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Late February/March Medium - Long Range Disco


stormtracker

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He needs to setup a Facebook page so weenies can follow someone who knows what they are talking about.

 

I'd rather avoid that whole scene, really.

 

We don't do ice in mid-January. In March, its rain.

 

I hear what you are saying. However, some consideration should be made for ZR potential when you are dealing with anomalous cold and nighttime precip though. 

I'm all for more progressive for Monday.  Don't you think the March 6-10 window is promising, though?

 

MDstorm

The 3/6-10 window I already highlighted as the PNA-deep trough window and possibly something. However, I thought that some more significant would hold just beyond this period. I could be very wrong. The ECMWF is definitely impressive looking, esp. with the NAO situation.

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Some of the NY posters are comparing it to PDII, in other words don't listen to them....Also, that damn Canadian snowfall hype map is a map of the 2 storms combined with is skewing the totals...I'm not even as bad as some of these hypsters. 

 

it has pdII potential for someone. Big long fetch of overrunning way out in front then the lp tracks up. I was lucky with pdII. I scored handily with both pieces. I was living about 25 miles nw of DC at the time though. 

 

OTOH- I remember PDII having a pretty vigorous vort/ull. Definitely not the case here. 

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euro ens mean looks like the OP at a quick glance...surface low moves south of us...maybe 0.5" on mean

 

Yea, not much extra you can take away from the ens run. Looks basically like the op with the general setup. Gets pretty muddy down the line. There is precip in every panel from after the mon event through d10. Nothing heavy or anything. Just indicative of uncertainty. 

 

Obviously we need to pray the boundary sets up further south as quickly as possible. 

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The 18 z GFS is in prohibition mode for happy hour.  Warm anywhere south of SNE for Sunday-Monday.  Luckily it's way out of its range for juicy east coast storms.

 

MDstorm

Southern-stream system=toss the GFS. After it's performance with the last storm, I am inclined to toss it if there is agreement between the euro, ggem, nam, ukmet and JMA.

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Southern-stream system=toss the GFS. After it's performance with the last storm, I am inclined to toss it if there is agreement between the euro, ggem, nam, ukmet and JMA.

Obviously agree with not taking the GFS too literally at this point.  On the other hand, the Euro has been wavering with this system, even though the ensembles have been more solid.  Still a lot of time to go.  That's the problem with these "long lead systems".  They seem to  take forever to come to fruition (if they even do).

 

MDstorm

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Euro member output remains bullish on frozen. I hate that the snow algorithm is so flawed though. Over half the member shows 6"+ for DC from mon-wed. About 5" on the means. I'm sure there are freezing rain/sleet solutions in there but the euro clearly has a colder idea than the gfs overall.

 

Interesting change with this suite is  more members are picking up on multiple events d6-10. There's enough 12"+ members mixed in the period to make you drool. A few are 20"+

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