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Late February/March Medium - Long Range Disco


stormtracker

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temps are too warm except the last part as the storm pulls away...it's still a substantial slug of moisture in the cold sector at the end

We'll see how it goes but midlevels are an uphill battle. Euro ensembles strongly favor rain and so does other guidance for the most part. I've barely looked though. We'll see how it looks once I'm done shoveling 10" on monday.

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Although the cold signal is weakening, the NAEFS continues to predict below normal temperatures in the 8-14 day range.  It has done so every 12-hour period since 00 UT February 15. 

 

It has also predicted a wintry event in the March 3/4 time frame since February 18. Stunning. 

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These types of mid March events are quite common, in our imagination. 

 

I still am not quite ready to give up hope on the 7th although it doesn't look promising.

ive seen 2 solutions for the 7th

 

cold enough but supressed and OTS

it gets up here(JMA) but warm takes over

 

next?

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Ji, the d9-10 signal is there on the euro ens. Lots of spread but a good signal for a coastal. Mslp track is up the coast. Precip panels are pretty good for a long lead but 850 mean is dicey till d10.

We've been fooled many times with long lead stuff this year when ens support the op. I don't have many thoughts other than it being interesting

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Ji, the d9-10 signal is there on the euro ens. Lots of spread but a good signal for a coastal. Mslp track is up the coast. Precip panels are pretty good for a long lead but 850 mean is dicey till d10.

We've been fooled many times with long lead stuff this year when ens support the op. I don't have many thoughts other than it being interesting

It's going to happen. It's the storm after the march 6/7 storm that will likely miss is. That's been the pattern. You see a storm in long range like feb 8-10 or feb 28 to march 1 and there is a storm 2-3 days later

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