Ji Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Gfs is clearly the new dr no. All winter long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Gotta love the EURO ensembles. I read that the GGEM is going to 4DVAR soon & RGEM is going to 5km resolution & run to 60 hours, can anyone back this up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Gfs is clearly the new dr no. All winter long Bizarro world. The funny thing is that the gfs has said no at short range and it snowed anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Gotta love the EURO ensembles. I read that the GGEM is going to 4DVAR soon & RGEM is going to 5km resolution & run to 60 hours, can anyone back this up? DT made that statement today, is that where your getting this from?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 DT made that statement today, is that where your getting this from?? A friend told me, he probably got it from that.... Another thing, a lot of people bash the RGEM, but I'm pretty sure it runs on 4DVAR...it is a really good underrated model. I'd take it over the NAM any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 A friend told me, he probably got it from that.... Another thing, a lot of people bash the RGEM, but I'm pretty sure it runs on 4DVAR...it is a really good underrated model. I'd take it over the NAM any day. wouldn't it be surprising if the GFS and NAM became obsolete!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 A friend told me, he probably got it from that.... Another thing, a lot of people bash the RGEM, but I'm pretty sure it runs on 4DVAR...it is a really good underrated model. I'd take it over the NAM any day. RGEM had some good runs for the HECS earlier this month. Had one run where VA was a total dry slot and it about verified-- or the general idea where all the WAA was WAY into WV, PA, NY--etc. Having it run to 48 makes it seem better then the NAM's crazy ideas a 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I think the only storm the GFS got right this season was the 1/21 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I think the only storm the GFS got right this season was the 1/21 event. not really...it was ok...if you remember it stayed south at the end when every other model moved north and had like 0.25" down to RIC lol....It also was too wet, because it gave us that ludicrous 0.35" or whatever in the 1st few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 not really...it was ok...if you remember it stayed south at the end when every other model moved north and had like 0.25" down to RIC lol....It also was too wet, because it gave us that ludicrous 0.35" or whatever in the 1st few hours... I thought the GFS and NAM were locked in with that storm. Maybe they did well with northern portions, but not so well with the D.C. area. It's funny because I actually got the exact amount of snow the GFS was showing for a few days before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I thought the GFS and NAM were locked in with that storm. Maybe they did well with northern portions, but not so well with the D.C. area. It's funny because I actually got the exact amount of snow the GFS was showing for a few days before... It did better than the euro from say 48-72 hours, but was still too far south...it missed the north jog at the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 not really...it was ok...if you remember it stayed south at the end when every other model moved north and had like 0.25" down to RIC lol....It also was too wet, because it gave us that ludicrous 0.35" or whatever in the 1st few hours... That was the only storm that was well-forecast this year. Every other one either boomed or busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 EUro is similar to the GFS at H5. The difference is on how much the shallow arctic air can suppress the surface low track and development. Hopefully with the blocking, the high is stronger than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Gfs making a decisive move towards a colder solution for Mon. On a side note...sat has some legs for a threepeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Gfs making a decisive move towards a colder solution for Mon. On a side note...sat has some legs for a threepeat Dual H structure helps... and nice 1052 H at 126 in MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Gotta love the EURO ensembles. I read that the GGEM is going to 4DVAR soon & RGEM is going to 5km resolution & run to 60 hours, can anyone back this up? Ggem has been 4dvar for a long time now. Navgem is also 4dvar. The devil is obviously in the details in terms of what that actually means for quality and model performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Gfs making a decisive move towards a colder solution for Mon. On a side note...sat has some legs for a threepeat It is, but it's still annoying me a bit. It'll trend colder, especially given that the other globals have/are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Big time ice storm on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It is, but it's still annoying me a bit. It'll trend colder, especially given that the other globals have/are. Still pretty nasty ice storm Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is a decent ice storm for a bit....but we all know how ice and March go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Still pretty nasty ice storm Monday Yup, just saw that. Highly skeptical of ice...but I guess we can only take away that it's trending colder, which is good. I'm encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It is, but it's still annoying me a bit. It'll trend colder, especially given that the other globals have/are. This was a big shift. I think were in for a buffet. I like sleet too. It's slowly becoming more clear. Warm rain is off the podium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Damn, still going at 153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is a decent ice storm for a bit....but we all know how ice and March go. True... but the dual H structure across the Northern US helps lock in the cold air at the surface... at face value... its like 0.50-0.75" ice for Monday. Hopefully we can trend that to snow... its the midlevels (700 to 850) that are torchy torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 This was a big shift. I think were in for a buffet. I like sleet too. It's slowly becoming more clear. Warm rain is off the podium Not as confident as you yet to declare it off the plate, but I like our chances for mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Parade of H's in the Northern Plains at 156... very nice... keeps the cold air locked in and its not going anywhere this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 lol, still going at 159 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 00z GFS is a very lovely dinner buffet of IP/FRZ RN from 120-165 for DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Not as confident as you yet to declare it off the plate, but I like our chances for mostly frozen. I was just saying warm rain is off the podium. Cold rain is in bronze position every storm. Gfs darn near had tstorms overhead yesterday. I'm starting to believe. Euro ens looked pretty good. There's a lot of cold hp n of us and plenty of time to boogie. Let's do this man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 I was just saying warm rain is off the podium. Cold rain is in bronze position every storm. Gfs darn near had tstorms overhead yesterday. I'm starting to believe. Euro ens looked pretty good. There's a lot of cold hp n of us and plenty of time to boogie. Let's do this man GFS is 2 days of precip, most of it frozen. Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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