olafminesaw Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Of course dude...i'm strictly talking about raw model output RIGHT NOW...we all know it's not going to look exactly like that in 200 hours....relative to right now..this current run is what I'm talking about. I'm discussing the 12z run as it is......truncation screwed it up IMO. That's it. Now in terms of forecasting or a reasonable outlook, I'd hang my hat on the Euro, absolutely. Like I said earlier, 3/3 is the better chance and I'm basing that purely on the Euro. It seems like this argument happens every single day, and everyone eventually gets on the same page- that any analysis of a particular model run, particularly at long leads, must be taken with a grain of salt, but that analysis is still useful. No need to beat the dead horse every single day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Sat looks like snow here per Plymouth maps wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 anybody with SV confirm what, if anything, that falls Fri night/Sat? 700 and 850mb RH maps look juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Day 7 look ominous too http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 It seems like this argument happens every single day, and everyone eventually gets on the same page- that any analysis of a particular model run, particularly at long leads, must be taken with a grain of salt, but that analysis is still useful. No need to beat the dead horse every single day. uh, ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Sat looks like snow here per Plymouth maps wtf? 2-3" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 2-3" or so not bad not bad. Hopefully sets the stage for something bigger. In that map Mitch posted, looks like some good confluence, but how long will it last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 192 HRS EURO holds the cold, but the wave is really weak & strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 198 HRS low is starting to really strengthen, heavy snow in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 2-3" or so hey, 1-2" Wed morning, 2-3" Sat....verbatim, not bad with hopes of Sat. coming back to life even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 198 HRS low is starting to really strengthen, heavy snow in VA where in VA? ROA or N VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 fookin' accuwx mos is stuck at 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 really brings the cold in Sat. night and Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 March 2-3 is pretty tight again 0.8" all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 not bad not bad. Hopefully sets the stage for something bigger. In that map Mitch posted, looks like some good confluence, but how long will it last I'm mostly focused on Wed for now. It's still very much up in the air irt how much it can get organized. I still think 2-4" is very much in play but like matt said earlier, tough to pin down and changes until tues on guidance. Next weekend has just about run the gambit of solutions. Monster strike, suppressed whiff, rain storm, and now a weak wave. Who knows. The third one in line requires very little analysis at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 fookin' accuwx mos is stuck at 36 hrs not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 March 2-3 is pretty tight again 0.8" all snow 3 snow events on one run, not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 hey, 1-2" Wed morning, 2-3" Sat....verbatim, not bad with hopes of Sat. coming back to life even more I wouldn't quit on Wednesday....Unless you suddenly have inside info that the models have acquired skill they have never possessed before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Wow, LR is screaming HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm mostly focused on Wed for now. It's still very much up in the air irt how much it can get organized. I still think 2-4" is very much in play but like matt said earlier, tough to pin down and changes until tues on guidance. Next weekend has just about run the gambit of solutions. Monster strike, suppressed whiff, rain storm, and now a weak wave. Who knows. The third one in line requires very little analysis at this point. yes...people need to remember 1/2....most of us threw in the towel on New Years day and figured we'd be lucky to see a warm 1"....then all the sudden the Euro sprung back to life.....we all got near 0.4" from that event.... People should also remember 1/21 when the euro gave us 0.04" 36 hours before the event... I'd bet on Wednesday getting wetter...maybe not crazy wet....but I think 0.3" is doable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The 240hr map is insane, all in all a positive EURO run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 yes...people need to remember 1/2....most of us threw in the towel on New Years day and figured we'd be lucky to see a warm 1"....then all the sudden the Euro sprung back to life.....we all got near 0.4" from that event.... People should also remember 1/21 when the euro gave us 0.04" 36 hours before the event... I'd bet on Wednesday getting wetter...maybe not crazy wet....but I think 0.3" is doable.... Wed has had the ingredients for days but since things get going basically overhead it seems kinda ripe to do exactly what you're thinking. .30+/- seems more likely than .10 or less. At least to me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The 240hr map is insane, all in all a positive EURO run. Yea, I remember a few days ago when that 240hr map showed a huge MA hit for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The 240hr map is insane, all in all a positive EURO run. yeah...we're about to get K/U'ed next couple frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 yes...people need to remember 1/2....most of us threw in the towel on New Years day and figured we'd be lucky to see a warm 1"....then all the sudden the Euro sprung back to life.....we all got near 0.4" from that event.... People should also remember 1/21 when the euro gave us 0.04" 36 hours before the event... I'd bet on Wednesday getting wetter...maybe not crazy wet....but I think 0.3" is doable.... Maybe, but its still a little problematic that neither the GFS or CMC has very much precipitation....I liked it better on Friday when everything agreed! Lol. So much easier that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The one after march 3 has the most potential for ku. Gfs has had a storm in that timeframe for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The one after march 3 has the most potential for ku. Gfs has had a storm in that timeframe for several days Enjoy Orlando Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I love Matts confidence. Personally, I hope we squeeze something out of the next three weeks and then I hope we have highs from 62-72 for the next three months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Maybe, but its still a little problematic that neither the GFS or CMC has very much precipitation....I liked it better on Friday when everything agreed! Lol. So much easier that way Was it problematic when the GFS had barely 1/2" of liquid 6 hours before the onset of the 20th highest rated NESIS storm ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I love Matts confidence. Personally, I hope we squeeze something out of the next three weeks and then I hope we have highs from 62-72 for the next three months. Personally, I'm rooting for the next 6 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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