1.....3.60"....8.2"..12.0"1900's.....39.8....47.8...33.4....74.....7.....64.8.....15.5.....3.92"....5.2"....6.5"1910's.....39.1....44.8...32.4....78.....7.....68.9.....16.7.....4.03"....7.9"..14.5"1920's.....41.2....48.4...35.7....84...10.....72.6.....16.2.....3.45"....2.8"....7.3"1930's.....40.2....45.2...36.5....77.....9.....67.2.....17.0.....4.13"....3.0"....5.6"1940's.....41.6....51.1...35.1....86.....7.....70.1.....18.7.....3.63"....5.2"..18.1"1950's.....40.5....43.4...36.4....71...11.....65.9.....20.6.....4.21"....6.2"..11.8"1960's.....40.8....43.7...33.3....79.....8.....72.2.....17.9.....3.43"....6.1"..14.5"1970's.....42.4....46.9...38.7....81...14.....69.2.....20.6.....4.27"....2.3"....5.0"1980's.....42.8....45.8...36.7....82...13.....71.6.....16.9.....4.95"....3.0"....8.6"1990's.....42.4....45.4...38.9....86...11.....72.8.....18.0.....4.52"....5.7"..10.6"2000's.....42.7....47.2...39.4....78...11.....68.5.....18.8.....3.90"....3.5"....8.3" 2010's.....45.4....50.9...40.1....78...20.....72.0.....25.3.....5.19"....2.1"....4.0" as of March 2013...1870-2009 ......40.3....45.7...35.0....78.....9.....68.1.....17.4.....3.96"....4.9"..10.7"1980-2009.......42.6....46.1...38.3....82...12.....71.0.....17.9.....4.46"....4.1"....9.2".......................................................................................................................March extremes...warmest.......coldest.........wettest.........driest.........snowiest...least snowiest51.1 1945...30.0 1888...10.69" 2010...0.80" 2006...30.5" 1896.....0 187850.9 2012...30.5 1872...10.54" 1983...0.90" 1885...25.5" 1916.....0 189449.8 1946...30.6 1885...10.41" 1980...0.94" 1866...22.3" 1888.....0 190348.4 1921...32.3 1887.....8.79" 1876...0.96" 2012...21.5" 1914.....0 201248.2 2010...32.4 1916.....8.76" 1953...1.02" 1910...21.1" 1956.....T 200847.8 1903...32.6 1896.....7.72" 2001...1.19" 1981...19.2" 1941.....T 200247.7 2000...32.7 1883.....7.70" 1912...1.25" 1905...18.5" 1960.....T 199546.9 1979...33.3 1960.....7.41" 1977...1.26" 1995...17.4" 1967.....T 198846.8 1977...33.4 1900.....6.64" 1993...1.33" 1927...17.0" 1890.....T 198646.4 1973...34.1 1875.....6.47" 1913...1.35" 1894...15.9" 1958.....T 2010* plus other years...Warmest temperature...Coldest86 3/29/1945......... 3 3/05/187286 3/31/1998......... 4 3/01/186985 3/13/1990......... 5 3/01/187584 3/21/1921......... 5 3/01/188484 3/28/1945......... 5 3/06/187283 3/20/1945......... 6 3/13/188882 3/16/1990......... 7 3/04/194382 3/28/1921......... 7 3/07/189082 3/30/1998......... 7 3/18/191682 3/29/1985......... 7 3/13/1885.............................. 8 3/19/1967warmest monthly min33 194230 197329 193129 201028 190327 195827 2008 27 201326 197126 194526 194626 194126 1898Coldest monthly max49 188750 189353 190154 188155 190055 190656 189256 197057 195857 2001Biggest snowfalls21.0" 3/12-14/188818.1" 3/7-8/194114.5" 3/3-4/196014.5" 3/1-2/191412.0" 3/15-16/189611.8" 3/20-21/195811.6" 3/18-19/195610.6" 3/13-14/1993 10.0" 3/2/1896..9.8" 3/21-22/1967 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The CFS is going for a very cold March pattern that would produce and average March temperature below 40 degrees in NYC. The new March average at NYC is 42.5 degrees. Below 40 degree March readings at NYC since 1980: 2005....39.4 2001....39.6 1996....38.9 1993....39.7 1984....36.7 CFSv2.NaT2m.20140227.201403.gif last year just missed coming in at 40.1...1994 was 40.7...March 2013 was one of the colder/snowier ones in recent years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Stand corrected i over looked that. Does look pretty good and we'll see next week if this threat does indeed have legs. Still OTS this run but what a beast. The Canadian sends the storm to the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Still OTS this run but what a beast. The Canadian sends the storm to the Bahamas. Not much room to come up the coast though with that though. The EURO has a front in the midwest that looks like it just gives it no room to come up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not much room to come up the coast though with that though. The EURO has a front in the midwest that looks like it just gives it no room to come up the coast This winter has reinforced the notion that modeling beyond 5 days is just an educated guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 This winter has reinforced the notion that modeling beyond 5 days is just an educated guess. Yea i know maybe i should've added the commonly used term "this run taken verbatim" than right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 12z GFS really blows up the day 8 Noreaster' but sends it off the SE Coast. Lots of rain for northern FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 12z GFS really blows up the day 8 Noreaster' but sends it off the SE Coast. Lots of rain for northern FL. The fact that its still there is good. Its WAY off but there will be some drumming by sunday if it continues to be not so far off the coast and maybe delay what looked to be a front in the MW that may flatten the flow on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 last year just missed coming in at 40.1...1994 was 40.7...March 2013 was one of the colder/snowier ones in recent years... The CFS really did a good job with the February forecast coldest anomalies over the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What a monster low on the Euro developing down south at the end of next week. Just doesn't seem to have the room to amplify sufficiently up the coast. Congrats western SC/NC and GA mountains me think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Closing off at H5 hour 180, what a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks like high 980's near Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Really trying to come up the coast, cirrus making it to the Jersey shore this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's almost like it's trying to cut off. It's warm but that's besides the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Moisture making up to about NYC, low right over OBX. What a beast. Really heavy banding on the north side, looks more like a recurving Hurricane to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What a tease, plenty of time to watch this one. I wonder if this ends up being our March 2010 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Definitely went further NW compared to previous runs, but... meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What a tease, plenty of time to watch this one. I wonder if this ends up being our March 2010 redux. any cold air around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 any cold air around here? Not verbatim but it's way to early to be worried about temperatures. March 2010 was a wicked noreaster for these parts with very strong winds and about 4" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Not verbatim but it's way to early to be worried about temperatures. March 2010 was a wicked noreaster for these parts with very strong winds and about 4" of rain. The very fact that we even have another chance at a mega storm in the same week we get an MECS just speaks volumes about how this winter has unfolded. I think when we look back on this winter we will remember that vast majority of storms broke our way in every which way possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 The very fact that we even have another chance at a mega storm in the same week we get an MECS just speaks volumes about how this winter has unfolded. I think when we look back on this winter we will remember that vast majority of storms broke our way in every which way possible If this storm does come to fruition and cold air would be present for all it would finish the season probably above 95-96' in many locals in the area....far off right now though currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 FWIW the 00z GGEM was very close to a big hit for the day 8 storm and the 00z GGEM ensemble mean was a really big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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