ravensrule Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 6" of snow at the end for DC...lol...at least this is fun to track..we need a complex system to show how bad we are at forecasting You are starting to look more and more like Martin Luther King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 You've turned into me from a month ago... heh yeah maybe so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Nice trends, wish there was more space in the second event. Whenever the models show more SNOW in Richmond than -81 at same latitude, it means ice hangs on longer than modeled. The trend this year has been for a s/w to be sharper when revolving around the PV. I feel that the last hurrah will cut more inland if all else goes to plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The trend this year has been for a s/w to be sharper when revolving around the PV. I feel that the last hurrah will cut more inland if all else goes to plan. so you think the euro is wrong then?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The trend this year has been for a s/w to be sharper when revolving around the PV. I feel that the last hurrah will cut more inland if all else goes to plan. Wouldn't shock me, as I will be the only local on the EC with below normal snow fall. Odd winter in that I've had a ton to track which is half the fun, but the results are fun. I'd be happy to get 6 inches and end up with Climo on the year. If it sharpens and just delays a little, I'd be happier. Inland is OK if that mother load of cold air makes here first. Funny, this could be the event of the year impact wise if everywhere gets ZR to IP to SN followed by 2-3 days at 20-25 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Wouldn't shock me, as I will be the only local on the EC with below normal snow fall. Odd winter in that I've had a ton to track which is half the fun, but the results are fun. I'd be happy to get 6 inches and end up with Climo on the year. If it sharpens and just delays a little, I'd be happier. Inland is OK if that mother load of cold air makes here first. Funny, this could be the event of the year impact wise if everywhere gets ZR to IP to SN followed by 2-3 days at 20-25 degrees. I think given the crazy gradient and alignment of the boundary, precip would verify a good bit further West even with a slp track like the 12z gfs run. It was elongated and kind disorganized and still looked good. LP starts it's trek basically on the gulf coast of LA. It won't be dry. I'll gladly take the gfs temp depiction and let whatever happens happen after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GGEM is a big snowstorm, though it starts warmer than the GFS. Difference is the initial wave of low pressure riding into the block which looks iffy to me. Still probably 95% frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I think given the crazy gradient and alignment of the boundary, precip would verify a good bit further West even with a slp track like the 12z gfs run. It was elongated and kind disorganized and still looked good. LP starts it's trek basically on the gulf coast of LA. It won't be dry. I'll gladly take the gfs temp depiction and let whatever happens happen after that. Agree- we will be nigh and day-- where DC north is below freezing up to 24 hours before I am--- and while DC may end as a decent snow,will be a big struggle down this way. You never cool down the mid levels as modeled in these events. It was easy in the past to always undercut the surface and warm up the mid levels. Maybe not so true now, but has to always be considered. (models have gotten better at surface temps) Models have this WEIRD warm toungue shooting up near the BR-- don't think that's legit. But, PD2-- RIchmond was ice 3-4 hours before I was here in LYH and Roanoke-- HOURS later. I think we had flipped to sleet and was 25 before the cold reached roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Damn, just saw the GFS. NIce, but probably a little unrealistic. Liking the trends. Hopefully we can keep trending the ice out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 GGEM is a big snowstorm, though it starts warmer than the GFS. Difference is the initial wave of low pressure riding into the block which looks iffy to me. Still probably 95% frozen. Ha, yeah..GGEM is a pummeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Agree- we will be nigh and day-- where DC north is below freezing up to 24 hours before I am--- and while DC may end as a decent snow,will be a big struggle down this way. You never cool down the mid levels as modeled in these events. It was easy in the past to always undercut the surface and warm up the mid levels. Maybe not so true now, but has to always be considered. (models have gotten better at surface temps) Models have this WEIRD warm toungue shooting up near the BR-- don't think that's legit. But, PD2-- RIchmond was ice 3-4 hours before I was here in LYH and Roanoke-- HOURS later. I think we had flipped to sleet and was 25 before the cold reached roanoke. Ah, I forgot where Forest was. For some reason I had CHO area stuck in my head. You would want to root for a stronger and more organized lp to crash things and get the midlevels right. The gfs isn't all that aggressive with lp development. We'll see what the euro says. I checked the ind euro members for lyh. Some snowy members but not very bullish overall down there. I hope you get plastered for selfish and friendly reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ah, I forgot