T. August Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I don't get why cold excites people. The arctic blast in early January was kinda cool because it was hyped so much but cold without snow is pointless. Upper 20's isn't even that cold. I think it's pretty cold, especially for D.C. That's like 18-20 degrees below average (I think). Throw in some wind (just about guaranteed) and wind chills will be in the mid-teens.... during the day. But I do agree.... Cold without snow kinda sucks. It makes me want Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Is the 18z GFS at 180 hours really any more accurate on average than the 12z GFS at 186 hours? It doesn't look like it, based on these slides: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_GCWMB_briefing_13dec2012_fyang.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 LOL Yep, kinda hard to go wrong there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Terrible GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Terrible GFS run We might get some tstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Terrible... Waste of cold air. Can't afford to waste cold air heading into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Terrible GFS run Don't give up. When I see people like Matt, Bob, HM positive, I feel pretty good. We are powerless anyway, might as well just enjoy the ride, count our blessings along the way. This has been a fantastic winter, even moreso when you compare it to expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 We might get some tstorms. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I don't get why cold excites people. The arctic blast in early January was kinda cool because it was hyped so much but cold without snow is pointless. Upper 20's isn't even that cold. Cold with snow is great. But I enjoy cold even without snow. Please bring it! With or without snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'm in.Beats the hell out of cold rain. If we're not getting snow let the rumbles commence. We have more pressing matters on hand. We have a lot of qpf collecting to the tune of .001/hr for the next 96 first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Beats the hell out of cold rain. If we're not getting snow let the rumbles commence. We have more pressing matters on hand. We have a lot of qpf collecting to the tune of .001/hr for the next 96 first I'd like to think the front end of the storm that used to be the storm after the storm still has a chance.. but the mid level pattern looks pretty shiite on the GFS. Fortunately it's probably wrong at least in details. But... I dunno, some flashbacks to the last few winters for some reason. SE ridge baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Don't give up. When I see people like Matt, Bob, HM positive, I feel pretty good. We are powerless anyway, might as well just enjoy the ride, count our blessings along the way. This has been a fantastic winter, even moreso when you compare it to expectations. Oh, I'm not hardly giving up, just commenting on what it shows. Nobody should be punting on a 174 hour run. Would be nice if the Euro holds or goes back to 0z last night's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'd like to think the front end of the storm that used to be the storm after the storm still has a chance.. but the mid level pattern looks pretty shiite on the GFS. Fortunately it's probably wrong at least in details. But... I dunno, some flashbacks to the last few winters for some reason. SE ridge baby. SE RIDGE can help in the right setup. Ahh, what the hell do I know. Think I'll just ride with you guys on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 SE RIDGE can help in the right setup. Ahh, what the hell do I know. Think I'll just ride with you guys on this one. It's a pretty bad run.. but it's probably not that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Look at the 00z GGEM. It will make you happy. SECS or HECS territory on D9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'd like to think the front end of the storm that used to be the storm after the storm still has a chance.. but the mid level pattern looks pretty shiite on the GFS. Fortunately it's probably wrong at least in details. But... I dunno, some flashbacks to the last few winters for some reason. SE ridge baby. With the tight wave spacing and continuous suppressive confluence above I think leaning towards the front end doing something at the very least is pretty reasonable. Unfortunately the evolution at the upper levels becomes quickly complicated once the storm comes ashore on the west coast. There's some nice blocking in general across Canada on all models. Doesn't mean any solution is wrong of course. I'm not even motivated to compare run over run panels. There are enough ingredients present to get a decent snow event for March standards. How those ingredients play together is the standard "we won't know for days" response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 So we have the canuks still on our side? Anybody have a better GGEM link? EDIT: NVM...found my old one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 So we have the canuks still on our side? Anybody have a better GGEM link? EDIT: NVM...found my old one. It has a decent storm at day 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 So we have the canuks still on our side? Anybody have a better GGEM link? EDIT: NVM...found my old one. It's not as good as 12z for Monday. Warmer and too close for comfort. D9-10 is ok but jv is never as good as varsity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It has a decent storm at day 9? It's a compact coastal that sticks us but I have more confidence extrapolating the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Watch this storm trend into a coastal Miller A and we all go crazy with 24-30 forecasts and then it busts badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 It has a decent storm at day 9? Destroys us with a tight little coastal. We know that's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Destroys us with a tight little coastal. We know that's not going to happen. yeah...I wasnt sure what you were referring to as the run isnt very good before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GFS MEX still going quite cold for Fri .. 27/17 at DCA.. around 10 for lows in the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GGEM out on ewall. Lets hope it beats the GFS and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GGEM out on ewall. Lets hope it beats the GFS and euro. it's not very good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Lol euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Strung out little low...strung out little low, whiff with virga and flurries, juicy snow to rain... DC adds four more inches to the seasonal total? Seven to one against. Anyone ? Beuller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 snowing now in east columbia md. funny after all I have read here for the last several day I consider this a successful forecast even with no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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