Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 0.25" of precip total falls after this sounding, 0.17" of which falls in the next 3 hours..Does this look like a snow sounding to anyone? Does it look like I am about to immediately flip?....the sounding 3 hours later is barely a snow sounding and only 0.08" falls after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 ALL THE P-TYPES! It would be great to get a pure ice event so we could get ice storm warnings instead of winter storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 0.25" of precip total falls after this sounding, 0.17" of which falls in the next 3 hours..Does this look like a snow sounding to anyone? Does it look like I am about to immediately flip?....the sounding 3 hours later is barely a snow sounding and only 0.08" falls after that wtf.png dat CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 GGEM isn't bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It has become clear that if you are a snow sounding at a certain hour that Wxbell maps count ALL precip in the preceding 3 hours as snow.., even if you were rain for 2 hours and 57 minutes and flipped 3 minutes before the panel....and I am sure it is purposeful as they are out to make money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GGEM isn't bad Its rain till mid afternoon Monday... then switches over to IP/FRZ RN... to maybe snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Its rain till mid afternoon Monday... then switches over to IP/FRZ RN... to maybe snow? The heaviest precip isn't rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The heaviest precip isn't rain. true... Mon is rain... night time looks to be all snow... i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Something I noticed: GFS has wind gusts past 35 mph Tuesday. With even a little ice that is going to cause serious problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 true... Mon is rain... night time looks to be all snow... i think GGEM is like 3" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Just had this mild run but cold again and really all the signs for extended warmth that have been showing up since early in the month have just turned out wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 its been nice snowing you snow. See ya dec 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 true... Mon is rain... night time looks to be all snow... i think It's a sleetfest. A mini Vday 2007 redux. I personally hate sleet. Would prefer ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's a sleetfest. A mini Vday 2007 redux. I personally hate sleet. Would prefer ZR. Agreed. I'd also rather go pure on P-type than mix, but I don't care what p-type that is as long as it isn't rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The Euro is that good huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Through 96 it looks like a fookin sauna. Hoping it'll pull a GGEM last minute.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 euro is awful. toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Anyone have the details from 96-120? I'm stuck with the crappy 24hr increments. I think it might be better than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's bad As bad as 12Z?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's ever so slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's somewhat SE of 12z, but not enough to matter much. Hopefully it's holding back a bit too much energy in the SW quadrant, as it sometimes does when troughs dig along the lee of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wait till you see rest of euro run looooool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wait till you see rest of euro run looooool Revenge of the Hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Revenge of the Hecs nothing seems to want to climb the coast this year !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6z GFS is coming in with a giant CAD wedge. Looks like a sleetfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sleet for most of DC/Baltimore, with a lot of Zr south. Either way, nasty. I'd rather have snow. Lets hope for a colder mid-layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's somewhat SE of 12z, but not enough to matter much. Hopefully it's holding back a bit too much energy in the SW quadrant, as it sometimes does when troughs dig along the lee of the Rockies. Its holding back energy out west and the PV is a bit further north, so weaker ridging/confluence. Its not really THAT far off from other guidance...subtle differences synoptically make a pretty big difference in sensible weather esp wrt the tight thermal gradient with this event. Some of the GEFS members have a warmer look and are pretty supportive of the Euro. By 0z tonight we will likely have an idea whether the slight shift towards colder on the Euro was a minor wobble, or a trend. If it stays locked in after today's runs, its going to be hard to bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It has become clear that if you are a snow sounding at a certain hour that Wxbell maps count ALL precip in the preceding 3 hours as snow.., even if you were rain for 2 hours and 57 minutes and flipped 3 minutes before the panel....and I am sure it is purposeful as they are out to make money back in dec I looked at soundings trying to figure out wtf was going on with those pos maps and its way worse then just what you said. What you describe is bad but at least would be close and only off about 2.5 hours at worst. First they seem to use 6 hour chunks not 3. Then I found locations that were above 0 at 850 both at the start and end of a panel and still the map showed snowfall. The only consistent factor seems the 2m temps have to be near freezing then they must use a thickness to estimate snow but its way off in places that are borderline and especially if there is a generally cold profile but with a warm layer. Either that or they use +.5 850 as their rain snow line. -1 is actually a better estimate of the pn/sn line in most cases. Basically it's as if they purposely programmed it to capture sleet as snow and JBs obnoxious rants where he assumes we are all stupid kind of confirm that but the label still says SNOWFALL not total frozen equivalent so it's bs no matter how many times he tells us how good it smells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Speaking of 2m temps, that's the one area where I am concerned the models could be wrong. While a CAD situation is looking very possible, the liquid/hour rate of this system could erode the CAD faster than the models indicate. Looking at the ECMWF, there is a very sharp line crossing our area, somewhere near the DC-Baltimore line as the storm approaches, and moving south of DC into Southern MD as the storm passes through. North of this line has winds from the north. South of this line has winds from the south. This wind pattern would reinforce CAD across most of MD as the storm moves through, while eroding CAD across the southern areas. Timing may be everything here, as the storm needs to arrive near diurnal minima to maximize CAD. If it arrives later, the south winds will warm up to the router 50 / I-95 corridors before the system moves in. If it arrives earlier, we might not have cooled down enough from the previous day's above freezing temperatures to get CAD. Attached is an image showing the ECMWF winds as the storm starts to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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