Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Late February/March Medium - Long Range Disco


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Whoa, whoa, whoa. I'm not a consortium but I doubt I'm the only quiet observer that thinks Wednesday could well bring 2+". Ian makes a good point but with the euro holding, I think many, including LWX, still think the gfs will come around.

I'm pretty deferential to the Euro. I like the GFS and the other models but in most cases I'll lean Euro. In this case it doesn't look too hot at the moment at least IMBY. We'll have been warm to mild for a week or so going in. I'll probably need rates.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, I like that would the best, although kinda ping ponging between that at Saturday. Heh, could be tracking an appetizer to the main course.

Rough calc is over .50 on the means. It's a very big signal for the ensembles but still way out there.

Oh, and there's another storm on the heels. Hberg's perfect setup storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, euro ens is a flush hit on Monday. Ian's call continues to lead.

It could end up the storm after the storm after the storm.  The tail end of the pattern looks better than the front at the least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It could end up the storm after the storm after the storm. The tail end of the pattern looks better than the front at the least.

I tend to ignore "how it usually happens" when there is shorter lead activity but it's been starkly obvious this year that the tail is the sweet spot. This entire winter has been quite repetitive and fun. No 6 weeks of this and 6 weeks of that. I would like all winters to be like this one.

Euro ens reload the cold and amplification towards the end of the run too. Perfect ridge axis centered right up and down the west coast march 7-10th with bagginess underneath. Would imply split flow I assume.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I tend to ignore "how it usually happens" when there is shorter lead activity but it's been starkly obvious this year that the tail is the sweet spot. This entire winter has been quite repetitive and fun. No 6 weeks of this and 6 weeks of that. I would like all winters to be like this one.

Euro ens reload the cold and amplification towards the end of the run too. Perfect ridge axis centered right up and down the west coast march 7-10th with bagginess underneath. Would imply split flow I assume.

 

It could be either or, or the weekend still for that matter. Toward d10 other than the sfc the Euro ens mean doesn't really scream big setup here. I'm not completely sure why the sfc looks so good. It could happen but I'd expect it to fall apart more for now. 

 

I do miss being able to punt March just because it's March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It could be either or, or the weekend still for that matter. Toward d10 other than the sfc the Euro ens mean doesn't really scream big setup here. I'm not completely sure why the sfc looks so good. It could happen but I'd expect it to fall apart more for now.

I do miss being able to punt March just because it's March.

I'll be all in for warmth after the 10th. Looks like we have multiple chances during our only favorable climo part of March. A last hurrah of sorts. The next 8-9 days have 3 periods of interest. Wed is looking to be an inch or 2 at best. Seems like guidance is converging now and upside is slipping away. Not sure how I feel about the following 2. I suppose the odds favor one of them working out in some fashion. Big march snow has become rare. No reason to think it comes easy this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Correct me if I'm wrong (on phone so hard to see details) but it looks like 18z gefs improved a noticeable amount for wed. # of .25+ members increased. Anyone have the mean?

post-1615-0-61018000-1393200518_thumb.jp

 

changes to prior runs seem pretty modest

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter is over in Richmond. See you in December.

Ouch!

But it does seem the initial forecast(s) for the upcoming "polar vortex" were advertising a much colder air mass than is now forecast. Lows at DCA in the single digits have moderated some since then. I have not followed Richmonds forecast but I would surmise that they have trended a bit warmer also.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro in GFS long range show multiple opportunities for big events. Yeah it's March, but there's plenty of blocking and cold air. I'll be disappointed if we can't score something decent in that pattern, because several events will have to fall into the near miss/bust category for that to happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Where is this Polar Vortex that was advertised for the end of the week and the weekend.... 40's to near 50 dosent seem very polar to me.

..Seems like a bunch of hype.

 

 

Ouch!

But it does seem the initial forecast(s) for the upcoming "polar vortex" were advertising a much colder air mass than is now forecast. Lows at DCA in the single digits have moderated some since then. I have not followed Richmonds forecast but I would surmise that they have trended a bit warmer also.

 

An anomalous piece of the polar vortex in both strength and placement is going to drop down below the southern tip of Hudson Bay this week...that is a lock....how it affects our weather is another thing...but it isn't like the PV is a figment of our imagination..it is happening...maybe not as far south as we thought...It doesnt matter to me anyway until it gets to our northeast hopefully next weekend and we can get K/U'ed again...I hate PV's to our northwest...they usually suck for DC and Richmond...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

An anomalous piece of the polar vortex in both strength and placement is going to drop down below the southern tip of Hudson Bay this week...that is a lock....how it affects our weather is another thing...but it isn't like the PV is a figment of our imagination..it is happening...maybe not as far south as we thought...It doesnt matter to me anyway until it gets to our northeast hopefully next weekend and we can get K/U'ed again...I hate PV's to our northwest...they usually suck for DC and Richmond...

It just seems the effect on our backyards has diminished somewhat in the last 2 days (as far as COLD). I sure hope it has the desired effects to produce the K/U following next weekend. I'm all for the cold/snowy forecast.

Until it isn't. Then bring on spring. :whistle:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...