Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 True... but the dual H structure across the Northern US helps lock in the cold air at the surface... at face value... its like 0.50-0.75" ice for Monday. Hopefully we can trend that to snow... its the midlevels (700 to 850) that are torchy torchNot sure why you keep taking raw qpf and turning it into all ice but I guess some things can never be learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I was just saying warm rain is off the podium. Cold rain is in bronze position every storm. Gfs darn near had tstorms overhead yesterday. I'm starting to believe. Euro ens looked pretty good. There's a lot of cold hp n of us and plenty of time to boogie. Let's do this man 00z GFS (aka Goofy) would like us to enjoy 1"+ ice. If we can cool down the mid-levels... we enjoy nice snowstorm. Nice run tonight as you have mentioned Tues morning we are all in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is a decent ice storm for a bit....but we all know how ice and March go. IF* and it's a very big if, you get that synoptic set up with the PV and 1035 HP JUst north of NY state, you'd get ice/snow no problem in Early march, even down your guys way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 IF* and it's a very big if, you get that synoptic set up with the PV and 1035 HP JUst north of NY state, you'd get ice/snow no problem in Early march, even down your guys way. snow, sure...ice, eh... I can't remember a decent March ice storm here..and I've been here all of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Very nice h5 pattern at 183... hope we can cash in on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Again we are talking really specific stuff at d5+. The storm probably won't look like it does now anyway. If it's going to trend it will trend colder/flatter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 HM has highlighted this potential and the GFS is trending that way. Things are looking much better as we are now down to 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Not sure why you keep taking raw qpf and turning it into all ice but I guess some things can never be learned. Because verbatim thats what it is... granted it could be sleet... but the sounding supports ice. Yes, I am being stupid a bit I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is 2 days of precip, most of it frozen. Sure. I can't imagine zr during daylight but we're days away from knowing either way. Euro was cold at the surface but midlevels sucked. A 75 mile shift in the euro op run and we shovel. I might stay up. I tried last couple but slept like a baby instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Because verbatim thats what it is... granted it could be sleet... but the sounding supports ice. Yes, I am being stupid a bit I guess...Carry on. The only things i can think of now are mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 I can't imagine zr during daylight but we're days away from knowing either way. Euro was cold at the surface but midlevels sucked. A 75 mile shift in the euro op run and we shovel. I might stay up. I tried last couple but slept like a baby instead I think I'll stay up....join me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 snow, sure...ice, eh... I can't remember a decent March ice storm here..and I've been here all of my life. A good part of the region even inside the beltways had a respectable ice event in early March 1989. It was more sleet than zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Carry on. The only things i can think of now are mean. Its 1130 on a Tues night and I can't fall asleep... so this is helping me I dunno if I will make it for the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Again we are talking really specific stuff at d5+. The storm probably won't look like it does now anyway. If it's going to trend it will trend colder/flatter anyway. Yep, I agree. Ensemble guidance has leaned cooler and further south than the ops. Night vs day timing is pretty important this time of year too. Scoring mid levels and losing surface sucks as much as raindrops at 31.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 A good part of the region even inside the beltways had a respectable ice event in early March 1989. It was more sleet than zr. Hmm, ok. Don't remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yep, I agree. Ensemble guidance has leaned cooler and further south than the ops. Night vs day timing is pretty important this time of year too. Scoring mid levels and losing surface sucks as much as raindrops at 31.5.Well cooler mainly above. Doubtful we get much colder at the sfc .. Pretty cold as is probably aided by the nonstop precip. It's a weird event. A long duration ice storm is probably the least likely scenario tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I think I'll stay up....join me I'm in. This whole evolution is so complicated here that it's worth the digest. Good learning experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I can't imagine zr during daylight but we're days away from knowing either way. Euro was cold at the surface but midlevels sucked. A 75 mile shift in the euro op run and we shovel. I might stay up. I tried last couple but slept like a baby instead This is some serious cold by March standards even for early in the month so significant ice is unlikely but with the power of some of the modeled highs coming down who knows. Usually March is either rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Well cooler mainly above. Doubtful we get much colder at the sfc .. Pretty cold as is probably aided by the nonstop precip. It's a weird event. A long duration ice storm is probably the least likely scenario tho. Euro is really cold at the surface so that's suspect in itself. But the gfs just latched on to the cold funnel. Like amped said earlier that I agreed with, 12z gfs surface temps didnt really jive with the setup. Way too warm with cold hp anchored n. And I totally agree that long duration zr is a red headed stepchild. I'll only believe it after I lose power. Sleet is more likely imo. I'll just hug the ggem and change the oil in my slowblower this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Its 1130 on a Tues night and I can't fall asleep... so this is helping me I dunno if I will make it for the EURO It's cool.. it's not impossible to get an ice storm ever really if it's cold. But the solution here is probably not right. I'm dubious of a two day event with it staying below freezing the whole time tho. That's hard to do in January. I know this is a weather forum and we discuss models it just seems like we never learn certain lessons.. Overall the wx community has moved to just regurgitating them on the whole which kind of sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hmm, ok. Don't remember that one. The forecast was for rain to change to snow accumulating 3-6 with some areas up to 8 or so. The forecast was a bust. It never flipped to all snow until the very end only producing maybe an inch. After the rain turned to sleet it stayed that way for most areas. the following 2 days remained cloudy and very cold. Maybe someone else remembers this storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Going off what Ian said, its an h120 depiction, but regardless of sfc depiction, I like the direction were headed. Think the GEM could actually be more right than wrong in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 00z GGEM 144 on the crappy B&W maps -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Huge 1050 H getting ready to come into the Northern Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Going off what Ian said, its an h120 depiction, but regardless of sfc depiction, I like the direction were headed. Think the GEM could actually be more right than wrong in this situation.I dunno how anyone can have much confidence in any evolution of the system. It looks like it'll be cold at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I am digging the 00z GFS 2 day slop storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I dunno how anyone can have much confidence in any evolution of the system. It looks like it'll be cold at least.I just like the synoptic likelihood that cold hp's will be intruding. Can't hurt us. Trend has been colder. We keep going and we get nice overrunning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm pretty sure it is safe to say we get at least some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 From Maue's Twitter: Air masses clash of epic proportions. 2mT Anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I just like the synoptic likelihood that cold hp's will be intruding. Can't hurt us. Trend has been colder. We keep going and we get nice overrunning snows. Tom T is already honking and in my past experiences when he honks this early that is usually a very good sign that we get something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I just like the synoptic likelihood that cold hp's will be intruding. Can't hurt us. Trend has been colder. We keep going and we get nice overrunning snows.Well it is the storm after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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