mappy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Come on now. You can handle another good KU one more time. Let's go for 80 inches. Then we can call it a winter. i said i would be fine with snow, the slop fest of sleet/fzr, i will gladly pass on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 We could house swap but I jackpotted today so Rockchester might not be spared either. On a disco note.... 6z gefs was a marked improvement. Solutions are mixed of course but there are some nice ones with both the waa stuff and really nice lp track. If we pull off all snow then I'm done too until at least the follow up storm coming into focus. Yea, we need a 75 - 100 mile shift south from where it is modeled now for a mostly snow solution . I've lived in Rockville since 1963 and we have never had an crippling ice storm in March. Don't think that's happening. Here's aiming for a 40"+ winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yea, we need a 75 - 100 mile shift south from where it is modeled now for a mostly snow solution . I've lived in Rockville since 1963 and we have never had an crippling ice storm in March. Don't think that's happening. Here's aiming for a 40"+ winter. Pretty nice low level cold push on the models. I could see it being mostly sleet. I agree about march ice. It could happen at night. Pretty anomalous airmass but during the day seems highly unlikely. Guidance is tightening up with surface/mid level depiction. And we're really close. It would take much of a shift to get some snow in the waa stuff. Mixy is the safest call for the early part. Can't see it being all one ptype but that's just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Pretty nice low level cold push on the models. I could see it being mostly sleet. I agree about march ice. It could happen at night. Pretty anomalous airmass but during the day seems highly unlikely. Guidance is tightening up with surface/mid level depiction. And we're really close. It would take much of a shift to get some snow in the waa stuff. Mixy is the safest call for the early part. Can't see it being all one ptype but that's just a hunch. the heights are really high though for snow...freezing rain at 29-31 during the day in March isnt going to cut it. Has to be snow or sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 the heights are really high though for snow...freezing rain at 29-31 during the day in March isnt going to cut it. Has to be snow or sleet agreed. As depicted now we are on the losing side of the snow boundary for the waa part. Take a look at the 6z gefs members though. There are enough that push the boundary far enough south to at least consider the possibility. Odds are against yes, but there are 2 important things to track. How much cold hp can work down on the front and strength and track of the slp. I think odds are tilting towards finishing as snow. How much is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 agreed. As depicted now we are on the losing side of the snow boundary for the waa part. Take a look at the 6z gefs members though. There are enough that push the boundary far enough south to at least consider the possibility. Odds are against yes, but there are 2 important things to track. How much cold hp can work down on the front and strength and track of the slp. I think odds are tilting towards finishing as snow. How much is anyone's guess. no comments on the euro warm noreaster for March 7-9. I think its bunk but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 no comments on the euro warm noreaster for March 7-9. I think its bunk but whatever ensembles are colder. Too far out to worry either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I would be careful with dismissing zr here. The air coming next couple of days will offset the late winter sun in terms of pavements. A steady non heavy rain Sunday night early Monday would have no problem glazing. During the daylight hours, yes the sun will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I would be careful with dismissing zr here. The air coming next couple of days will offset the late winter sun in terms of pavements. A steady non heavy rain Sunday night early Monday would have no problem glazing. During the daylight hours, yes the sun will help. Do you think we are still in the game for a shift towards snow on the waa part? Part of me says not a chance but it seems close enough that it wouldn't require a huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Do you think we are still in the game for a shift towards snow on the waa part? Part of me says not a chance but it seems close enough that it wouldn't require a huge shift. I know you didn't ask me, but I think we are definitely still in the game for snow. But HM's caution does have some merit....I think most of us are skeptical of zr and rightfully so, but with the cold air press as modeled, it can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Agreed, It really was a terrible post. Nobody knows either way right now.That's a bit extreme, it was logical at the least. I definitely don't expect 1" of ice but I said we could get ice. Big ice storms are hard ... Light rates are better than heavy but until we are 25 below normal I'll be a little skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Do you think we are still in the game for a shift towards snow on the waa part? Part of me says not a chance but it seems close enough that it wouldn't require a huge shift. Yeah I think you're going to have to start warm but I think you should watch for Monday trending faster with a changeover. I could see a rain and freezing rain over to ice at night, possibly turning to sleet and ultimately snow Monday. The sun's effect could be trumped because the heavier rates and cooling mid levels would change things to snow or sleet during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I know you didn't ask me, but I think we are definitely still in the game for snow. But HM's caution does have some merit....I think most of us are skeptical of zr and rightfully so, but with the cold air press as modeled, it can't be ruled out. Obviously NW burbs are more threatened with first round but these low levels could keep trending cooler. The mid levels may have to wait until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 That's a bit extreme, it was logical at the least. I definitely don't expect 1" of ice but I said we could get ice. Big ice storms are hard ... Light rates are better than heavy but until we are 25 below normal I'll be a little skeptical. Didn't you just say last night that you can't see how anybody can be confident in any solution one way or the other? I mean...I guess there was a lot of caveats in there..."odds are", if, etc...but it sure did sound confident, i.e "not much frozen" etc. I'm not sure where you're going with the ice storm part...I think we all agree with that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Didn't you just say last night that you can't see how anybody can be confident in any solution one way or the other? I mean...I guess there was a lot of caveats in there..."odds are", if, etc...but it sure