Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Time an event correctly and it becomes close to irrelevant. We had accumulating snow (including streets) on 3/25 last year with an almost perfect start time. Yeah, it all melted during the day, but who cares...snow is snow. yeah,..,.I mean obviously conditions for high impact snows deteriorate as we get toward March especially in the city, but I still want snow...I totally understand if people are over winter at this point...And it doesnt mean they dont like snow...But I'm not over it, and I know there are plenty of others like me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 It's valid now, but who cares?... I'm not saying I do, because I sure as **** don't, but just acknowledging it's valid to bring it up now vs. say in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 yeah,..,.I mean obviously conditions for high impact snows deteriorate as we get toward March especially in the city, but I still want snow...I totally understand if people are over winter at this point...And it doesnt mean they dont like snow...But I'm not over it, and I know there are plenty of others like me I want a threat a la April 96 style...that actually pans out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sun angle is an issue when we have a POS storm and marginal cold. Cold air wont be a problem this week. Just need a storm that can actually produce good rates for a few hours. It can snow and accumulate during the day In March. People make way too much of the SA crap. I could post images and show examples all day...here is 3/29/42 in the city...thump snow during the morning I believe...Of course there are examples of the opposite....2/28/05 and was frustrating until it got dark, and then it piled up pretty good...It also bears mentioning that 1/28 this year had trouble accumulating on the streets and sidewalk at 10 degrees at night in my hood...antecedent warm air is probably even more adverse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The Euro is about to go boom and all this talk will turn to full on EURO hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The Euro is about to go boom and all this talk will turn to full on EURO hugging.I won't believe it till DT gets 22k shares for a d10 HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I won't believe it till DT gets 22k shares for a d10 HECS. I think his worst quality is when he taunts people 5 days out for writing off a storm when the GFS shows something as if that means the storm will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 euro's still got it -- midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 euro's still got it -- midweek Monday morning should have some flakes too, but I doubt any accumulations at this point around or near I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 a bit wetter than 0z overall.. no hi rez maps yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 .24 dca by 1pm wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 700mb and 850 mb RH maps look pretty good Wed 12Z http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 .24 dca by 1pm wed. looks like a 2am to 10am event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 2" fine by me... stats padder as others have said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Monday morning should have some flakes too, but I doubt any accumulations at this point around or near I95 That event is over at like 2am tomorrow night and will be rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 looks like a 2am to 10am event Would be sticking snow. Prob don't go above 32 until it shuts off. It's disorganized still. Gets better consolidated for SNE but still a light event by their standards. Would be nice to see trends towards an early bloomer by mon-tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Looks like the gfs is just tanking right now like a bad sports team playing out the end of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Well 12z EC at least implies it will be really cold next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Well 12z EC at least implies it will be really cold next weekend Cold and dry next weekend. Maybe something the following week. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Ian's storm after storm call keeps looking better. GEFS looks ok for Wed too. Some decent solutions for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 March 3-4 looks good...wants to take a bit more westerly track than is ideal....GGEM has it too...long long way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 In the next 10 days there are 3 distinct waves that has the potential to affect us. Each has a chance at delivering frozen. I have a hard time believing we totally fail. We usually do well in lineups like this with at least one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I like the Wednesday possibility. I even thought that the 12z GFS came pretty close to a solution we may like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 12z Euro OP analogs..top 5 in order for each period for IAD Days 1-5 1.8" 1.2" MM T 0.0" Days 6-10 MM 0.0" 1.3" 0.0" 0.0" Days 11-15 MM T 2.7" 0.3" MM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yepp with a 3 to 4 inch snow pack still in place that may chill the boundary layer for the next [two or three] events. That ugly slushy brownish yellowish "snow pack" will be gone by the end of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Ian looks to be right about early March. Feb. 8 all over again. I think we will get accumulating snow from at least one of these storms, but you never know... Wednesday currently looks good for 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The period through the 4th still looks good. Even the 1st probably isn't really dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro is kinda suspect out on it's own. 18z NAM looks like a ots slider. I wish there were some other global on board. I'd even take the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 High-res NAM looks like northern areas might get an inch or so tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro is kinda suspect out on it's own. 18z NAM looks like a ots slider. I wish there were some other global on board. I'd even take the JMA The Canadian has a storm.....I don't really care what is on board,...I'm not going to expect a model that gave Ji 0.6" 6 hours before a KU to get a storm correctly or that had the 0.25" contour 150 miles to our south on 1/21 and gave us 0.40" in the 1st 3-5 hours of the event...I believe the GFS also had like 0.15" the day before 1/2 before it finally juiced up....the models arent going to be very good...best we can hope is that we have an event that will happen and that the models juice up within 24-36 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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