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Late February/March Medium - Long Range Disco


stormtracker

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Of course dude...i'm strictly talking about raw model output RIGHT NOW...we all know it's not going to look exactly like that in 200 hours....relative to right now..this current run is what I'm talking about.    I'm discussing the 12z run as it is......truncation screwed it up IMO.  That's it.

 

Now in terms of forecasting or a reasonable outlook, I'd hang my hat on the Euro, absolutely.  Like I said earlier, 3/3 is the better chance and I'm basing that purely on the Euro.

It seems like this argument happens every single day, and everyone eventually gets on the same page- that any analysis of a particular model run, particularly at long leads, must be taken with a grain of salt, but that analysis is still useful. No need to beat the dead horse every single day.

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It seems like this argument happens every single day, and everyone eventually gets on the same page- that any analysis of a particular model run, particularly at long leads, must be taken with a grain of salt, but that analysis is still useful. No need to beat the dead horse every single day.

uh, ok?

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not bad not bad. Hopefully sets the stage for something bigger. In that map Mitch posted, looks like some good confluence, but how long will it last

I'm mostly focused on Wed for now. It's still very much up in the air irt how much it can get organized. I still think 2-4" is very much in play but like matt said earlier, tough to pin down and changes until tues on guidance.

Next weekend has just about run the gambit of solutions. Monster strike, suppressed whiff, rain storm, and now a weak wave. Who knows. The third one in line requires very little analysis at this point.

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I'm mostly focused on Wed for now. It's still very much up in the air irt how much it can get organized. I still think 2-4" is very much in play but like matt said earlier, tough to pin down and changes until tues on guidance.

Next weekend has just about run the gambit of solutions. Monster strike, suppressed whiff, rain storm, and now a weak wave. Who knows. The third one in line requires very little analysis at this point.

 

yes...people need to remember 1/2....most of us threw in the towel on New Years day and figured we'd be lucky to see a warm 1"....then all the sudden the Euro sprung back to life.....we all got near 0.4" from that event....

 

People should also remember 1/21 when the euro gave us 0.04" 36 hours before the event...

 

I'd bet on Wednesday getting wetter...maybe not crazy wet....but I think 0.3" is doable....

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yes...people need to remember 1/2....most of us threw in the towel on New Years day and figured we'd be lucky to see a warm 1"....then all the sudden the Euro sprung back to life.....we all got near 0.4" from that event....

People should also remember 1/21 when the euro gave us 0.04" 36 hours before the event...

I'd bet on Wednesday getting wetter...maybe not crazy wet....but I think 0.3" is doable....

Wed has had the ingredients for days but since things get going basically overhead it seems kinda ripe to do exactly what you're thinking. .30+/- seems more likely than .10 or less. At least to me anyways.

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yes...people need to remember 1/2....most of us threw in the towel on New Years day and figured we'd be lucky to see a warm 1"....then all the sudden the Euro sprung back to life.....we all got near 0.4" from that event....

 

People should also remember 1/21 when the euro gave us 0.04" 36 hours before the event...

 

I'd bet on Wednesday getting wetter...maybe not crazy wet....but I think 0.3" is doable....

Maybe, but its still a little problematic that neither the GFS or CMC has very much precipitation....I liked it better on Friday when everything agreed! Lol. So much easier that way

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Maybe, but its still a little problematic that neither the GFS or CMC has very much precipitation....I liked it better on Friday when everything agreed! Lol. So much easier that way

 

Was it problematic when the GFS had barely 1/2" of liquid 6 hours before the onset of the 20th highest rated NESIS storm ever?

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