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Late February/March Medium - Long Range Disco


stormtracker

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Euro ensembles very close to op in terms of Low pressure track.  Temps also very close to op with 0 degree 850 line pretty much lined up along 40 N on Sunday night and slowly sinking south through the day on Monday.  After that, the op and ensembles diverge with the op really warming up towards the end of next week (with another storm) and the ensembles remaining cold.  If the ensembles are to be believed, the end of next week could be fun.

 

MDstorm

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GFS certainly depicts a storm that could work out if you have latitude or elevation on your side.  Inside the beltway we have neither. Also looks to be relatively light precipitation for 48 hours which would suggest off and on precipitation which generally doesn't do much for keeping the surface cool.  At this point, anybody south of PA/MD border without elevation on their side probably isn't going to get much frozen despite the verbatim surface depiction, as Ian so eloquently mentioned on more than one occassion. With the Euro apparently going slightly warmer tonight, odds aren't looking good for DCA area.

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GFS certainly depicts a storm that could work out if you have latitude or elevation on your side. Inside the beltway we have neither. Also looks to be relatively light precipitation for 48 hours which would suggest off and on precipitation which generally doesn't do much for keeping the surface cool. At this point, anybody south of PA/MD border without elevation on their side probably isn't going to get much frozen despite the verbatim surface depiction, as Ian so eloquently mentioned on more than one occassion. With the Euro apparently going slightly warmer tonight, odds aren't looking good for DCA area.

This reads like a bunch of baseless speculation, especially at this stage of the game.

What makes you think the GFS and ECMWF are off with their sfc depiction? Not that it'd surprise me if things shifts 50-75 miles given the tight gradient, but verbatim we have a low tracking to our south with an unseasonably cold airmass wedging in.

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If the 6Z GFS is right we will not have power for a month around here, a crapload of ZR. Over 1".

 

 

Models are converging on a drawn out event and a nice cad signal. Pretty strong cold hp in a good spot. If I had to take a wag right now I would say zr/ip early monday morning then prob rain monday afternoon and hopefully a period of snow to cap it off overnight monday into tues. 

 

SLP is tracking south on all models now. Pretty nice sign at this lead to get some snow to close it out. 

 

 

ETA: Could be a lot of sleet for someone. Not just saying this to make leesburg happy. 6z gfs ptype maps on wxbell show some heavy sleet across central and n md/wv panhandle/ da burg

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Models are converging on a drawn out event and a nice cad signal. Pretty strong cold hp in a good spot. If I had to take a wag right now I would say zr/ip early monday morning then prob rain monday afternoon and hopefully a period of snow to cap it off overnight monday into tues. 

 

SLP is tracking south on all models now. Pretty nice sign at this lead to get some snow to close it out. 

As long as it is mostly frozen i will be happy.

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no. i'm over winter. i'm officially in the get this crap outta here mode.

 

We could house swap but I jackpotted today so Rockchester might not be spared either. 

 

 

On a disco note....

 

6z gefs was a marked improvement. Solutions are mixed of course but there are some nice ones with both the waa stuff and really nice lp track. If we pull off all snow then I'm done too until at least the follow up storm coming into focus. 

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We could house swap but I jackpotted today so Rockchester might not be spared either. 

 

 

On a disco note....

 

6z gefs was a marked improvement. Solutions are mixed of course but there are some nice ones with both the waa stuff and really nice lp track. If we pull off all snow then I'm done too until at least the follow up storm coming into focus. 

 

I think you meant Rockton ;)

 

its all good, I can deal with snow. But I'll pass on the sleet/frz business.

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