where Forest was. For some reason I had CHO area stuck in my head. You would want to root for a stronger and more organized lp to crash things and get the midlevels right. The gfs isn't all that aggressive with lp development. We'll see what the euro says. I checked the ind euro members for lyh. Some snowy members but not very bullish overall down there. I hope you get plastered for selfish and friendly reasons. Hah, thanks. Yeah, we have a little hope on wave 2... and perhaps a faster bleed of cold air on round 1. It takes its sweet ole time heading south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ah, I forgot where Forest was. For some reason I had CHO area stuck in my head. You would want to root for a stronger and more organized lp to crash things and get the midlevels right. The gfs isn't all that aggressive with lp development. We'll see what the euro says. I checked the ind euro members for lyh. Some snowy members but not very bullish overall down there. I hope you get plastered for selfish and friendly reasons. Well there is a big subdivision with "Forest" in its name here in CHO. Always on the frigging borderline here and never good with pure W to E systems. Needs more southerly dig.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ha, yeah..GGEM is a pummeling Lol it's actually a foot+ of snow for us (1.2" frozen QPF). Surprisingly, about 60% of the GEFS individual members are now going with the GGEM solution. Big shift from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The origin of this storm with its El Nino flare should keep this from trending toward a suppressed solution, like Saturday's wave did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The origin of this storm with its El Nino flare should keep this from trending toward a suppressed solution, like Saturday's wave did. so you like the idea of a crippling storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z GGEM meteogram for DCA -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us 13mm snow and 13mm sleet with a dash of rain and a sprinkle of freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Some of the GFS members hold energy back and weaken the first wave, they blow up the second, which would be much better for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I noticed on this GFS run that a piece of the pv rotated down and got involved with the sw. Am I seeing this right ? Bob, Matt, Hm ? Any feed back is much appreciated . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z GGEM meteogram for DCA -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us 13mm snow and 13mm sleet with a dash of rain and a sprinkle of freezing rain PHL is all snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z GGEM meteogram for DCA -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us 13mm snow and 13mm sleet with a dash of rain and a sprinkle of freezing rain just saw it.,.lol..8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I noticed on this GFS run that a piece of the pv rotated down and got involved with the sw. Am I seeing this right ? Bob, Matt, Hm ? Any feed back is much appreciated . yup..it's actually close to a triple phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I noticed on this GFS run that a piece of the pv rotated down and got involved with the sw. Am I seeing this right ? Bob, Matt, Hm ? Any feed back is much appreciated . Yea, the bowling ball over the great lakes is a new development. Not sure what to make of it. It's an outlier for now. We'll see how things go the next couple days. All guidance is pointing towards a pretty decent precip maker as it is. And the trends have been unusually friendly the last day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 yup..it's actually close to a triple phase Thanks Matt. I'm new here. But have been following weather all my life. Just didn't want to hype anything. Hope this is a trend we see. Really appreciate all the info and knowledge you provide . Between you, Bob C. and HM I have learned a lot . Thanks again. Here's hoping for KU to end the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The 12z GEFS are more bullish on the SW trekking through the lakes. Not sure if that's why more of the members are trying to cut our low west, but they've taken on more of a ZR look with less in the way of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yea, the bowling ball over the great lakes is a new development. Not sure what to make of it. It's an outlier for now. We'll see how things go the next couple days. All guidance is pointing towards a pretty decent precip maker as it is. And the trends have been unusually friendly the last day or so. Hey fellow rocktonian. Thanks for the info. And here's hoping we are shoveling for days next week. Hope the euro depicts something similar with pv interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GGEM pushes the cold down here faster. (is there an echo in here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Am I missing something? The WeatherBELL snow map (yeah, I know lol) for the GGEM show only 1-2"... What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 any play by play on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Man, this gradient is gonna be uber-tight. A mere 20 miles could make all the difference. My Euro maps are lousy but looks slower and a bit more meridional than the GFS/GGEM. Maybe a precursor to a west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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