Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 We all know though that whatever can go wrong usually does go wrong here so i don't see the sense in always doing that.We all know how to read a model verbatim too but that's a lot of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS trending colder and further south with the lp development. Every run has been a tick better. Indeed. Precip begins as sleet looks like at 108-111. Each movement south helps us better in the snow dept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Comparing 06z to 12z this run looks a bit better with the surface freezing line at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Looks like another ice storm setup at 120 for most of us 1052 H in early March moving into MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Big time CAD on the GFS, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is really drilling in the low level cold overnight sun. into mon. morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Strong CAD Monday afternoon... it actually gets colder as the afternoon (falling through the 20s) goes on and the ZR continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 BY 132 850s 0 line finally though DC but remains to be seen how much if any precip is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is a really big jump at the mid levels in the middle of the country. The complex and drawn out process is going to give models fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Snowing monday night 1am and its 20 degrees at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 wxbell precip. type maps still show mostly a sleet signature from DC northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 LOL by 141 a new wave is coming up and this one would be all snow..........how I wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This is a very important step with the evolution of the lp coming up Colder and slower. You could see it coming early too so it probably isn't some freaky blip in run over run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is a really big jump at the mid levels in the middle of the country. The complex and drawn out process is going to give models fits. This is going to be a fun event to track. Many possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I have been asleep for 4 days with the worst ear infection I have ever had in my life. Dont even know how much snow I got over the last 3 days. So I have some catching up to do. What have I missed? The GFS is a 3 day frozen event. What a way to end the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 heh....GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 A 2nd coastal gets going by hr144. Man I love this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I love this event and what could go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This definitely is a colder run on the front side. Certainly a move in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z GFS sending us into the icebox... by 7am Tues, we are all in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 6" of snow at the end for DC...lol...at least this is fun to track..we need a complex system to show how bad we are at forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Still snowing at edit 12z 18z on March 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I think it's fine to acknowledge that everyone here roots for cold and snow so cold and snow posts get a lot less investigation than those which look at what might go wrong. You've turned into me from a month ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 6" of snow at the end for DC...lol...at least this is fun to track..we need a complex system to show how bad we are at forecasting Its a silly, but nice run. Sleet to ice to snow... temp falls through the 20s into the teens as we transition from ice to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 6" of snow at the end for DC...lol...at least this is fun to track..we need a complex system to show how bad we are at forecasting I think we have a good handle on the general idea. Being specific with this....lol. Not even going to try. Heck of a great lakes bowling ball this run. That's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 single digits Tues night... that will lock in the entire pack of ice/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Some similarities to this system and the one in March 2007. Setup is different but anomalous cold situation only 2 weeks earlier and potentially much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 FWIW the GEFS made a big improvement @ 6z..many of the individual members are colder than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 To my eyes, GFS clown map showing a nice 8-12 area wide by March 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Nice trends, wish there was more space in the second event. Whenever the models show more SNOW in Richmond than -81 at same latitude, it means ice hangs on longer than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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