Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 winter over Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro? Anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Canadian for Mar 3-4......Late night eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 euro is ~0.25" for DC...I could see it getting wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 gemglb00_PT_37.gifCanadian for Mar 3-4......Late night eye candy. GEFS also significantly colder than the GFS op and suggest winter weather threat for March 3-4. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 euro is ~0.25" for DC...I could see it getting wetter GEFS mean is roughly 0.2" for Tuesday/Wed. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 FWIW, March 3rd is an 8-10" snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Storm after the storm. It's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 6z GFS has the storm a little closer to the coast on Tuesday night. It's still not 4th down. it's too early to punt this storm. H5 is also trending better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 6z GFS has the storm a little closer to the coast on Tuesday night. It's still not 4th down. it's too early to punt this storm. H5 is also trending better. So we are basing this off of the GFS? Euro has about .2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I don't know why people are saying Winter is over, there are still 26 days left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro ind members and 6z gfs very supportive of a couple inches on wed. The weekend is bascially unresolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 For Wednesday, 12z NAM looks to be 0.1 here. Improvement over 6z run which had about 0.04" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I don't know why people are saying Winter is over, there are still 26 days left. Its over March 1. Met spring. Really makes little sense to define the start/end of seasons by sun angle. By Dec 21 half the country has had winter weather for a month. And in this area we can be all a bloom with temps in the 70s by the second week in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Its over March 1. Met spring. Really makes little sense to define the start/end of seasons by sun angle. By Dec 21 half the country has had winter weather for a month. And in this area we can be all a bloom with temps in the 70s by the second week in March. I was kidding lol... It's not like we can't get snow in "real" Spring. It happened last year, even though that was a mediocre event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 12z GFS actually has the storm not OTS on March 1. We get hit, but it's all rain (not that it matters at this point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 I think out of the 3 chances we have coming up the next 7 days, oddly enough the one farthest away is probably our best shot...GFS looked great before truncation screwed it up.....and for the GFS gallantry brigade comes in (hi Winterwxlvr!) I'm not saying the GFS is wrong simply because it doesn't show what I want, but truncation certainly does have an affect on it's various solutions. Threat one for Wednesday is still def on the table, but enthusiasm is waning for that one...the March 1 threat still intrigues me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm siding toward the euro and euro ensembles. Seems like the last couple events, the ncep guidance was playing catchup to the euro. It has consistently showed the wed event for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I think the whole run is ripe with potential. Should be an interesting two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm siding toward the euro and euro ensembles. Seems like the last couple events, the ncep guidance was playing catchup to the euro. It has consistently showed the wed event for days I agree. Although at best this is a couple inches, and probably only for I-95 east. Kinda meh. As for Saturday, well at least the GFS is wet, so we got that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I think out of the 3 chances we have coming up the next 7 days, oddly enough the one farthest away is probably our best shot...GFS looked great before truncation screwed it up.....and for the GFS gallantry brigade comes in (hi Winterwxlvr!) I'm not saying the GFS is wrong simply because it doesn't show what I want, but truncation certainly does have an affect on it's various solutions. Threat one for Wednesday is still def on the table, but enthusiasm is waning for that one...the March 1 threat still intrigues me... The fact that it is 200 hours out also has an effect...the model is useless at that range...what it says has no value...as far as Wednesday, I don't have unreasonable expectations for the models. I don't expect the GFS to run a mile in under 5 minutes, when all school year, it has been a fat asthmatic kid who collapses halfway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm siding toward the euro and euro ensembles. Seems like the last couple events, the ncep guidance was playing catchup to the euro. It has consistently showed the wed event for days yes....what has the GFS shown us this winter that would suddenly compel us to find utility in its output? Wednesday is the type of event that can trend wetter...I am all-in for sure....If it doesn't happen or it sucks so be it. But given the model performance this winter, I am not going to worry about what they show until Tuesday....and even then we'll see some changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 don't know how much of the cold in N Canada will make it to us, but I will say I haven't seen cold numbers like what are shown on this map up at the Pole ever; not to say it hasn't happened in the last 15 years, but that I don't recall seeing -55 to -60 http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I don't expect the GFS to run a mile in under 5 minutes, when all school year, it has been a fat asthmatic kid who collapses halfway Oh lawdy, I know this is banter, but this mental image had me howling! No faith in the GFS, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Oh lawdy, I know this is banter, but this mental image had me howling! No faith in the GFS, eh? Nope, very little faith in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro is about 0.15" for DC...from around 3am to 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro is about 0.15" for DC...from around 3am to 9am Getting drier, this is not looking pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 The fact that it is 200 hours out also has an effect...the model is useless at that range...what it says has no value...as far as Wednesday, I don't have unreasonable expectations for the models. I don't expect the GFS to run a mile in under 5 minutes, when all school year, it has been a fat asthmatic kid who collapses halfway Of course dude...i'm strictly talking about raw model output RIGHT NOW...we all know it's not going to look exactly like that in 200 hours....relative to right now..this current run is what I'm talking about. I'm discussing the 12z run as it is......truncation screwed it up IMO. That's it. Now in terms of forecasting or a reasonable outlook, I'd hang my hat on the Euro, absolutely. Like I said earlier, 3/3 is the better chance and I'm basing that purely on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Midweek storm is a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 meh on Wednesday....Euro give BWI .15" in mainly rain tonight alone don't know on Wednesday yet, but if DCA is .15", I can't see BWI more than .2" well, considering where we live, we should be happy with our 1-2" I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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