Scraff Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Snow TV rocks this AM. You guys should flip it on, though I think it's a rerun. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Probably best to put today snow obs in the appropriate thread (not this thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Probably best to put today snow obs in the appropriate thread (not this thread) won't make any more, obs was supposed to be a statement, not necessarily an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Euro ensembles from 0z are pretty good compared to the op. About 5" on the means for dca for the Mon-wed period. Mslp track better as well. A good # of members have huge solutions but grain of salt with the flawed snow algorithm. If the low does track West we can still do really well with front end stuff. It's looking to be a pretty wet storm overall. Could be a 2 parter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Euro ensembles from 0z are pretty good compared to the op. About 5" on the means for dca for the Mon-wed period. Mslp track better as well. A good # of members have huge solutions but grain of salt with the flawed snow algorithm. If the low does track West we can still do really well with front end stuff. It's looking to be a pretty wet storm overall. Could be a 2 parteaccor according to JB the current track shown by EC and GFS , by the 500 MB pattern is correct, it will track almost over top of us, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Euro ensembles from 0z are pretty good compared to the op. About 5" on the means for dca for the Mon-wed period. Mslp track better as well. A good # of members have huge solutions but grain of salt with the flawed snow algorithm. If the low does track West we can still do really well with front end stuff. It's looking to be a pretty wet storm overall. Could be a 2 parter. There's still hope. I think we need to face reality that this will likely be a front end dump type deal and hope for the best with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 There's still hope. I think we need to face reality that this will likely be a front end dump type deal and hope for the best with that. It could be a front end then mix to rain then lull the secondary lp with rain to snow covering a 48 hour period. lol The evolution is very complicated. I'm baffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It could be a front end then mix to rain then lull the secondary lp with rain to snow covering a 48 hour period. lol The evolution is very complicated. I'm baffled. don't be you have done an outstanding job so far !!Thanks !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Wow gfs would out do the last ice storm. Verbatim surface maybe warm but thats probably a resolution issue, the setup is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Wow gfs would out do the last ice storm. Verbatim surface maybe warm but thats probably a resolution issue, the setup is nuts. ??? I don't know, from what I'm seeing the GFS set-up still looks like crap, perhaps even worse than previous cycles. It doesn't even have anything on the front-end, all the cold air is pretty well gone before anything arrives. The 2-m temps are above freezing even up toward where you're at (Frederick?) before any appreciable precip even gets here. At least through 144-h which is what I've seen up to so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Wow gfs would out do the last ice storm. Verbatim surface maybe warm but thats probably a resolution issue, the setup is nuts. Its cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The wavy front solution is becoming favored with shades of 94' ...and it really affects us all week with same baroclinic zone bringing more late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GFS has a signal March 7-8 for something on this run... would be cold enough with a 1035+ H nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Its cold rain 1030hp funneling. Surface panels verbatim suck but I see the point being made. The whole thing is super complicated. I'm not worrying much about op runs. They can change in a hurry (better or worse...not that it can get much worse than the 12z gfs) as the placement of the features are better resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 ??? I don't know, from what I'm seeing the GFS set-up still looks like crap, perhaps even worse than previous cycles. It doesn't even have anything on the front-end, all the cold air is pretty well gone before anything arrives. The 2-m temps are above freezing even up toward where you're at (Frederick?) before any appreciable precip even gets here. At least through 144-h which is what I've seen up to so far. It flirts with freezing line up this way for a 24 hour period from 0z Mon. to 0z Tues. Basically temps hovering between 32-34 if taken literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 lulz at 12z GGEM... tries to bring in 1051 H into Northern Plains at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GFS has a signal March 7-8 for something on this run... would be cold enough with a 1035+ H nearby March 6-10 appears to me to be the best window of opportunity for a true winter storm for our region. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It flirts with freezing line up this way for a 24 hour period from 0z Mon. to 0z Tues. Basically temps hovering between 32-34 if taken literally. Yeah, maybe out toward your way. Admittedly, with the detail on the NCEP maps it's not easy to identify any "pockets" of colder air with those chart resolutions; you get the 0C line and the +10C line, interpolation is up in the air between that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 GGEM is nice for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Starts at 1 am Monday...ice, then goes over to snow at around 8 am then continues until Tuesday around noon...lol I love the GGEM. EDIT..maybe ice hangs on until noonish Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Starts at 1 am Monday...ice, then goes over to snow at around 8 am then continues until Tuesday around noon...lol I love the GGEM. EDIT..maybe ice hangs on until noonish Monday. Yeah you get 2" of sleet, plus 18" of snow on the GGEM through end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 March 6-10 appears to me to be the best window of opportunity for a true winter storm for our region. MDstorm I'm not so sure early next week is simply rain for you guys. Let's see if we can trend more progressive with features, like we have all year, and get a colder solution here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 LOL at the Canadian! According to this run, I'll have 26" of snow on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Time for the King to weigh in...anybody got the goods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Time for the King to weigh in...anybody got the goods?I'm only out to 126. Not a good start. We're on the losing side of the boundary to start. It's going to be a long drawn out evolution. We'll see.ETA: I will say it's a bit more progressive down near the gulf coast. This is a net positive compared to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'm only out to 126. Not a good start. We're on the losing side of the boundary to start. It's going to be a long drawn out evolution. We'll see. ETA: I will say it's a bit more progressive down near the gulf coast. This is a net positive compared to last night. somebody in NYC forum says it's ice for us at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Monday trending nicely on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Monday trending nicely on the euro Yeah, this run seems better/going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Monday trending nicely on the euro Agreed. It backed off on running everything west and keeping us warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 somebody in NYC forum says it's ice for us at 144 It's almost 1" of liquid...rain to freezing rain to a little snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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