Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Seems like a lot of people are getting greedy now. We have had one of the best winters in my neck of the woods and also in philly. It's been cold throughout and people are upset we are loosing some chances in March?? Comon guys..if this was last year..well let's not bring that up. But lets bring the warm temps and spring thunderstorms back. It's been one heck of year tracking these storms. This isn't a Pennsylvania forum...your words might carry more weight in the proper forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Seems like a lot of people are getting greedy now. We have had one of the best winters in my neck of the woods and also in philly. It's been cold throughout and people are upset we are loosing some chances in March?? Comon guys..if this was last year..well let's not bring that up. But lets bring the warm temps and spring thunderstorms back. It's been one heck of year tracking these storms. Wrong forum dude. We dont live in Philly or York. We haven't had 60 inches of snow like you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS looks like cold snow monday to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS - we probably get 2-4" on the front end...the whole setup sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 major ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Who was it that made the big pronouncement that there would be a mega snowstorm 3/1 and if anyone disagreed their account would be suspended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Best NAO look yet on the GFS... for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS looks like cold snow monday to start it does. I'm not buying a warm wet solution on this one. h5 pattern to the north isn't going to let the storm just plow north and push all the mid/low level cold out of the way. Things seem to be trending away from a clean miller A but a messy miller B is fine too. A warm wet cutter/runner is unacceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 major ice storm? Nah, light snow then pouring sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Best NAO look yet on the GFS... for early next week. yes, but no worry about all that ridging in the east with respect to March 3rd?...the Atlantic looks great...hopefully the evolution changes a bit...and it is early so maybe it will.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Wednesday is looking pretty DOA per the GFS. This whole "epic" period looks DOA. I will maintain some hope for early next week, but trends aren't good and it looks like the kind of set up that has occurred often this winter, a pasting for places like Westminster and snow to 40 degree rain for I-95 and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 it does. I'm not buying a warm wet solution on this one. h5 pattern to the north isn't going to let the storm just plow north and push all the mid/low level cold out of the way. Things seem to be trending away from a clean miller A but a messy miller B is fine too. A warm wet cutter/runner is unacceptable. With a cutter at least we can score a few inches front end before a change to sleet, zr and rain. With a miller b good chance we whiff completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 yes, but no worry about all that ridging in the east with respect to March 3rd?...the Atlantic looks great...hopefully the evolution changes a bit...and it is early so maybe it will.. Definite concern but that's why it won't be a 2/13-14. It's still a winter storm threat...one that is actually legit. Because of the origin of the storm and trough coming from the West, we know that there will be a wave with plenty of moisture. Whereas this Wednesday and Saturday were at the mercy of proper wave amplification under a PV...that usually fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 With a cutter at least we can score a few inches front end before a change to sleet, zr and rain. With a miller b good chance we whiff completely. This isn't a miller b whiff setup. Those usually come from the vort diving out of canada and not one coming into CA and then tapping the gulf. There will be a big plume of waa in front if the gfs and euro ops have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This isn't a miller b whiff setup. Those usually come from the vort diving out of canada and not one coming into CA and then tapping the gulf. There will be a big plume of waa in front if the gfs and euro ops have the right idea. Correct. This isn't a Miller B setup. This setup is closer to something from 94' on the GFS, really...or earlier this winter, in December/January when the SE ridge flexes its muscle aloft (brings overrunning into cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This isn't a miller b whiff setup. Those usually come from the vort diving out of canada and not one coming into CA and then tapping the gulf. There will be a big plume of waa in front if the gfs and euro ops have the right idea. Thanks. Regardless, "trending" is a strange word to use when the event is more than 7 days away. This looks fairly similar to the ice storm we had feb 5th I think? I still wouldn't be surprised if this changes completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Thanks. Regardless, "trending" is a strange word to use when the event is more than 7 days away. This looks fairly similar to the ice storm we had feb 5th I think? I still wouldn't be surprised if this changes completely. Good point with the trending. Just as it trended to a 12" storm from D.C. to NYC, it trended to... well, not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The good model runs like the 12z GFS/00z EURO didn't split the PV as much, so there was more confluence. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The good model runs like the 12z GFS/00z EURO didn't split the PV as much, so there was more confluence. We'll see... I don't agree. The 18z run is definitely a net improvement from 12z run with the NAO-PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I don't agree. The 18z run is definitely a net improvement from 12z run with the NAO-PV. The warmer runs ended up dumping more energy out west, that is what I mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I don't agree. The 18z run is definitely a net improvement from 12z run with the NAO-PV. I'll stop posting, back to Dance with Dragons & icing my wisdom teeth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Correct. This isn't a Miller B setup. This setup is closer to something from 94' on the GFS, really...or earlier this winter, in December/January when the SE ridge flexes its muscle aloft (brings overrunning into cold). Since I'm pretty much in a take whatever I can get mode I can basically live with any solution that delivers some snow. The global ops seemed to join together today in running the 850/slp west of us and jumping. That's fine. Antecedent airmass will work for a time and there will likely be no shortage of moisture. I would still prefer the pretty miller A solution the euro had before 12z. lol There could easily be a long plume of overrunning moisture way out in front of the lp near the gulf. This would be more ideal given the time of year. Don't want to wait until it comes charging up (assuming it tracks west) with a consolidated precip shield. We would lose midlevels too quick and it would be a bummer. Just spitballing a little based on the 12-18z op suite. Euro ens seem more bullish about our prospects since last night even though the op took a big step in the wrong direction. All options are on the table including a complete whiff so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Wow teh 18zulu gdex is one snow wave after another. Usual sub-forum hot spots such as York continue to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The warmer runs ended up dumping more energy out west, that is what I mean.. You are correct that the 18z was stronger with this wave. The 12z ECMWF was off its rocker with dealing with that PV over SW Canada day 5-8. The EPS clearly showed that it was an outlier and that is why the model went warmer. But the increasingly better NAO situation means we cannot rule out a major winter storm early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 This storm bears a lot of resemblance to the feb 5th ice storm, but there is more cold air around so looks to be snow-sleet rathers than ice-rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Since I'm pretty much in a take whatever I can get mode I can basically live with any solution that delivers some snow. The global ops seemed to join together today in running the 850/slp west of us and jumping. That's fine. Antecedent airmass will work for a time and there will likely be no shortage of moisture. I would still prefer the pretty miller A solution the euro had before 12z. lol There could easily be a long plume of overrunning moisture way out in front of the lp near the gulf. This would be more ideal given the time of year. Don't want to wait until it comes charging up (assuming it tracks west) with a consolidated precip shield. We would lose midlevels too quick and it would be a bummer. Just spitballing a little based on the 12-18z op suite. Euro ens seem more bullish about our prospects since last night even though the op took a big step in the wrong direction. All options are on the table including a complete whiff so who knows. The 12z ECMWF was off the mark IMO with handling the PV that drifts into SW Canada. This, subsequently, causes the height rises over the SE. The GFS is simply stronger with the incoming wave; but, it also got increasingly slower/further SE with the PV over eastern Canada. Good trends today with the main features. The storm details are meaningless anyway at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS MEX has turned colder again.. now giving us an upper 20s high on Friday. Boring in snow talk but maybe interesting if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS MEX has turned colder again.. now giving us an upper 20s high on Friday. Boring in snow talk but maybe interesting if it happens. High 20s without snow is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GFS MEX has turned colder again.. now giving us an upper 20s high on Friday. Boring in snow talk but maybe interesting if it happens. I don't get why cold excites people. The arctic blast in early January was kinda cool because it was hyped so much but cold without snow is pointless. Upper 20's isn't even that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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