Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I didn't think the GFS was that bad actually. I'm speaking relative to the Euro. I want snow or crippling sleet...not 32 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm fine with where the GFS is right now. 18z is a tad meh but I dont pay that much attention to happy hour runs. Euro is worrisome, but the general look of the pattern has plenty of potential. This wont be warm rain. Might be 33 and rain, but likely going to run the gamut of p-types across the area, with the possibility of snow at the end. Still in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Still frozen....better than euro warm rain why do you care?...If I was going to be in the deep south during an event, I would be openly rooting for it to bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 why do you care?...If I was going to be in the deep south during an event, I would be openly rooting for it to bust... Because he cares about fellow snow weenies a lot more than you apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 why do you care?...If I was going to be in the deep south during an event, I would be openly rooting for it to bust... Lol....well I won't lie. Part of me is now pulling for a non snowstorm but part of me wants to pad stats. But missing a snow event would be devastating. That's why I kind of posted that euro looking jma map. First sucky jma map I've ever posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It's the 18z. I wasn't expecting some massive snow storm from it. Let's just score some frozen please. We may have to stick a fork in it though after tonight's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 We're no closer to a solution after today's runs. One day, the best scenario is shown. The next day, we are reminded that we live in the Mid-Atlantic in March. Anything can happen, and I know we're all hoping for a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yea, fork is in the drawer until Saturday at the earliest and even then. The biggest wildcard is the evolution of the low and how it comes out of the south. 18z gfs was cold enough early enough but the low was strung out and weak. A trend to a much wetter finish can happen late in the game in model world. I think every southern stream system trended wetter as we approached this year. Even the rainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 As long as we stay frozen, I'm happy. In fact I'm rooting for a 1999 ice storm redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yea, fork is in the drawer until Saturday at the earliest and even then. The biggest wildcard is the evolution of the low and how it comes out of the south. 18z gfs was cold enough early enough but the low was strung out and weak. A trend to a much wetter finish can happen late in the game in model world. I think every southern stream system trended wetter as we approached this year. Even the rainers. It may be a battle between models this time around. Actually that is what makes all of this interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 FWIW, the GGEM ensembles are very nice looking. Most bring us front end snow followed by CAD mix with plenty of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yea, fork is in the drawer until Saturday at the earliest and even then. The biggest wildcard is the evolution of the low and how it comes out of the south. 18z gfs was cold enough early enough but the low was strung out and weak. A trend to a much wetter finish can happen late in the game in model world. I think every southern stream system trended wetter as we approached this year. Even the rainers. I want a 2 day plus event to put a cap on this winter. We're due for a long event. Don't need it to be all snow either, just some decent accumulation will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Wanna laugh? Check out Weatherboy's Facebook page. He posted a WeatherBELL 12z EURO snow map. But there's a problem- HE POSTED A "SNOW DEPTH" MAP!!! It looks like NJ is getting 3-4 FEET! He is the most irresponsible "meteorologist" I've ever seen. https://www.facebook.com/theWeatherboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z gefs had about half the members take a decent slp track on monday. It's a nailbiter but not a dead deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 To add to this it looks like 1 maybe 2 outliers that are way north but as you said many decent tracks One thing is becoming kinda clear. The front end stuff isn't going to be snow for most of us unless things really shift. I'm ready to write that part off. All my chips are on for the lp making a decent pass. I really want to hit 40" this year. Only need 3" more. I hope this is the ticket. Once we get a week into march it really starts getting tough to snow in the dc burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgillesp Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's gonna be a squeaker (GEFS probabalistic temperature) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Fwiw & I know it's not much, but the 84 hr NAM is looking pretty good. Would definitely lead to a colder solution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Arctic boundary placement is next to impossible to predict this far out especially since the major features in play are not yet in the picture. Each model run will waffle north and south for the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I also thought the gfs members looked promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 0z GFS is marginally better than it was at 18z....definitely better...but subtle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 0z GFS is marginally better than it was at 18z....definitely better...but subtle... The tail is tricky. And a damn nailbiter. I'm smart enough to know we'll have the column but too dumb to know how to hedge with precip. Can we get .25+ as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 How much ice on the new run for iAd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It looks like the sfc 0c line keeps N+W of I-95 below zero the whole time, the 0c 850mb line strattles the M/D line until the wrap around. But it looks like even above that at 750 there is still a above 0 layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Decently colder than 18z. That's good... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lolwxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Seems like it's getting drier?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I can't wait for my cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The ice is starting to look ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 ALL THE P-TYPES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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