SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow that is some serious CAD on the 6z gfs, surface never even flirts with freezing near DC. Another model showdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6z GFS is south. Looks like snow @ BWI. Sleet south of there. Trend ? Or just blip ? Euro was also a touch colder. But still sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I don't buy how the storm is suppressed and doesn't come up the coast once the temps drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6z GFS is south. Looks like snow @ BWI. Sleet south of there. Trend ? Or just blip ? Euro was also a touch colder. But still sucked. yes it seems the snow sleet line move a bit south from where it was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 00z GFS Cobb output for Westminster: .64 snow, .2 fzra 06z output: 1.01 snow Timing for both is Sunday afternoon to Monday night into Tuesday. I'm liking the trends of less sleet/ice Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Based on TwisterData soundings, 06z GFS looks much colder in Towson, with all snow throughout. Am I reading this right? 13 degrees at the surface at 1PM on Monday? Looks like it might be heavy snow at that time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS rushed the PV out ahead of the storm, probably best case scenario, but we'll see what 12z offers! Also, how about that EURO storm on the 6-7th? GFS hinting at it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just wow to the CAD on the GFS run! That would be an ice chunk if the COBB is true! Sleet storm out this way! temps into the teens with heavy sleet. YUCK.. beats freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 per 6Z GFS 3-hr soundings, mby is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow, I thought people were exaggerating, but the6z gfs is tons colder than 0z and all other models. That wedge is pretty epic. The sfc line isn't even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow, I thought people were exaggerating, but the6z gfs is tons colder than 0z and all other models. That wedge is pretty epic. The sfc line isn't even close. all goes back to what HM sais yesterday, in the GFS's case, no vortex left in W Canada http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_090_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=090&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140227+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow, I thought people were exaggerating, but the6z gfs is tons colder than 0z and all other models. That wedge is pretty epic. The sfc line isn't even close. It's tempting to get excited, but that wedge is probably overplayed for the metro areas. N/W, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 per 6Z GFS 3-hr soundings, mby is all snow Per 6z GFS mby would be snow/sleet to sleet to sleet/zr to sleet to snow. Lots of sleet. Need the GFS to stay generally where it is but with the back end wave a bit more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Maybe the models are underestimating the strength of the HP & PV. Also, isn't CAD always under modeled at long leads ? Seems like cold air always hangs on longer than forecast in similar events. Just my 2 cents. But let's see what the rest of today's model suite has to say. Could be more frozen precip. than we first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Major polar night jet deceleration and possible west NAOridge does make later next week interesting. But, we won't know how threatening it is until early week is resolved with PV etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Maybe the models are underestimating the strength of the HP & PV. Also, isn't CAD always under modeled at long leads ? Seems like cold air always hangs on longer than forecast in similar events. Just my 2 cents. But let's see what the rest of today's model suite has to say. Could be more frozen precip. than we first thought.Globals don't have resolution to nail cad. Euro is pretty good for a global as it has the highest resolution. If we are going to get a performing wedge it needs to set up strong Sunday night. Monday day won't work if we are within a few degrees of freezing either way at 7am. Short range models like the nam and even the srefs are pretty good at detailing cad but their useful range is inside of 72 hours. 48 is better. For now just track the strength and placement of the hp to the north. 1030 is a good benchmark as a minimum. Stronger is better. We don't want surface flow any more e than ne. N-NNE is ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 per 6Z GFS 3-hr soundings, mby is all snow I live nw of you, for what day did you do the sounding, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Major polar night jet deceleration and possible west NAOridge does make later next week interesting. But, we won't know how threatening it is until early week is resolved with PV etc. Briefly, what is 'polar night jet deceleration.' By the way I wish you would post in more sub forums. I come in here often just to see if you have posted. (also for JI's comments ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS is all snow to the west of the cities. But it is a surprisingly light amount of QPF for such an extended event. Only .63 at MRB for the duration. And that is some amazingly cold air for March on the model for next week. 10 below on Thursday morning is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Briefly, what is 'polar night jet deceleration.' By the way I wish you would post in more sub forums. I come in here often just to see if you have posted. (also for JI's comments ) It's the strong westerly jet that surrounds stratospheric polar vortex. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ The events of the last couple of years ultimately landed me in this forum, where I appreciate the community and history I have with the posters.thanks for nice words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's the strong westerly jet that surrounds stratospheric polar vortex. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ The events of the last couple of years ultimately landed me in this forum, where I appreciate the community and history I have with the posters.thanks for nice words. I have to agree......this forum is the most informative with the least B.S. and some good humor too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just noticed there's a new thread on the March 3rd storm: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43040-march-madness-03032014/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS has a more pronounced shortwave out west for the end of week storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS has a more pronounced shortwave out west for the end of week storm.... if there is a noreaster on March 8 or 9...the GFS will probably have it by March 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 euro ensembles say what spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 bob...im seeing alot of euro members with alot of snow for late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Dry thats what you hope since you will be gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 euro ensembles say what spring? sucks living in a snowy area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 WOW, the GGEM @ 144 has a very nice storm developing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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