Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Envelope continues to tighten wed. 1-2" looking likely at least with below freezing surface. Stats padder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Hi-res NAM likes 1-2 for the 95 corridor and in the usual N/W spots maybe 2.5. As Bob said, stats padder and I'm perfectly fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS ok I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS around 0.15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS ok I suppose It's gotten better every run.....it didnt even any precip this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Still not a big fan.. perhaps I need to sleep on it. Seems like a setup that can dry/splotchy radar without much difficulty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS around 0.15? looks like 0.2" for DC actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Still not a big fan.. perhaps I need to sleep on it. Seems like a setup that can dry/splotchy radar without much difficulty. Euro and ens kinda stripe the metros with 1"+. Don't think it will be splotchy in a stripe. Just gotta hope that the stripe doesn't give us the finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Still not a big fan.. perhaps I need to sleep on it. Seems like a setup that can dry/splotchy radar without much difficulty. It could easily fall apart......timing will hopefully be good, and would definitely like to see it moisten up a bit...to like 0.25 - 0.35, so a better chance we get heavier rates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Still not a big fan.. perhaps I need to sleep on it. Seems like a setup that can dry/splotchy radar without much difficulty. OK, no more posting tonight...talk to you in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 850s at BWI start around -12 and end around -15 or less, so we may have to start considering some better than usual ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro and ens kinda stripe the metros with 1"+. Don't think it will be splotchy in a stripe. Just gotta hope that the stripe doesn't give us the finger 850s at BWI start around -12 and end around -15 or less, so we may have to start considering some better than usual ratios yes...looking colder...the vort goes to our north so we need the sfc low/southern stream to inject moisture into this thing...otherwise it is just a weak disturbance coming from the west and perhaps skipping over us as the coastal takes over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It could easily fall apart......timing will hopefully be good, and would definitely like to see it moisten up a bit...to like 0.25 - 0.35, so a better chance we get heavier rates... I keep thinking the widespread.25+ should show up every run but the weak coastal gets going late and a bit east on all guidance. I'm thinking 1-2" with limited upside is becoming pretty clear. Still some time but nothing is showing much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I keep thinking the widespread.25+ should show up every run but the weak coastal gets going late and a bit east on all guidance. I'm thinking 1-2" with limited upside is becoming pretty clear. Still some time but nothing is showing much more. I'll stick with 0.3" with high bust potential even if it moistens....I don't think the coastal will help us a whole lot....we need moisture injected into the upper level disturbance coming from the west....otherwise it is another mountain victory and a nice snow for south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It could easily fall apart......timing will hopefully be good, and would definitely like to see it moisten up a bit...to like 0.25 - 0.35, so a better chance we get heavier rates... It still looks more like a frontal passage around here than anything. There is a bit of moisture tapped but not much.. not sure how much can be in this scenario. The offshore low track has not really gotten much better. 1-2" isn't that impossible if it's at night tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I keep thinking the widespread.25+ should show up every run but the weak coastal gets going late and a bit east on all guidance. I'm thinking 1-2" with limited upside is becoming pretty clear. Still some time but nothing is showing much more.We have performed a number of times this winter but we have also seen some light events underperform. Just last week had that event DC was a 'lock' for .2-.35" liquid and we got 1/2" snow with most everyone getting less than models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It still looks more like a frontal passage around here than anything. There is a bit of moisture tapped but not much.. not sure how much can be in this scenario. The offshore low track has not really gotten much better. 1-2" isn't that impossible if it's at night tho. yeah...it is a glorified front...it isn't carrying much moisture....I expect it to get wetter, but part of that is seasonal trend, which might be a bad reason....the earlier it can organize the better...we never do very well when precip magically blossoms over us...I'll of course take a 0.75" stats padder that whitens things up, but I am going to be pissed if I dont get much sleep for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 We have performed a number of times this winter but we have also seen some light events underperform. Just last week had that event DC was a 'lock' for .2-.35" liquid and we got 1/2" snow with most everyone getting less than models showed. yeah...if we don't get front ended and we have to wait for a 2nd round we are in bad shape...I hope like that one, we see it fall apart mid afternoon, and not go in expecting 3".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 We have performed a number of times this winter but we have also seen some light events underperform. Just last week had that event DC was a 'lock' for .2-.35" liquid and we got 1/2" snow with most everyone getting less than models showed. True. And the overperformers had long fetch from the s-sw. Not exactly the case here. We need to time best moisture and lift overhead. Not impossible but not the same as having easy peasy .25 that gets squeezed to .40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I'm still pissed about 12/10....I need one more decent snow to get over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 yeah...it is a glorified front...it isn't carrying much moisture....I expect it to get wetter, but part of that is seasonal trend, which might be a bad reason....the earlier it can organize the better...we never do very well when precip magically blossoms over us...I'll of course take a 0.75" stats padder that whitens things up, but I am going to be pissed if I dont get much sleep for thatDefinitely not impossible to moisten it a bit...there is moisture not too far off. I guess I'm sorta clouded by even raw outputs showing a low of like 30 which might be more like 32 since they seem to always run cold. Precip helps of course especially if it's not light. The airmass the next two days is decent but not great. By this time time of year it's hard to not want to see big qpf to help out as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 True. And the overperformers had long fetch from the s-sw. Not exactly the case here. We need to time best moisture and lift overhead. Not impossible but not the same as having easy peasy .25 that gets squeezed to .40. we have poor upper level representation, and it isnt a system that is dumping any real snow on its path here....I still have a good feeling about this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 we have poor upper level representation, and it isnt a system that is dumping any real snow on its path here....I still have a good feeling about this one.... As long as closer in and metro folks score a clean 1"+ I'm good. I don't think those expectations are far fetched. There is upside of course but it sucks that this setup is another dance of lift and moisture over a relatively small area. Gotta sweat it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Definitely not impossible to moisten it a bit...there is moisture not too far off. I guess I'm sorta clouded by even raw outputs showing a low of like 30 which might be more like 32 since they seem to always run cold. Precip helps of course especially if it's not light. The airmass the next two days is decent but not great. By this time time of year it's hard to not want to see big qpf to help out as you know. we should be near or below 40 on Tuesday which will help...and column wont be an issue...I'm not as worried about temps as I am about what you are....that there is no organization and we get some falling apart nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 As long as closer in and metro folks score a clean 1"+ I'm good. I don't think those expectations are far fetched. There is upside of course but it sucks that this setup is another dance of lift and moisture over a relatively small area. Gotta sweat it out. that's a suitable track to moisten up what comes from the disturbance to the west...plus it is late February when crazy explosive sh-it has a better chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 that's a suitable track to moisten up what comes from the disturbance to the west...plus it is late February when crazy explosive sh-it has a better chance of happening. I've skipped the euro for the last 3 nights. I'm intrigued enough to hang for tonight. I keep thinking about the late Feb climo too. If it was mid Jan it would probably dry up and wither leading in. Late winter climo favors a wetter solution at least. If the euro sucks I'm going to send an invoice to Europe for 1hr of sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 gotta love the GFS for giggles...typical 3/12 wx http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140224+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 eh......complete lack of interaction between the southern moisture and our disturbance...maybe 0.08" or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 That sucks, all this waiting up for a cartopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 eh... ...complete lack of interaction between the southern moisture and our disturbance...maybe 0.08" or something Next . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . week MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.