Ian Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I know wishcasting is more or less accepted when it comes to snow but the Euro track for midweek is still pretty far offshore to be too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Personally, I'm rooting for the next 6 months. Well, yeah, I'd take that too. I'm really impressed with this winter. Very consistent. Long. If it ends soon, I'm ok with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I know wishcasting is more or less accepted when it comes to snow but the Euro track for midweek is still pretty far offshore to be too excited. Wednesday is probably a sore subject for the GFS bashers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Wednesday is probably a sore subject for the GFS bashers. Looks to me like the track hasn't really shifted much in the past day or two. There's certainly a signal for potential of some light garbage precip but I dunno where people are getting that ~2-4" is the ultimate answer etc other than they want to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Well, yeah, I'd take that too. I'm really impressed with this winter. Very consistent. Long. If it ends soon, I'm ok with it. Yeah, it felt like the winters I remember as a kid; a lot of sledding and even ice-skating, which hasn't been possible around here in a while. Still feels like the warm periods ended up warmer than I remember, even though they were far shorter in duration than what we've been accustomed to lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I know wishcasting is more or less accepted when it comes to snow but the Euro track for midweek is still pretty far offshore to be too excited. I'm basing 1-3/2-4 mostly on the euro ensembles and also that events have trended wetter from d3 on in more often than not this season. If the euro ens back down this this afternoon and tomorrow then I'll drop expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I know wishcasting is more or less accepted when it comes to snow but the Euro track for midweek is still pretty far offshore to be too excited. might as well just call me and Bob chill by name since we are the only ones who havent basically written it off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm basing 1-3/2-4 mostly on the euro ensembles and also that events have trended wetter from d3 on in more often than not this season. If the euro ens back down this this afternoon and tomorrow then I'll drop expectations. It's as if calling for 0.3" is idiotic from 3 days out when a model has given you 0.25" and 0.15" the last 2 runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 might as well just call me and Bob chill by name since we are the only ones who havent basically written it off...I haven't really written it off but it's definitely not looking too hot. I think you've been a little unhinged recently compared to your normal analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Wednesday is probably a sore subject for the GFS bashers. How has the GFS performed for your backyard this winter?...specifics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 Wednesday is probably a sore subject for the GFS bashers. Who are the GFS bashers, specifically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I haven't really written it off but it's definitely not looking too hot. I think you've been a little unhinged recently compared to your normal analysis. I like to learn from past experience, and many people here don't (not pointing at you)......0.3" or 2-4" is hardly wishcasting from this range....And I've given my reasons....It may not happen, but the writing it off posts are identical to the same posts people made before every other event, myself included....The amount of deference we show models outside 48-72 hours continues to be silly....I know you are in 70 degree, severe, snowlovers are morons mode....And I don't blame you...it's nice out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I like to learn from past experience, and many people here don't (not pointing at you)......0.3" or 2-4" is hardly wishcasting from this range....And I've given my reasons....It may not happen, but the writing it off posts are identical to the same posts people made before every other event, myself included....The amount of deference we show models outside 48-72 hours continues to be silly....I know you are in 70 degree, severe, snowlovers are morons mode....And I don't blame you...it's nice out I've said multiple times that I'd delay climo and that we have shots for a few weeks ahead probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Who are the GFS bashers, specifically? Neither you nor Matt. They know who they are. And they know why they do it. Matt, I think it has done pretty well. Specifics are hard because my memory seems to blend everything into one. I know it was awful for Feb 12, good IMO for Jan 21 and Jan 2, very good for an event in November I think where the Euro was forecasting a major snow. I think it also performed well in early December. I'm not the public defender of the GFS but I think it's silly when people act like it's off it's rocker when it doesn't show snow. I'd say the two big models have performed pretty evenly this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 Neither you nor Matt. They know who they are. And they know why they do it. Matt, I think it has done pretty well. Specifics are hard because my memory seems to blend everything into one. I know it was awful for Feb 12, good IMO for Jan 21 and Jan 2, very good for an event in November I think where the Euro was forecasting a major snow. I think it also performed well in early December. I'm not the public defender of the GFS but I think it's silly when people act like it's off it's rocker when it doesn't show snow. I'd say the two big models have performed pretty evenly this year. Ok. I wasn't clear if you thought we were or not. I've defended the GFS here multiple times. I don't hate it or dislike it as much as Matt, but it was clearly off it's game the last event. I've always stated that I like the GFS to be on board before I'm fully confident with any big event. I think that still stands. It's always annoying and worrisome when it's not...the last storm is a perfect example.....I had high confidence that we were going to get hit with a nice storm....every global model except the GFS had it. But the GFS being stubborn is what kept me from being truly excited...not gonna lie. I think most here know the GFS bias/truncation issue, but you right in that some people here dump on the GFS simply because it doesn't show what they want. I'm guilty of it sometimes, but I do incorporate some known GFS biases in my reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Who are the GFS bashers, specifically?I think the problem begins using op run surface panels (of any model) beyond 4 days and setting the expectation of a verbatim deterministic solution. We've all been there. I know I have. It's funny when the "gfs is garbage" comments come out when a d8 threat bounces around like a super ball. I expect nothing but that to happen. I think the gfs is really good overall but I know its weaknesses. They're kinda obvious. GFS sucked at the surface for the 2/12-13 period but it did really well @ h5 and slp/850lp tracks. I'll admit that the precip output pissed me off but the model did really well with other important features. So did the Nam. That event actually revived my respect for the nam. I think anyone who bashes any model doesn't understand the concept of guidance envelope and definitely doesn't use ensemble guidance as a more important tool than op runs beyond 72 hours. GEFS guidance is invaluable in the mid-long range. I use it way more than the op when trying to make sense