Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 How do the EPS look?. About .15 on the means. I won't have member output for a while. Suite is coming out slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 About .15 on the means. I won't have member output for a while. Suite is coming out slow. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Thank you. There's a lot of spread on the saturday potential. Precip field shows a lot of uncertainty. The majority favor a track a bit too far se for us attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Whoa, whoa, whoa. I'm not a consortium but I doubt I'm the only quiet observer that thinks Wednesday could well bring 2+". Ian makes a good point but with the euro holding, I think many, including LWX, still think the gfs will come around.I'm pretty deferential to the Euro. I like the GFS and the other models but in most cases I'll lean Euro. In this case it doesn't look too hot at the moment at least IMBY. We'll have been warm to mild for a week or so going in. I'll probably need rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 GFS has 0.3" or so Saturday....good timing is important...as it warms up to 40 or so that afternoon....but Friday and Friday night should be plenty cold...Friday maybe stay below freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Where is this Polar Vortex that was advertised for the end of the week and the weekend.... 40's to near 50 dosent seem very polar to me. ..Seems like a bunch of hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Wow, euro ens is a flush hit on Monday. Ian's call continues to lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 Wow, euro ens is a flush hit on Monday. Ian's call continues to lead. Yeah, I like that one the best, although kinda ping ponging between that at Saturday. Heh, could be tracking an appetizer to the main course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 Where is this Polar Vortex that was advertised for the end of the week and the weekend.... 40's to near 50 dosent seem very polar to me. ..Seems like a bunch of hype. Hello. How are you TODAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Yeah, I like that would the best, although kinda ping ponging between that at Saturday. Heh, could be tracking an appetizer to the main course. Rough calc is over .50 on the means. It's a very big signal for the ensembles but still way out there. Oh, and there's another storm on the heels. Hberg's perfect setup storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 Wow, euro ens is a flush hit on Monday. Ian's call continues to lead. 18z GFS (pre truncation of course) looks like a decent setup..some type of pseudo banana high thing going... models in La la land are excited, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Wow, euro ens is a flush hit on Monday. Ian's call continues to lead. It could end up the storm after the storm after the storm. The tail end of the pattern looks better than the front at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 And to be fair, I think HM was on the week after this week more than this week like last week. I hug the Euro and HM but not necessarily in that order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 It could end up the storm after the storm after the storm. The tail end of the pattern looks better than the front at the least. I tend to ignore "how it usually happens" when there is shorter lead activity but it's been starkly obvious this year that the tail is the sweet spot. This entire winter has been quite repetitive and fun. No 6 weeks of this and 6 weeks of that. I would like all winters to be like this one. Euro ens reload the cold and amplification towards the end of the run too. Perfect ridge axis centered right up and down the west coast march 7-10th with bagginess underneath. Would imply split flow I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro member output posted for 12z. Trimmed potential on Wed a little. About 1.5" on the means. Saturday is a weak signal too. Mon-wed look tasty. Plenty of good shellackings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I tend to ignore "how it usually happens" when there is shorter lead activity but it's been starkly obvious this year that the tail is the sweet spot. This entire winter has been quite repetitive and fun. No 6 weeks of this and 6 weeks of that. I would like all winters to be like this one. Euro ens reload the cold and amplification towards the end of the run too. Perfect ridge axis centered right up and down the west coast march 7-10th with bagginess underneath. Would imply split flow I assume. It could be either or, or the weekend still for that matter. Toward d10 other than the sfc the Euro ens mean doesn't really scream big setup here. I'm not completely sure why the sfc looks so good. It could happen but I'd expect it to fall apart more for now. I do miss being able to punt March just because it's March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 It could be either or, or the weekend still for that matter. Toward d10 other than the sfc the Euro ens mean doesn't really scream big setup here. I'm not completely sure why the sfc looks so good. It could happen but I'd expect it to fall apart more for now. I do miss being able to punt March just because it's March. I'll be all in for warmth after the 10th. Looks like we have multiple chances during our only favorable climo part of March. A last hurrah of sorts. The next 8-9 days have 3 periods of interest. Wed is looking to be an inch or 2 at best. Seems like guidance is converging now and upside is slipping away. Not sure how I feel about the following 2. I suppose the odds favor one of them working out in some fashion. Big march snow has become rare. No reason to think it comes easy this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I am getting ready for the meh event this week. It's exhausting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong (on phone so hard to see details) but it looks like 18z gefs improved a noticeable amount for wed. # of .25+ members increased. Anyone have the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong (on phone so hard to see details) but it looks like 18z gefs improved a noticeable amount for wed. # of .25+ members increased. Anyone have the mean? changes to prior runs seem pretty modest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Thanks Ian. I don't have mean panels for the gefs unless I'm missing something on Wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Thanks Ian. I don't have mean panels for the gefs unless I'm missing something on Wxbell.I'm not sure where it is there either if it is there. The above is from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Where is this Polar Vortex that was advertised for the end of the week and the weekend.... 40's to near 50 dosent seem very polar to me. ..Seems like a bunch of hype. Winter is over in Richmond. See you in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Winter is over in Richmond. See you in December. Ouch! But it does seem the initial forecast(s) for the upcoming "polar vortex" were advertising a much colder air mass than is now forecast. Lows at DCA in the single digits have moderated some since then. I have not followed Richmonds forecast but I would surmise that they have trended a bit warmer also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro in GFS long range show multiple opportunities for big events. Yeah it's March, but there's plenty of blocking and cold air. I'll be disappointed if we can't score something decent in that pattern, because several events will have to fall into the near miss/bust category for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Where is this Polar Vortex that was advertised for the end of the week and the weekend.... 40's to near 50 dosent seem very polar to me. ..Seems like a bunch of hype. Ouch! But it does seem the initial forecast(s) for the upcoming "polar vortex" were advertising a much colder air mass than is now forecast. Lows at DCA in the single digits have moderated some since then. I have not followed Richmonds forecast but I would surmise that they have trended a bit warmer also. An anomalous piece of the polar vortex in both strength and placement is going to drop down below the southern tip of Hudson Bay this week...that is a lock....how it affects our weather is another thing...but it isn't like the PV is a figment of our imagination..it is happening...maybe not as far south as we thought...It doesnt matter to me anyway until it gets to our northeast hopefully next weekend and we can get K/U'ed again...I hate PV's to our northwest...they usually suck for DC and Richmond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 An anomalous piece of the polar vortex in both strength and placement is going to drop down below the southern tip of Hudson Bay this week...that is a lock....how it affects our weather is another thing...but it isn't like the PV is a figment of our imagination..it is happening...maybe not as far south as we thought...It doesnt matter to me anyway until it gets to our northeast hopefully next weekend and we can get K/U'ed again...I hate PV's to our northwest...they usually suck for DC and Richmond... It just seems the effect on our backyards has diminished somewhat in the last 2 days (as far as COLD). I sure hope it has the desired effects to produce the K/U following next weekend. I'm all for the cold/snowy forecast. Until it isn't. Then bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Haven't paid to much attention to the models over the weekend, but a quick glance at the euro says it has 3 potential snow chances in the next 10 days, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 looks like the 0Z NAM has figured out Wed morning with qpf of .13" at both DCA & BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 looks like the 0Z NAM has figured out Wed morning with qpf of .13" at both DCA & BWI It does look a bit more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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