ers-wxman1 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Big whiff per the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wednesday a goner. See if 12z Euro holds on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wednesday a goner. See if 12z Euro holds on I wouldn't say it's gone, just a shift NW and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Big whiff per the 12z GFS It's an improvement over 6z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 GFS has a storm March 1st, but the flow is flat and it slides off the coast south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Winter over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Winter over quit sucking up to Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Winter over lol Next week when we're tracking multiple events, you're gonna look crazy. It's the GFS for chrissakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I love it when the GFS shows no snow and the rationale is that it's a bad model. It truly is entertaining. My WAG is the "snow threat" for Wednesday has about 1 1/2 hours of life left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I love it when the GFS shows no snow and the rationale is that it's a bad model. It truly is entertaining. My WAG is the "snow threat" for Wednesday has about 1 1/2 hours of life left. Plus yesterday it was good and the Euro was trending to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 I love it when the GFS shows no snow and the rationale is that it's a bad model. It truly is entertaining. My WAG is the "snow threat" for Wednesday has about 1 1/2 hours of life left. Plus yesterday it was good and the Euro was trending to it. blah blah blah....the March 1-3 threat is upon us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 blah blah blah....the March 1-3 threat is upon us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 wxwhyTemperatureSunAngle385X287X96.jpg I just stumbled across this site: http://www.gaisma.com/en/location/washington-district-of-columbia.html It has some pretty neat diagrams of the current sun path, angle, etc, which are current for today. Not sure if you've seen this or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 well, this looks interesting on the GGEM Day 6 pretty strong low in TX, looks like it may want to cut, but arctic air is close by http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 wxwhyTemperatureSunAngle385X287X96.jpg Guess that's finally valid now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I love it when the GFS shows no snow and the rationale is that it's a bad model. It truly is entertaining. My WAG is the "snow threat" for Wednesday has about 1 1/2 hours of life left. It's as if people forget that the models have sucked from this range all winter except for the the foreign globals for 2/12 Not saying we will come out of the pattern with anything (I think we will), but do people not remember the Euro had 0.04" on 1/19. For smart people we can be the dumbest f-ucking people sometimes...myself included... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Guess that's finally valid now we got accumulating street snow on March 25th last winter...I'm pretty sure canceling winter on 2/22 is kind of silly. When we have highs in the low 30s next week I am going to uproariously laugh at all the complainers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The last time we had a pv visit with a suppressed storm it still scraped us. Even when it seemed that we were totally out of the game just 2-3 days before. The weekend threat could easily be suppressed but do the odds really favor not even getting scraped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The last time we had a pv visit with a suppressed storm it still scraped us. Even when it seemed that we were totally out of the game just 2-3 days before. The weekend threat could easily be suppressed but do the odds really favor not even getting scraped? we are some of the stupidest people.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It's as if people forget that the models have sucked from this range all winter except for the the foreign globals for 2/12 Not saying we will come out of the pattern with anything (I think we will), but do people not remember the Euro had 0.04" on New Years eve? For smart people we can be the dumbest f-ucking people sometimes...myself included... Yup. I think its a good thing the GFS had a decent event, and has now lost it. And it is still there, its just not giving us squat verbatim. Still plenty of time for it to stagger its way late to the party again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 we got accumulating street snow on March 25th last winter...I'm pretty sure canceling winter on 2/22 is kind of silly. When we have highs in the low 30s next week I am going to uproariously laugh at all the complainers You and me both. Sun angle is often overplayed here, but it does become valid in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It's as if people forget that the models have sucked from this range all winter except for the the foreign globals for 2/12 Not saying we will come out of the pattern with anything (I think we will), but do people not remember the Euro had 0.04" on New Years eve? For smart people we can be the dumbest f-ucking people sometimes...myself included... I'm barely in track mode. We've seen it time and time again this year. Vorts are traversing the entire conus in just over 48 hours in this flow. Model accuracy to the point of being definitive with sensible wx beyond 3-4 days simply cannot be relied on in any way shape or form. The only knowns we have for the coming week or so is that some pretty anomalously cold air is on the way and it will snow east of the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 It's as if people forget that the models have sucked from this range all winter except for the the foreign globals for 2/12 Not saying we will come out of the pattern with anything (I think we will), but do people not remember the Euro had 0.04" on 1/19. For smart people we can be the dumbest f-ucking people sometimes...myself included... co sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You and me both. Sun angle is often overplayed here, but it does become valid in March. It's valid now, but who cares?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yup. I think its a good thing the GFS had a decent event, and has now lost it. And it is still there, its just not giving us squat verbatim. Still plenty of time for it to stagger its way late to the party again. The GFS didn't have an event on 2/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 we are some of the stupidest people.. I'm definitely guilty of falling in love too soon. Can't help it. But I'm rarely guilty of punting and cancelling too soon. And I can be dumb and stupid at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'm definitely guilty of falling in love too soon. Can't help it. But I'm rarely guilty of punting and cancelling too soon. And I can be dumb and stupid at the same time. Most of us non-mets are....and even mets can be sometimes....The amount of deference we show the models with specific events from outside 48-72 hours is absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You and me both. Sun angle is often overplayed here, but it does become valid in March. Time an event correctly and it becomes close to irrelevant. We had accumulating snow (including streets) on 3/25 last year with an almost perfect start time. Yeah, it all melted during the day, but who cares...snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Time an event correctly and it becomes close to irrelevant. We had accumulating snow (including streets) on 3/25 last year with an almost perfect start time. Yeah, it all melted during the day, but who cares...snow is snow. Considering the sun is only up less than 50% of the day, odds favor snow falling when there is no sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You and me both. Sun angle is often overplayed here, but it does become valid in March. Sun angle is an issue when we have a POS storm and marginal cold. Cold air wont be a problem this week. Just need a storm that can actually produce good rates for a few hours. It can snow and accumulate during the day In March. People make way too much of the SA crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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