of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I've said multiple times that I'd delay climo and that we have shots for a few weeks ahead probably. I think you are right to be cautious for wednesday given there is no southern vort. I think the track is fine for a quick hit. .I'd be much less bullish if there was no frontrunning complex and we needed a compact system to back up so we don't get fringed. Precip coming from the southwest in late February from a low in the gulf can pack more dynamics than in Mid January. And the globals aren't very good at capturing smaller scale dynamics.....You are right that this isnt a situation where we have great 500mb representation and the surface doesnt match. But I still expect models to underdo QPF in this setup, even with the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Neither you nor Matt. They know who they are. And they know why they do it. Matt, I think it has done pretty well. Specifics are hard because my memory seems to blend everything into one. I know it was awful for Feb 12, good IMO for Jan 21 and Jan 2, very good for an event in November I think where the Euro was forecasting a major snow. I think it also performed well in early December. I'm not the public defender of the GFS but I think it's silly when people act like it's off it's rocker when it doesn't show snow. I'd say the two big models have performed pretty evenly this year. It wasn't good for either...not that the euro was great either...it had major issues outside 48 hours for both storms..way too bullish on one and bearish on the other....we continue on this board to be way too deferential to models outside of 1-3 days.....to an extent that indicates we are wholly incapable of learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 End of the run has good support for ensembles and is damn right amazing...FWIW Wednesday may or may not be a 1-5" type deal, but the waves after that have a lot better ensemble/overall guidance support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 End of the run has good support for ensembles and is damn right amazing...FWIW Wednesday may or may not be a 1-5" type deal, but the waves after that have a lot better ensemble/overall guidance support. euro`.gif euro2.gif 192 is a pretty panel but the pieces are still moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Yea, I remember a few days ago when that 240hr map showed a huge MA hit for next weekend. I remember when the GFS was the model that showed KU events constantly in the 10 day range. Now it seems the roles are reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I love Matts confidence. Personally, I hope we squeeze something out of the next three weeks and then I hope we have highs from 62-72 for the next three months. Personally, I'm rooting for the next 6 months. Agree, I'd just add that it only rains at night so my business schedule and outdoor activities are not disrupted in my last summer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I remember when the GFS was the model that showed KU events constantly in the 10 day range. Now it seems the roles are reversed. we never used to look at operational models past like 120 with anything but a laugh....somehow recently we look at them like they are highly skilled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I think you are right to be cautious for wednesday given there is no southern vort. I think the track is fine for a quick hit. .I'd be much less bullish if there was no frontrunning complex and we needed a compact system to back up so we don't get fringed. Precip coming from the southwest in late February from a low in the gulf can pack more dynamics than in Mid January. And the globals aren't very good at capturing smaller scale dynamics.....You are right that this isnt a situation where we have great 500mb representation and the surface doesnt match. But I still expect models to underdo QPF in this setup, even with the same track. I'm less invested than those who care a lot still at this pt for sure. To me especially now all I really care about is if it snows enough to get good pics. There has been a sense in the past week that we're in "hope" mode more than earlier in the winter. Which I suppose is fine too, though to me personally I don't get much from it. I think your reasoning here is solid.. you could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I am still "in" for a light event for Wed, but outside of expecting the models to trend wetter/further west because that is what the tendency has been this winter, using an objective analysis of the guidance, it looks a bit blah. Nothing really happening at 500 mb. The Euro, which was the one model that had a far enough west track (for maybe a 2-4 inch event), has trended east the last 2 runs. All other guidance is further east. Still time for some adjustments though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 might as well just call me and Bob chill by name since we are the only ones who havent basically written it off... Whoa, whoa, whoa. I'm not a consortium but I doubt I'm the only quiet observer that thinks Wednesday could well bring 2+". Ian makes a good point but with the euro holding, I think many, including LWX, still think the gfs will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Whoa, whoa, whoa. I'm not a consortium but I doubt I'm the only quiet observer that thinks Wednesday could well bring 2+". Ian makes a good point but with the euro holding, I think many, including LWX, still think the gfs will come around. The Euro hasn't really held though. It still has the most westward track, but it has trended east, more towards the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm less invested than those who care a lot still at this pt for sure. To me especially now all I really care about is if it snows enough to get good pics. There has been a sense in the past week that we're in "hope" mode more than earlier in the winter. Which I suppose is fine too, though to me personally I don't get much from it. I think your reasoning here is solid.. you could be right. I am in the minority..even most snowlovers are kind of meh by end of February...I love late season snow and how snow events are all so unique..even small ones..love wet snow too because it is pretty...save for last year our springs are kind of lame anyway..once we hit 3/10 I am kind of done, except for the anomalous special event..too much rain here and 0.25"'s even when it snows...If there is a good late season event I hope it is a weekend...would be down for a trip to the Catoctins who seem to do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I am in the minority..even most snowlovers are kind of meh by end of February...I love late season snow and how snow events are all so unique..even small ones..love wet snow too because it is pretty...save for last year our springs are kind of lame anyway..once we hit 3/10 I am kind of done, except for the anomalous special event..too much rain here and 0.25"'s even when it snows...If there is a good late season event I hope it is a weekend...would be down for a trip to the Catoctins who seem to do well I like late season events too. Different mindset and expectations. Storms with dynamics that produce heavy wet snow despite the warming atmosphere are cool. I really enjoyed the late march snow last winter. Was coming down heavy in the early to mid morning, stuck to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm basing 1-3/2-4 mostly on the euro ensembles and also that events have trended wetter from d3 on in more often than not this season. If the euro ens back down this this afternoon and tomorrow then I'll drop expectations. How do the EPS look?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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