did sound confident, i.e "not much frozen" etc. I'm not sure where you're going with the ice storm part...I think we all agree with that part. Yes.. basically. I think it's fine to say we don't know the story at this range. I was referring to you saying it was a terrible post.. which seemed a little harsh. I don't think it was thoughtless or anything. I agree with HM for the most part for now, but honestly it's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Agreed, It really was a terrible post. Nobody knows either way right now. Yeah the models have not underestimated temps inside the beltway at all this year... gotta add something beyond regurgitation of models. It is usually a safe bet to add a few degrees to DCA and points inside the beltway when the models show temps around 32 verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yes.. basically. I think it's fine to say we don't know the story at this range. I was referring to you saying it was a terrible post.. which seemed a little harsh. I don't think it was thoughtless or anything. I agree with HM for the most part for now, but honestly it's just a guess. Yeah I'm guessing right now too. The situation clearly is long with changing precip types. Keep an eye on the core of it Monday trending colder. Zr threat would reduce but sleet and snow potential goes up. I could see that part still trending cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yes.. basically. I think it's fine to say we don't know the story at this range. I was referring to you saying it was a terrible post.. which seemed a little harsh. I don't think it was thoughtless or anything. I agree with HM for the most part for now, but honestly it's just a guess. Prob should have been more directed at me I was the one last night talking about ice accums on a 5 days away event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 it was alot easier when the euro showed 12 inches of snow 4 days ago for March 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah I'm guessing right now too. The situation clearly is long with changing precip types. Keep an eye on the core of it Monday trending colder. Zr threat would reduce but sleet and snow potential goes up. I could see that part still trending cooler. Based on the general evolution it seems we have to root for zr/sleet if we want to get snow with slp passing south of us. If the boundary sets up too far north then it would probably translate into a less favorable slp track and of course temps become an enemy. would be great if models start tending stronger and colder with the lp. I'm in on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 it was alot easier when the euro showed 12 inches of snow 4 days ago for March 3-4 Remember last week when certain people hyped up a few model runs for this Saturday? Lol... Saturday at best, what...partly sunny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Didn't you just say last night that you can't see how anybody can be confident in any solution one way or the other? I mean...I guess there was a lot of caveats in there..."odds are", if, etc...but it sure did sound confident, i.e "not much frozen" etc. I'm not sure where you're going with the ice storm part...I think we all agree with that part. Of course we don't know what's going to happnen. That's why we are discussing. Isn't that the whole point. Trying to get a clearer view of how the scenario might play out in consideration of what the models are showing as well as some local climo knowledge. Anyway, seems redundant to constantly add the phrase "but of course we don't know what's going to happen" to every post. All these posts about epic sleet storm and power lines falling down are probably more worthless posts than mine was. Anyway, back to the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah the models have not underestimated temps inside the beltway at all this year... gotta add something beyond regurgitation of models. It is usually a safe bet to add a few degrees to DCA and points inside the beltway when the models show temps around 32 verbatim. Yep. The raw outputs are likely bunk to some degree. MOS may be too warm but it is currently 33/43 for Monday at DCA. Doesn't scream dangerous situation heh. We prob need more cold trending either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Of course we don't know what's going to happnen. That's why we are discussing. Isn't that the whole point. Trying to get a clearer view of how the scenario might play out in consideration of what the models are showing as well as some local climo knowledge. Anyway, seems redundant to constantly add the phrase "but of course we don't know what's going to happen" to every post. All these posts about epic sleet storm and power lines falling down are probably more worthless posts than mine was. Anyway, back to the weather. You're right, they are...but I think those who have said epic sleet storm, etc were talking in the context of what the model showed verbatim. I don't think many here are betting on an epic ice storm....actually, it's quite the opposite and if anything we're probably being overly dismissive of the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 You're right, they are...but I think those who have said epic sleet storm, etc were talking in the context of what the model showed verbatim. I don't think many here are betting on an epic ice storm....actually, it's quite the opposite and if anything we're probably being overly dismissive of the idea. Ding ding ding we have a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah the models have not underestimated temps inside the beltway at all this year... gotta add something beyond regurgitation of models. It is usually a safe bet to add a few degrees to DCA and points inside the beltway when the models show temps around 32 verbatim. Ugh, can we at least get within NAM pseudo-range before making assumptions and panicking? 1) Models have busted in both directions, actually. 2) It's too early to know the timing of the Hp ejection/CAD push relative to the ejection of the disturbance/arrival of precip. 3) It's also too early to know the degree of deepening and final Lp track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I think it's fine to acknowledge that everyone here roots for cold and snow so cold and snow posts get a lot less investigation than those which look at what might go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I think it's fine to acknowledge that everyone here roots for cold and snow so cold and snow posts get a lot less investigation than those which look at what might go wrong. We all know though that whatever can go wrong usually does go wrong here so i don't see the sense in always doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Decent dual HP's at 105 across Plains and NE (re 12z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Decent dual HP's at 105 across Plains and NE (re 12z GFS) GFS trending colder and further south with the lp development. Every run has been a tick better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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