Casualbrain Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I was in grad school at App State in Boone NC during the March 93 "storm of the century" and since then winter ends for me I'm April. We were snowed in for two weeks straight that storm. Went stir crazy with cabin fever for about a year after Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 excuse me, are you referring to euro big storm next week, thanks in advance Yes, 3/3 period for storm after this weekend's foe NAO signal. Big trough with PNA spike 3/8-10 but I think that sets up 50/50 potential for wave 3/12-3/15. So many waves!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yes, 3/3 period for storm after this weekend's foe NAO signal. Big trough with PNA spike 3/8-10 but I think that sets up 50/50 potential for wave 3/12-3/15. So many waves!! gee thanks for the great answer!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yes, 3/3 period for storm after this weekend's foe NAO signal. Big trough with PNA spike 3/8-10 but I think that sets up 50/50 potential for wave 3/12-3/15. So many waves!! Snow boots for St Patty's then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Ind euro members are pretty into the mon-tues storm. Almost half of the members show 6"+. I've seen this a few times before this season. It doesn't take much for things to go down the crapper but for now the euro digs the setup and the storm. As HM just pointed out, things looks pretty good going forward next week. Nice pna ridge with split flow look. We aren't done for a while. This. Really, next two weeks easy look great. I'm staring at an amazing trough signal 3/8 -3/10 but trying to think past the model. It could end up not the biggie but set up a coastal just after. The PNA split is nice then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I might have to give Mon-tues some more credit for viability. Euro ensembles looked really good last night. All the ingredients. Pretty strong vort comes into the cali coast. Banana hp/confluece/50/50 down the line. It's kinda how we do a classic long track miller A. Doesn't look like a ton of spread on the means either. The key features are pretty defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 I might have to give Mon-tues some more credit for viability. Euro ensembles looked really good last night. All the ingredients. Pretty strong vort comes into the cali coast. Banana hp/confluece/50/50 down the line. It's kinda how we do a classic long track miller A. Doesn't look like a ton of spread on the means either. The key features are pretty defined. Yea, when I see a banana high feature in the mix, I don't worry too much about the cutting GFS solution from 0z. Like Matt said, too bad this is 8 days away, or I'd be super excited (as would most here). As it stands now, it's nice...something to look forward to..but still D8...and we've seen things look good before at this range only to come completely undone by D5 and hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yea, when I see a banana high feature in the mix, I don't worry too much about the cutting GFS solution from 0z. Like Matt said, too bad this is 8 days away, or I'd be super excited (as would most here). As it stands now, it's nice...something to look forward to..but still D8...and we've seen things look good before at this range only to come completely undone by D5 and hold. Agreed. The nice thing is the setup is already in place for the most part by d4. Really sweet ridging from AK to GL and fairly strong closed ull approaching the west coast. We all know the risks at long leads but this isn't a thread the needle. I'd more worried about a sheared or suppressed solution than what the gfs op is showing. The gefs does favor a crappy west track attm so there are some kinks in the armor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yea Bob the 3rd is the "easiest" storm of all the ones we've been tracking. The setup is pretty well defined even by 120 hours...The GFS keeps showing a warmer solution because its breaking off a piece of the "PV" and sending it west, that enhances the western shortwave and weakens the would-be confluence. Thats the big issue with this event in my eyes, so watch the northern branch. Many days to iron out, but fun times ahead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS was slightly improved @ h5 for Saturday but the surface got worse. Door is definitely open for a light event....that won't be resolved until 15 minutes before it starts. Or doesn't start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS coming up with something this run....but it MAY be too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS coming up with something this run....but it MAY be too far west It stepped right towards the euro. Big improvement @ h5 from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 How we lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 How we lookin? Big storm and cold air damn look but too far west to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Are we talking about March 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It never really fully develops though...vort kinda shears out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GFS coming up with something this run....but it MAY be too far west It's a good hit NW...DC and southeast would have a lot of mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It never really fully develops though...vort kinda shears out EURO didn't have that intense of a shortwave either... This was a big step towards EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Big storm and cold air damn look but too far west to be all snow. At least it went from a runner to a miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Its a step....Certainly something to track with potential of more than just conversational at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 At least it went from a runner to a miller b There is a 50-50 and semi-blocking so it runs into a wall...problem is there is a lot of ridging in the east....it is natural for a storm to try and cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 There is a 50-50 and semi-blocking so it runs into a wall...problem is there is a lot of ridging in the east....it is natural for a storm to try and cut Pretty big differences between the euro/gfs @ h5 behind the vort. GFS wants to drop a strong vort behind the storm that pumps up heights in front but the euro is simply a wall above us. Either is plausible. Could just as easily end up sheared/weak/suppressed. Hurry up and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Pretty big differences between the euro/gfs @ h5 behind the vort. GFS wants to drop a strong vort behind the storm that pumps up heights in front but the euro is simply a wall above us. Either is plausible. Could just as easily end up sheared/weak/suppressed. Hurry up and wait. Yeah, I'm not sure the GFS took a step toward the Euro per se...I think it just realized the cold/confluence to our north isn't going to buckle that easy. I'm not too worried about it (7.5 days away and all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GGEM is .20+/- for saturday fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Big storm and cold air damn look but too far west to be all snow. It depends on the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Here's the 12z GFS WeatherBELL March 4 snow map just for fun. http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2014022412/washdc/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_65.png About .5" is from previous event(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Canadian looks good at 156 hours for the 3rd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Quick glance at 12z GGEM in la la land has something for March 3-4... but it doesn't look big... also appears to be something setting up at the end of the run (Mar 6th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Here's the 12z GFS WeatherBELL March 4 snow map just for fun. http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2014022412/washdc/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_65.png About .5" is from previous event(s). cant access Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Canadian looks good at 156 hours for the 3rd storm. It really doesn't look much at all when you get to 180... we get brushed by heaviest is south of us in C VA down to NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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